行业周报 | 有色金属 美伊冲突升级，持续看好贵金属+战略小金属 有色金属行业周报（2026.2.15-2026.3.1） 本周核心关注三：缅北武装冲突再起，引发市场锡矿供应担忧 据 SMM，2026 年 2 月中下旬以来，缅甸掸邦北部局势再度紧张，引发市场 对缅甸锡矿供应链的担忧。此次冲突区域为贵概（Kutkai）地区。由于曼相 矿区深处佤邦腹地，地理位置偏东，与贵概相距较远，暂未受到贵概战火的 直接波及，锡矿跨境发运也暂未面临实质性阻断风险。不过鉴于缅北整体地 缘政治形势复杂多变，市场仍需持续关注边境地区可能引发的连锁反应。 本周核心关注四：美国最高法院裁决判定依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收 的关税违法，但特朗普警告将采取更高关税措施 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权。不过，美最高法院的 这项裁决仅限制总统通过《国际紧急经济权力法》实施关税，并未完全剥夺 其征收关税的权力。裁决公布后，特朗普 20 日转而依据《1974 年贸易法》 第 122 条，宣布加征"全球进口关税"，税率 10%，为期 150 天，以取代 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 假期金属价格走强，看好节后配置机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 铜铝节后易涨难跌，重视板块机会。商品端，铜铝节后易涨难跌，中长期经济底部与逆全球化 促进供需结构优化，弹性可期：1）短期，美国对降息及铜关税态度，依然是短期工业金属价格 走势的主导因素，在二者并未发生根本性转变之前，维持铜铝趋势看涨判断，节后国内金三银 四旺季、中美会谈、联储主席换届等均构成催化；2）中期，美联储降息引领全球趋势宽松促进 铜铝周期上行；3）长期，逆全球化加剧各国对资源争夺，铜铝中枢趋势上行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss various segments of the metals industry, including precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic metals, highlighting their current status and future outlooks [1][5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Investment Drivers**: Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are driving the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of precious metals. Central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks are long-term support factors. For instance, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a projected global central bank purchase of approximately 683 tons in 2025 [1][3]. - **Price Trends**: Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to hold around $5,100 per ounce. The valuation of gold stocks remains low, with companies like Shandong Gold International and Zhongjin Gold being recommended for investment [3][10]. - **Market Performance**: During the Spring Festival, gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, with gold surpassing 5,100 yuan per gram and silver exceeding $85 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators [2]. Industrial Metals - **Demand Shift**: The demand structure for industrial metals is shifting from traditional sectors to electric infrastructure, renewable energy, and AI-driven data centers. This transition is expected to sustain an upward cycle for the next two to three years, with copper and aluminum valuations being attractive at around 10 times earnings [5]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply side faces challenges such as depletion of high-grade mines, geopolitical risks, and insufficient exploration investments, leading to tight supply conditions [5]. Energy Metals - **Market Outlook**: Lithium inventories are decreasing amid strong demand, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices. Cobalt and nickel are benefiting from quota and supply restrictions, while strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and uranium have solid long-term fundamentals despite short-term price corrections [6][12]. Steel Industry - **Current Challenges**: The steel industry is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reducing or halting production. Attention is needed on supply-side policies and support from the real estate sector. A potential improvement in demand is expected post-spring commencement [7][32]. - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for the steel industry is projected to be around 7 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 112 times [1][32]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - **Tariff Implications**: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous tariffs imposed by the former president were invalid, but details on refunds remain unclear. Future fluctuations in import tariffs may impact precious metal prices, with expectations of upward price movements in 2026, albeit less volatile than in 2025 [1][7]. Strategic Metals - **Price Trends**: Recent price increases for light rare earths, such as neodymium oxide, have been noted, with a 12% increase year-on-year. Heavy rare earths, however, are experiencing price declines due to weaker demand [20][21]. - **Supply Control**: Future supply is expected to be tightly controlled, with significant reductions in mining and refining quotas anticipated, which will maintain upward pressure on prices [23][25]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, and various firms in the lithium and nickel sectors are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable market positions and growth prospects [3][10][12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.

根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国原铝(电解铝)产量为387万吨，同比增长3%；2025年1-12月 中国原铝(电解铝)累计产量为4501.6万吨，累计增长2.4%。 上市企业：中国铝业（601600）,南山铝业（600219）,云铝股份（000807）,新疆众和（600888）,神火股 份（000933）,中孚实业（600595）,焦作万方（000612）,东阳光（600673）,天山铝业（002532）,闽发 铝业（002578） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国原铝（电解铝）行业发展战略规划及投资机会预测报 告》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2020-2025年中国原铝(电解铝)产量统计图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhongfu Industrial (600595) experienced a reverse sector decline on February 13, 2026, with a drop of 4.92% to a closing price of 8.11 yuan, while the overall non-ferrous metal sector fell by 3.36% and the aluminum concept sector by 1.75%. This decline is attributed to several factors including profit-taking after positive earnings forecasts, insider selling, subsidiary performance issues, capital outflows, and technical adjustments [1][2][4][5]. Performance and Earnings - On January 21, 2026, the company announced an expected net profit increase of up to 141.59% year-on-year for 2025, with a non-recurring net profit increase of up to 181.61%. However, this positive news was gradually priced in by the market, leading to a stock price peak of 10.83 yuan on January 29 before entering a correction phase [1]. Insider Selling - On February 5, 2026, the company announced that shareholder and director Song Zhibin planned to reduce holdings by up to 2.8257 million shares, accounting for approximately 0.07% of the total share capital. Although the reduction is relatively small, it raised concerns about short-term liquidity in the market due to the stock being at a high point [2]. Subsidiary Development - The subsidiary Guangyuan Linfeng Aluminum Materials reported a loss of 9.667 million yuan in 2024, and while it was profitable in the first three quarters of 2025, the earnings showed significant volatility. Additionally, the new investment project for 3 million wheel hub production capacity has a long payback period of 10 years, which may affect investor confidence amid intense industry competition [3]. Capital and Technical Analysis - On February 13, 2026, there was a net outflow of 78.6542 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 60.5181 million yuan, indicating a tendency for institutional funds to exit. Technically, the stock price fell below the 5-day moving average of 8.25 yuan, and the MACD indicator showed a bearish arrangement, putting pressure on the short-term moving average system [4]. Industry Sector Situation - Despite the overall decline in the non-ferrous metal sector, Zhongfu Industrial's decline was greater than the sector average, likely due to specific risks such as uncertainties in hedging operations and debt structure being re-evaluated by the market. During the same period, the aluminum concept sector's decline of 1.75% was less than the non-ferrous metal sector's decline of 3.36%, indicating significant internal differentiation within the sector [5].

Group 1 - Zhongfu Industrial experienced a decline of 5.04% on February 13, with a stock price of 8.10 yuan per share, a trading volume of 453 million yuan, a turnover rate of 1.36%, and a total market capitalization of 32.464 billion yuan [1] - The company, founded on January 28, 1997, and listed on June 26, 2002, is based in Gongyi City, Henan Province, and its main business includes coal mining, thermal power generation, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [1] - The revenue composition of Zhongfu Industrial is as follows: non-ferrous metals 94.76%, electricity 9.96%, coal 2.71%, and other businesses 0.47% [1] Group 2 - Dongzheng Asset Management has a fund that heavily invests in Zhongfu Industrial, specifically the Oriental Red Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund (000619), which held 15.4413 million shares, accounting for 4.05% of the fund's net value, making it the fifth-largest holding [2] - The Oriental Red Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund was established on June 6, 2014, with a latest scale of 2.991 billion yuan, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 9.98%, ranking 1971 out of 8890 in its category [2] - The fund has a one-year return of 54.66%, ranking 1222 out of 8132, and a cumulative return since inception of 441.3% [2]

Group 1 - New Source (stock code: 300109.SZ) held an investor meeting on February 6, 2023, in Shanghai, attended by 37 institutions including Shenwan Hongyuan and Everbright Securities [2][15] - Since 2026, 18 A-share listed companies from Henan have received institutional research, with Xiangyu Medical leading with 208 institutions participating [16][23] - The demand for core products, particularly PVP series products and their applications in emerging fields, was a major focus during the meeting [3][17] Group 2 - New Source is a leading high-tech enterprise in the research, development, and production of PVP series products, with a total domestic production capacity of 57,000 tons per year, accounting for 53% of global capacity and a 34% global market share [18] - PVP is widely used in various sectors, including daily chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, materials, and new energy, with significant applications in solid-state batteries and photovoltaic cells [18][4] - The company expects to sell approximately 4,000 tons of PVP in the new energy sector by 2025, with a projected 20% increase in 2026 [4][19] Group 3 - The price of PVP products has been affected by rising raw material costs due to the European energy crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased prices and profit margins, which are not expected to be sustainable [5][19] - Another core product, Euriz (PVM/MA), has a high single-ton price with a gross margin of approximately 60%-70%, with expected shipments of about 900 tons in 2025 [20] - New Source has made strategic investments in five cell and gene therapy companies to enhance its competitive edge in the precision medical field [20][21] Group 4 - New Source's invested companies are progressing well, with one product entering NDA approval and several others in clinical stages, indicating potential for future growth and IPO opportunities [21] - The company's governance structure is relatively decentralized, with major shareholders expressing confidence in the long-term development of the company and intentions to increase their holdings [21][22] - Institutional interest in Henan-listed companies reflects recognition of their investment value, with many companies being leaders in their respective sectors [25]

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，有色金属板块重点公司25Q4业绩增速不一。贵金属板块当 前估值处于历史中枢下沿，板块具备持续修复的动力及空间。铜供给相对刚性，价格中枢有望持续抬 高;铝供需格局持续趋紧，价格有望延续长期上行趋势。小金属方面，镍价中枢有望上行，锂价中枢稳 中有升，而钴价预计维持强势。降息后有色金属板块估值中枢有望上移，推荐供需格局稳定的新能源制 造业。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 铜：中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在新闻发布会上表示，除了储备精炼铜之外，也可研究将贸 易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入储备范围，同时，将扩大国家铜战略储备规模，探索进行商业储备机 制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备。短期铜矿生产扰动较大、非美库存紧张下预 计铜价偏强，基本面支撑扎实，长期电网投资增长、AI数据中心增长等，叠加铜供给相对刚性，价格 中枢有望持续抬高，建议关注紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、铜陵有色、金诚信、西部矿业、河钢资源。铝：国 内产能天花板限制下供需格局持续趋紧，铝价有望延续长期上行趋势，建议关注一体化完备标的(南山 铝业、天山铝业、中国宏桥、中国铝业、新疆众和)、以及弹性标的(云铝股份、 ...

来源：新浪基金 今日（2月10日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格早盘摸高0.79%，现在水 面附近震荡，场内价格现跌0.35%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二 二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 盛和资源 | 2.98% | 1200 | 有色金属 | 小金属 | 桐士 | 490亿 | 35.90亿 | | 2 | 博威合金 | 2.94% | mand | 有色金属 | 全属新材料 | 其他全属新材料 | 1801Z | 3.60亿 | | 3 | 中学实业 | 1.47% | None - 1 | 有色金属 | 工业会属 | 铝 | 33342 | 3.39亿 | | 4 | 厦门修业 | 1.10% | m | 有色金属 | 小会属 | 将 | 904亿 | 18.58亿 | | 5 | 海亮股份 | 0.98% | 100 11 11 11 | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 铜 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF, Huabao (159876), has shown fluctuations, with a morning high of 0.79% but currently down by 0.35% [1]. Market Performance - The current trading price of Huabao ETF is 1.131, with a decrease of 0.35% (-0.004) from the previous close [2]. - The ETF opened at 1.137, reached a high of 1.144, and a low of 1.127 during the trading session [2]. - The total trading volume is 342,500, with a turnover rate of 1.72% [2]. Sector Performance - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector include Shenghe Resources and Bowei Alloys, which rose over 2%, while Zhongfu Industrial and Xiamen Tungsten also saw gains exceeding 1% [2][3]. - The macroeconomic outlook suggests potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may influence commodity prices [3]. Industry Trends - Prices for rare earth products are accelerating, with significant increases in praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices, which rose by 7.59% and 6.27% respectively [4]. - The demand for rare earth materials is shifting from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling, supporting higher prices [4]. - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to experience a resource supercycle, with prices for metals like gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and rare earths anticipated to rise [4]. Investment Opportunities - The Huabao ETF provides comprehensive exposure to various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it an efficient tool for investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal sector [5].