Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 210.31 HKD per share and 26.54 USD per share [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.96 billion RMB for Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.448 billion RMB, down 13.0% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 2.224 billion RMB, up 15.8% year-on-year. The total business volume reached 7.171 billion pieces, an increase of 13.9% year-on-year [1][4]. - The strategic focus has shifted towards enhancing service quality while maintaining reasonable business scale and profitability. In Q1 2024, the company achieved a better single-package profit level, with an adjusted profit per package of 0.31 RMB, an increase of 0.01 RMB year-on-year and 0.06 RMB quarter-on-quarter [1][4]. - The supply-demand environment is improving, with a forecasted business volume growth of 15%-18% for the year. The company’s capital expenditure decreased by 26.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, indicating a continued reduction in scale [1][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 44.004 billion RMB, 49.424 billion RMB, and 54.317 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 10% [4]. - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 12.73 RMB, 14.89 RMB, and 17.42 RMB, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.46, 11.51, and 9.83 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.86% in 2024 to 17.98% in 2026 [4].
中通快递-W：战略重心调整，盈利水平提升