高盛：第720期：第三次全会预览，台积电，石头科技，汽车，日本工业电子，教育，美光 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL, Miniso, Hitachi Construction Machinery, and TBO Tek, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [4][6][7]. Core Insights - Listed Chinese corporates returned over Rmb2 trillion to shareholders in the past three years through dividends and buybacks, supported by strong policy initiatives and low payout ratios [2][8]. - CATL is positioned to benefit from the global electrification trend due to its upgraded battery product mix and resilient market share, despite facing cost inflation in Europe [4][6]. - Miniso's management is focused on consistent entrepreneurship and long-term growth, with a year-to-date same-store sales growth tracking around 100% [6][7]. - TBO Tek is expected to achieve a 21% CAGR in revenues from FY24 to FY30, driven by a large and fragmented total addressable market (TAM) [6][7]. Summary by Sections China Shareholder Returns - The report emphasizes the strong position of Chinese companies to return cash to shareholders, with a focus on improving payout ratios and fiscal revenue [2][8]. - The construction of a China Shareholder Returns Portfolio includes three equity cohorts: Stable Cash Cows, Dividend/Buyback Surprise Candidates, and Select Central/Local SOEs [2]. CATL Insights - CATL's efficient production lines and supply-chain advantages are expected to sustain its cost competitiveness in the European market [4][6]. - The company has a 12-month target price of Rmb304, reflecting its growth potential in the battery sector [4]. Miniso Insights - Miniso's store upgrades are driving sales growth, with management optimistic about performance despite challenging consumption conditions [6][7]. - The 12-month target price for Miniso is set at US$31.20/HK$61 [6]. Hitachi Construction Machinery Insights - Hitachi Construction Machinery is expected to see growth in mid-sized and large construction machinery, particularly in the Americas [6][7]. - The company has a 12-month target price of ¥5,250, indicating a bullish outlook [6]. TBO Tek Insights - TBO Tek's business model is characterized by strong execution, asset-light balance sheet, and low competition risks, positioning it as a steady earnings compounder [6][7]. - The 12-month target price for TBO Tek is Rs1,970, reflecting its growth potential in the travel distribution sector [6].

高盛：美洲清洁技术太阳能上周在欧洲际太阳能展上我们学到的五件事;对ENPH和其他公司最有利 ...

Investment Rating - The report highlights a Buy rating for BONB and CCB, a Sell rating for ICBC and ABC, and a Neutral rating for CMB due to full valuation [46]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of recent property funding support measures in China, which are expected to stimulate local government debt financing to address refinancing needs and reduce housing inventory [46]. - It updates FY24-26E PPOP/net profit estimates, reflecting higher government lending in bank portfolios, which positively affects capital through an expansion of lower risk-weighted assets [46]. - The report anticipates a continued reduction in Net Interest Margin (NIM) to 1.4% by 2026, down from 1.7% in 2023, alongside an increase in property loans to RMB 4.5 trillion to aid in housing inventory reduction [46]. - An annual capital release of RMB 0.7 trillion is projected for the covered banks [46]. Summary by Sections Section: NIM Forecast - The report provides a forecast of the average NIM for covered banks, indicating a decline from 1.7% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2026 [46]. Section: Property Loans - It estimates a higher balance of RMB 4.5 trillion in property loans to facilitate the reduction of housing inventory [46]. Section: Capital Release - The report projects an annual capital release of RMB 0.7 trillion for the covered banks, indicating a positive outlook on capital management [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for certain banks, specifically highlighting BONB and CCB, while rating ICBC and ABC as "Sell" and CMB as "Neutral" [128][132]. Core Insights - The total onshore local government debt is estimated at Rmb 102 trillion, reflecting an 8% increase from prior estimates, driven by a net increase of Rmb 6 trillion in official government debt [117][119]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in net interest margins (NIM) for covered banks, projecting a decrease to 1.4% by 2026 from 1.7% in 2023, due to higher local government debt growth and lower yields [127][128]. - A capital shortfall of Rmb 0.3 trillion is expected for covered banks over 2024-26, necessitating new capital to manage losses and maintain dividends [129][132]. Summary by Sections Local Government Debt - Local government debt has increased significantly, with covered banks growing their local government debt by Rmb 4.4 trillion, a 13% increase from previous estimates [119][120]. - The share of local government debt held by large SOE banks has risen to 33%, while non-covered banks have reduced their exposure to 62% [120]. NIM and Capital Requirements - The report projects a further decline in NIM for covered banks, estimating decreases of 16, 7, and 1 basis points for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [7][8]. - Covered banks are expected to release Rmb 0.7 trillion in capital annually, positively impacting their CET1 ratio by 18 basis points each year through 2026 [128]. Property Loans and Losses - The report outlines three scenarios for property loan growth, with estimates of Rmb 2.2 trillion, Rmb 4.5 trillion, and Rmb 6.5 trillion in new property loans over the next three years [36][44]. - A projected loss of Rmb 0.3 trillion is anticipated on the Rmb 4.5 trillion in new property loans, with an implied non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of approximately 6% [23][128]. Capital Management - The report indicates that banks may need to lower their target CET1 ratios to release more capital, which could raise concerns about asset quality and leverage [11][47]. - Convertible bonds have been a popular method for banks to raise new capital, comprising 60% of total new capital raised in the past five years [88][129].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Equity Sachs Research 11 June 2024 7:45PM HKT CATL (300750.SZ) 研报数据加V：shuinu987 300750.SZ 12m Price Target: Rmb304.00Price: Rmb188.77Upside: 61.0% Eric Shen 852-2978-7954leric.s n@gs.cor 报数据加V Intensified EV price competition is leading to concerns around CATL and Tesla supply contract renewal in 2025. Some investors see downside risk for CATL, arguing that it enjoys unsustainable price premiums on batteriesysupplied to Tesla. However, we see these concerns as overstated ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company Apptronik Core Insights - Apptronik is focused on building versatile humanoid robots, leveraging Nvidia's AI technology and aiming for a market with a total addressable market of USD 30 trillion [5][3] - The company anticipates shipping hundreds of robots initially, scaling up to thousands as it develops its product offerings [5] - Apptronik's competitive advantages include its integration of complex robotic systems, partnerships with Nvidia and Mercedes-Benz, and a focus on industrial-grade robots [5][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Apptronik, founded in 2016, is a spinout from the Human Centered Robotics Lab at the University of Texas at Austin, and launched its general-purpose humanoid robot Apollo – Alpha in 2023 [3] - The company has developed over 10 previous robots, including NASA's Valkyrie robot, and is collaborating with Mercedes-Benz to explore robotics applications [3] AI/Software Strategy - Apptronik's AI strategy involves using Nvidia's AI offerings and foundation models to enhance robot training and performance [3] - The CEO emphasizes that software is a primary bottleneck for achieving efficient robot applications, which is closely tied to hardware capabilities [5] Product Design and Features - The design of Apptronik's robots focuses on human-centered features, safety certifications, and modularity, allowing for adaptability to various mobility platforms [3] - The robots are designed with 30 degrees of freedom and utilize linear actuators for improved movement efficiency [3] Market Potential - The humanoid robot market is estimated to be USD 30 trillion, with applications ranging from manufacturing to home care [5] - Apptronik aims to initially target industrial applications, particularly in logistics and the automotive industry, before expanding to other sectors [5] Business Model - Apptronik plans to offer a "Robot as a Service" (RAAS) model initially, transitioning to a capital expenditure model later [5] - The company targets a manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) of USD 50,000, positioning itself for high product quality and performance [5] Competitive Landscape - Apptronik believes it has a competitive edge over other humanoid robot startups by producing industrial-grade robots and focusing on data, versatility, and scalability [5] - The company has established significant partnerships with Nvidia and Mercedes-Benz, enhancing its market position [5]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 28 May 2024 | 7:54PM HKT China Software SaaS and Localization carry better visibility; downgrading Chinasoft Intl/iSoftstone and Thundersoft ： s h u i n u 9 8 7 0 加 V 据 数 报 研 和 要 Lower visibility ahead: We remain positive on Chinasoft Intl. and iSoftstone’s Allen纪 Chang 研 调+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com business migration towards project-based IT services from traditional IT services, 一 手 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 多 更 and Thundersoft’s diversifying into automotive softw ...

水木调研纪 关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman 高成 Sachs 可盗 27 May 2024 I 4:17PM CST China Healthcare: Diagnostics and Clinical Labs Intense competition in ICL: Cut Kingmed/Dian's TP/earnings, d/g Kingmed to Neutral; Buy AmoyDx 开报数据 We believe the headwinds ICLs are facing are more than short term pressure from Covid aftermath and may last longer than we had previously expected due to lower volumes, higher-than-expected competition and price cuts for diagnostic items. We now factor in intense competition and declining OPM, and ch ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) with a 12-month price target of $16.00 (ADR) and HK$62.30 (H-share) [12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights healthy subscriber and ARPU growth for FY24, with net adds expected to normalize after a strong 1Q performance [2][4]. - Management anticipates further growth in non-subscription revenue streams, particularly in advertising and artist merchandise, aiming for double-digit percentage growth in overall non-subs business in 2024 [8][9]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) target is set at approximately 42% for FY24, with a long-term online music GPM target of 45% [9][10]. Summary by Sections Subscriber Growth - Management reported a net addition of 6.8 million subscribers in 1Q, driven by promotional activities during the Chinese New Year and effective marketing strategies [3][4]. - Future net adds are projected at 3.5 million in 2Q and 3 million in both 3Q and 4Q, leading to a total for the year that is slightly lower than 2023 but significantly higher than 2022 [4][5]. ARPU Growth - The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to stabilize with a healthy upward trend, although the year-over-year growth rate for ARPU in 2024 is likely to be lower than in 2023 [7][8]. - The target for ARPU is set to reach RMB 15 over the next 3-5 years, reflecting evolving user payment habits [8][9]. Non-Subscription Business - The report anticipates normalization in advertising growth following a low base in 1Q, with solid progress in digital albums and offline concerts [8][9]. - Management aims for double-digit percentage growth in overall non-subs business in 2024 [8][9]. Margin Expansion - Management maintains a guidance of 42% GPM for FY24, with expectations for continued improvement in online music GPM [9][10]. - The upward margin trend is supported by strong operating leverage, with revenue growth outpacing content costs [9][10].