网络稳定性修复，盈利水平边际改善

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yunda Holdings (002120 SZ) with a target price of RMB 9 38 per share based on a 14x PE multiple for 2024 [4] Core Views - Yunda's network stability has improved with 76 self-operated hub transfer centers and a 14 84% increase in franchisees to 4 851 in 2023 leading to enhanced service capabilities and reduced delivery times [2] - Despite a 10 08% YoY decline in single-ticket revenue to RMB 2 30 in 2023 cost reduction measures helped lower core operating costs by RMB 849 million and single-ticket core operating costs by 11% [2] - The company achieved a single-ticket gross profit of RMB 0 20 and a single-ticket net profit of RMB 0 09 in 2023 showing marginal improvement [2] - For 2024-2026 the report forecasts EPS of RMB 0 67 RMB 0 80 and RMB 0 91 respectively with revenue growth of 12% 12% and 9% [2][29] Financial Performance - In 2023 Yunda reported revenue of RMB 44 983 billion a 5 17% YoY decline but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9 58% to RMB 1 625 billion [2] - In Q1 2024 revenue grew 6 50% YoY to RMB 11 156 billion with net profit attributable to shareholders up 15 02% to RMB 412 million [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 9 55% in 2023 up 0 42 percentage points YoY while net margin rose to 3 61% up 0 49 percentage points [23] Industry Position - Yunda operates in the mid-to-low end express delivery market ranking third in terms of business volume with a daily average of 51 655 million parcels [10] - The express delivery industry is segmented into mid-to-high end and mid-to-low end markets with Yunda competing alongside other major players like ZTO STO and YTO [9] Operational Improvements - Yunda has optimized its transportation solutions by reducing pickup and delivery times and improving loading rates leveraging its scale and intensive effects [15] - The company has enhanced network stability through its "Two In One Out" project maintaining 100% self-operated hub transfer centers and increasing franchisees [16] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 50 594 billion in 2024 RMB 56 452 billion in 2025 and RMB 61 372 billion in 2026 with net profit expected to reach RMB 1 935 billion RMB 2 307 billion and RMB 2 640 billion respectively [29] - The report forecasts a gradual improvement in gross margin to 8 18% 8 37% and 8 47% for 2024-2026 driven by cost reductions and operational efficiency [28]