Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's net profit for Q1 2024 was 5.871 billion yuan, a significant decline of 38.3% year-on-year, which was below expectations. This decline is attributed to challenges in underwriting due to adverse weather conditions and increased travel, as well as fluctuations in capital markets affecting investment income [2][5] - The report indicates that the high base from the previous year is a core factor dragging down the Return on Equity (ROE), which was 2.5% in Q1 2024, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][5] - Despite the challenges, the company is noted to have certain resilience compared to its peers, with absolute performance levels still superior to the industry [2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 457.203 billion yuan in 2023 to 569.764 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [1][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 24.585 billion yuan in 2023 to 34.478 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 9.1% [1][7] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 29.641 billion yuan, 32.330 billion yuan, and 34.478 billion yuan respectively [2][5] Performance Analysis - The average underwriting leverage remained stable at 0.48 in Q1 2024, with insurance service revenue growth of 5.9% slightly outpacing equity growth of 5.3% [2][5] - The underwriting profit margin decreased from 4.3% in Q1 2023 to 2.1% in Q1 2024, primarily due to increased claims from adverse weather events [2][5] - The total investment return rate fell from 1.3% in Q1 2023 to 0.8% in Q1 2024, with investment income declining by 36.4% year-on-year [2][5] Competitive Positioning - The report compares the company's performance with its peers, noting that its comprehensive cost ratio of 97.9% in Q1 2024 is better than that of its competitors [2][5] - In terms of original premium growth for Q1 2024, the company is positioned behind its peers, with a focus on upgrading business quality and moderating premium growth in the auto insurance segment [2][5]
2024年一季报点评：高基数拖累承保与投资两端表现