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小鹏汽车-W:系列点评二:2024Q1毛利改善 大模型智驾加速
09868XPENG(09868) 民生证券·2024-05-23 01:01

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of HKD 34.65 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of CNY 6.55 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 49.8% [2][5]. - Vehicle sales for Q1 2024 were approximately 22,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 63.7% [2][5]. - The automotive business gross margin improved to 5.5%, up 7.9 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was CNY 1.37 billion, a reduction in loss compared to the previous year, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. Revenue Summary - Q1 2024 revenue reached CNY 6.55 billion, with automotive business revenue at CNY 5.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 54.7% [2][5]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle increased from CNY 203,000 in Q4 2023 to CNY 254,000 in Q1 2024 [2][5]. - Other business revenue for Q1 2024 was CNY 1.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 93.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.1% [2][5]. Profitability Summary - The gross profit for Q1 2024 was CNY 840 million, with an overall gross margin of 12.9%, up 11.2 percentage points year-on-year and 6.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. - The improvement in gross margin was attributed to cost reductions and an improved product mix, although some growth was offset by inventory impairments related to the P5 model [2][5]. Expense Summary - R&D expenses for Q1 2024 were CNY 1.35 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3% [3][5]. - Selling and administrative expenses were CNY 1.39 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28.3% [3][5]. Sales Channel Expansion - As of Q1 2024, the company had 574 sales centers across 178 cities, an increase of 74 centers from Q4 2023, with plans to reach 600 centers by Q3 2024 [5][6]. - The company reported a cash and cash equivalents total of CNY 41.4 billion as of Q1 2024, a decrease of CNY 4.3 billion from Q4 2023, indicating a relatively low short-term liquidity risk [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q2 2024 vehicle sales to range between 29,000 and 32,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.0% to 37.9% [5][6]. - Projected revenue for Q2 2024 is estimated to be between CNY 7.5 billion and CNY 8.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 48.1% to 63.9% [5][6].