Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.,Ltd.(603136) 信达证券·2024-04-29 09:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to Tianmu Lake (603136 SH) based on its strong recovery in revenue and profitability, supported by the hotel business and new project developments [12] Core Viewpoints - Revenue and Profit Recovery: In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 630 million yuan, a 25 2% increase compared to 2019, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 147 million yuan, an 18 8% increase compared to 2019 [12] - Hotel Business Contribution: The hotel segment contributed significantly to revenue growth, with a 45% increase in 2023 compared to 2022, generating 207 million yuan in revenue [12] - Scenic Area Performance: The scenic area business showed recovery, with revenue from Shanshui Garden and Nanshan Bamboo Sea reaching 179 million yuan and 146 million yuan respectively, up 8 7% and 7 5% compared to 2019 [12] - New Projects and State-owned Capital Support: The company is advancing new projects such as the drift project and Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II, with state-owned capital (Liyang Chengfa) becoming the largest shareholder, providing financial and resource support [12] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Growth: Revenue is expected to grow from 630 million yuan in 2023 to 873 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 8 9% [2] - Net Profit Growth: Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 147 million yuan in 2023 to 237 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 13 4% [2] - Gross Margin Improvement: Gross margin improved significantly from 36 2% in 2022 to 54 3% in 2023, and is expected to reach 58 6% by 2026 [2] - ROE Improvement: ROE increased from 1 7% in 2022 to 11 0% in 2023, and is forecasted to stabilize around 12% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Valuation Metrics - P/E Ratio: The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 24 24x in 2023 to 15 01x in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [2] - P/B Ratio: The P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 2 67x in 2023 to 1 82x in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation [2] Key Projects and Strategic Initiatives - Drift Project: Expected to open in the summer of 2024, targeting the summer tourism market [12] - Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Animal Kingdom Projects: These projects aim to enrich the company's tourism product portfolio [12] - Transportation Improvements: The Shanghai-Suzhou-Huzhou railway, expected to open by the end of 2024, will enhance accessibility for tourists from Shanghai, bringing Tianmu Lake within a one-hour travel radius [12] Industry and Market Position - Tourism Recovery: The company benefits from the recovery of the tourism industry, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region, with strong operational capabilities and a competitive edge in the leisure tourism market [12] - State-owned Capital Advantage: The involvement of state-owned capital provides financial stability and resource access, supporting the company's long-term growth [12]