业绩如期高增，水火绿均存边际增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.712 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.705 billion yuan, up 64.31% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue was 14.108 billion yuan, a 6.43% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.035 billion yuan, up 26.14% year-on-year [1][2]. - The increase in hydropower profits is driven by rising electricity prices, with expectations for profit growth as water levels improve. The company completed hydropower generation of 93.643 billion kWh in 2023, with a corresponding electricity price of 0.300 yuan/kWh, up 10.29% year-on-year [1]. - Thermal power performance has significantly improved due to lower coal prices and increased electricity demand, with net profits from thermal power reaching 1.429 billion yuan in 2023, compared to a loss of 1.659 billion yuan in the previous year [1]. - The company continues to expand its renewable energy assets, with significant increases in wind and solar generation, contributing to net profits of 738 million yuan from its subsidiary [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 56.712 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 59.004 billion yuan in 2024, 64.196 billion yuan in 2025, and 70.146 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 4.0%, 8.8%, and 9.3% respectively [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 6.705 billion yuan, with projections of 7.920 billion yuan in 2024, 8.817 billion yuan in 2025, and 9.361 billion yuan in 2026, indicating growth rates of 64.3%, 18.1%, 11.3%, and 6.2% respectively [2][5]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 36.1%, expected to rise to 40.0% in 2024 and maintain around 41.6% in the following years [2][5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.0 in 2023 to 12.1 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation [2][5].