Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for ZTO Express (02057 HK) with a target price of HKD 218, representing a 17% upside from the current price [1] Core Views - ZTO Express achieved revenue of RMB 9 96 billion in Q1 2024, up 10 9% YoY, with adjusted net profit increasing 15 8% YoY to RMB 2 22 billion [1] - The company handled 7 17 billion parcels in Q1 2024, a 13 9% YoY increase, maintaining a 19 3% market share [1] - ZTO is focusing on service quality improvement while pursuing profitable growth, with a strategic shift towards quality over quantity [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 gross profit was RMB 3 billion, up 19% YoY, while net profit declined 13% YoY to RMB 1 45 billion [1] - Single ticket revenue decreased 2 5% YoY to RMB 1 36, while single ticket cost dropped 5 3% to RMB 0 94 [1] - Adjusted single ticket net profit increased to RMB 0 31, up RMB 0 01 YoY [1] Operational Metrics - ZTO operates 31,000 pickup/delivery outlets and 10,000 self-owned line-haul vehicles, including 9,100 high-capacity vehicles [1] - The company has 3,800 transportation routes and 96 sorting centers [1] - ZTO's market share in Q1 2024 was 19 3%, leading competitors like YTO (15%), Yunda (13 32%), and STO (12 36%) [1] Future Outlook - ZTO expects full-year 2024 parcel volume between 34 73-35 64 billion, representing 15-18% YoY growth [1] - The company forecasts industry growth of 15-20% for 2024 [1] - ZTO plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 40% starting from 2024, with semi-annual dividend payments [1] Valuation - The report values ZTO at 15x 2024E PE, implying a market cap of RMB 163 9 billion (approximately HKD 180 5 billion) [1] - 2024-2026E net profit is projected at RMB 10 9 billion, RMB 12 8 billion, and RMB 14 1 billion respectively [1] - Corresponding PE ratios are estimated at 13x, 11x, and 10x for 2024-2026 [1]
中通快递-W：2024年一季报点评：聚焦服务质量提升，强调数量质量并举高质量发展