计算机 2026 年 3 月研究观点：中国模型领 跑全球调用量，软件吞噬情绪缓和 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 吕浦源(分析师) | 021-23183822 | lvpuyuan@gtht.com | S0880525050002 | | 钟明翰(研究助理) | 021-38031383 | zhongminghan@gtht.com | S0880124070047 | 本报告导读： 2 月，中国模型调用量首超美国站至第一；模型应用层面，Grok 与谷歌多模态模型 加速迭代，Claude Cowork 插件体系扩容，企业级 Agent 向职能场景纵深落地，软 件吞噬情绪缓和。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 风险提示：技术发展不及预期，公司业务拓展不及预期。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 计算机《计算机周观点第 ...

计算机 2026 年 3 月研究观点：中国模型领 跑全球调用量，软件吞噬情绪缓和 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 吕浦源(分析师) | 021-23183822 | lvpuyuan@gtht.com | S0880525050002 | | 钟明翰(研究助理) | 021-38031383 | zhongminghan@gtht.com | S0880124070047 | 本报告导读： 2 月，中国模型调用量首超美国站至第一；模型应用层面，Grok 与谷歌多模态模型 加速迭代，Claude Cowork 插件体系扩容，企业级 Agent 向职能场景纵深落地，软 件吞噬情绪缓和。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 风险提示：技术发展不及预期，公司业务拓展不及预期。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 计算机《计算机周观点第 ...

OPEN项目于2023年由五角大楼下属的国防高级研究计划局（Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency，DARPA）启动，目标是在综合劳动力、加工及其他成本后，计算关键金属的合理价格。该举 措显示出政府希望更直接介入并引导市场定价，但外界仍对AI能否真正改变关键矿产交易模式持审慎 态度。 据悉，特朗普政府官员最初将把OPEN的AI定价模型用于至少四种关键矿产，包括锗、镓、锑和钨，随 后再扩展至其他品种。标普全球（SPGI.N）和芬兰数据公司Rovjok将为该项目提供数据和技术支持。 该AI模型旨在通过提高价格确定性，促进矿商与制造商之间的长期供应协议。但如果AI设定的参考价 格得到贸易集团和关税机制的支持，可能在提高部分矿业项目盈利能力的同时，也推高下游制造业的成 本。目前尚不清楚这些价格是固定还是浮动，也不明确其适用范围及具体实施时间表，相关方案仍有待 更多盟友加入后才能落地。 与此同时，特朗普政府正加快在其他领域部署AI工具，包括通过与OpenAI、Anthropic以及Alphabet旗下 谷歌（GOOGL.O）的合作，将生成式AI用于军事场景。 另外，据路透社周 ...

北京时间周二晚间，近一个月来在美股市场大杀四方的明星AI公司Anthropic举办简报会，推出10种供企业客户将人工智能接入工作流的新方式，涵盖股票 研究、投资银行等多个领域。 值得一提的是，Anthropic的发布会并未引发新一轮抛售，核心原因在于：包括汤森路透等"Anthropic受害股"集体亮相简报会，展现紧密拥抱AI智能体大业 的决心。 截至发稿，汤森路透涨超11%、FactSet涨12%、SaaS巨头赛富时涨4%。 作为背景，Anthropic于今年1月推出Claude Cowork，旨在将其编程工具拓展至更多类型的白领工作。此后该功能进行了多次更新，包括添加插件 （plugins）提升金融、法律专业领域的能力，随后升级了驱动智能体的AI模型，又在上周推出了用于网络安全工作的工具。 Anthropic上个月推出法律专业插件后，全球软件股在短短7个交易日内抹去1万亿美元市值，使得该公司成为股民闻之色变的"AI灭霸"。 企业产品主管斯科特·怀特在简报会上透露，最新一批加入Claude Coworks的10个插件中有一半与资本市场有关，分别是金融分析、投资银行、股票研究、私 募股权和财富管理。除此之外，设 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - The three major U.S. stock indices recorded gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, S&P 500 up 1.07%, and Nasdaq up 1.51% [2] - Notable stock performances included Google rising over 3.7%, Amazon over 2.5%, Apple over 1.5%, and Nvidia over 1% [2] - European indices also saw increases, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.92%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.59%, and France's CAC40 up 1.39% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. December core PCE inflation rose 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 3.0% compared to 2.8% in November [5] - The U.S. GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 2.2%, with a fourth-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.4%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.4% [6] - The S&P Global Composite PMI for February fell to 52.3, indicating the slowest expansion in 10 months, with GDP annualized growth rate estimated at only 1.5% [7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump does not have the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, impacting his economic policies [1] - Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that despite the Supreme Court ruling, tariff revenues for 2026 are expected to remain stable due to alternative legal authorizations [8] - Jefferies analysts noted that the Supreme Court's decision could benefit consumer-driven sectors such as retail, dining, and apparel by reducing policy uncertainty [9] Group 4: Investment Trends - Bank of America reported that the share of global funds flowing into U.S. stocks is at its lowest since 2020, with only $26 out of every $100 going to U.S. equities [10] - There is a declining interest in U.S. stocks attributed to concerns over excessive investments in AI by large tech companies and the weakening dollar due to Trump administration policies [10] Group 5: Company-Specific News - Nvidia is reportedly close to investing $30 billion in OpenAI as part of a financing round, which replaces a previously planned larger investment [11]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of S&P Global (SPGI.N) rebounded significantly on February 13, closing at $409.54, a daily increase of 3.11% after a decline of 2.57% following the earnings report on February 11 [1] Group 1: Reasons for Stock Price Movement - Technical recovery and capital inflow: After consecutive declines, some funds entered the market at lower prices. On February 13, trading volume increased, and the capital market sector rose, indicating a recovery in sector sentiment [2] - Easing macro environment: The U.S. January CPI released on February 13 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, lower than expected, alleviating market concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening policy, thus reducing pressure on technology and financial sectors [2] - Fundamental support: Despite a weak earnings guidance for 2026, the fiscal year 2025 is expected to achieve record high performance, with strong cash flow providing support for valuation [2] Group 2: Future Situation Analysis - Progress in the billing industry: The company anticipates a slowdown in growth for this business in the second half of 2026, necessitating attention to the actual impact of macroeconomic fluctuations [3] - Market style shift: If expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts increase, funds may flow back into growth sectors [3]

机构观点 机构对必和必拓乐观情绪增强，主要基于铜业务前景。花旗集团于2月10日将目标股价从2400便士上调 至2600便士，强调其铜业务增长潜力及对全球铜供应缺口的预期。高盛2月10日报告指出，大宗商品市 场进入"高波动时代"，铜等金属因AI与电气化需求长期看涨，标普全球研究预计到2040年全球铜需求增 长约50%。摩根大通2月8日报告认为铜价回调属技术性修正，二季度有望反弹，支撑矿业股估值。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网根据经济观察网2026年2月13日的报道，必和必拓近期热点集中于股东回报与战略项目。公 司已宣布2026财年股东回报计划，包括现金分红1.9亿美元(分两期支付，第二期预计2026年6月完成)和 股票回购3亿美元(未来12个月内执行)，同时承诺2025-2027年每年分红比例不低于净利润的65%。在项 目推进方面，必和必拓计划未来两个财年每年资本支出约110亿美元，重点推进加拿大Jansen钾肥项目 (预计2027年中期投产)，并通过合资公司Vicu a将阿根廷铜矿项目2026年投资额翻倍至约8亿美元，以提 升铜产能。行业层面，力拓与嘉能可并购谈判于2月5日终止，可能 ...

Company Performance - The company reported a revenue of $15.336 billion and a net profit of $4.471 billion for the year 2025, with a gross margin of 40.28% [2] - Despite a strong performance in 2025, the market is more focused on the weakening growth momentum for the future, leading to valuation pressure [2] - The adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance for 2026 is projected to be between $19.40 and $19.65, which is below market expectations, raising concerns about growth slowdown [1][2] Industry Environment - The financial sector is experiencing overall weakness, with a decline in the capital markets on February 11, coinciding with concerns over AI tools replacing wealth management roles and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [3] - There is a market style shift from growth stocks to value stocks, impacting S&P Global as a financial data service provider, particularly due to the pullback in tech stocks and outflows from interest rate-sensitive sectors [3] Market Dynamics - The stock price fell by 2.57% to close at $390.76, with a trading volume of 5.17 million shares and a turnover rate of 1.73%, indicating concentrated selling [4] - The stock price broke below the key psychological level of $400, leading to a weakening technical formation [4] - Institutional ratings are mixed, with a higher proportion of buy or hold opinions, but target prices remain at a premium to the current stock price, prompting some investors to take profits [4]

经济观察网 标普全球2025财年总营收达153.36亿美元，净利润44.71亿美元，均创历史新高。第四季度 业绩稳健，核心业务双轮驱动，财务状况健康。 业绩经营情况 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 核心业务板块双轮驱动。标普评级业务第四季度收入同比增长12.0%，全年增长10%，驱动因素主要为 全球企业债发行回暖及结构性融资活跃。标普道琼斯指数业务第四季度收入同比增长14.0%，全年增长 13%，增速领跑各板块，主要受益于被动投资趋势下ETF规模的持续扩张。 财务状况 财务健康状况与经营效率良好。现金流强劲，全年经营活动产生的现金流量净额为56.51亿美元，自由 现金流为54.56亿美元。订阅收入占比高，订阅类收入占总收入的74%，增强了收入的可预测性和抗周 期能力。轻资产模式，资本开支占销售收入比率较低，为1.27%，投资资本回报率（ROIC）维持在 12.44%的高水平。 公司业绩目标 公司给出的2026财年指引显示：预计有机营收增长6.0%至8.0%；调整后稀释EPS预计在19.40至19.65美 元之间，同比增长9.0%至10.0%。 2025财年全年核心业绩创历史新高，总营收达到153. ...

*零售销售意外停滞、就业数据修正预期升温 美国12月零售销售意外停滞，加剧市场对消费动能放缓的担忧，同时大型科技公司为争夺人工智能主导权的高额资本支出继续引发估值压力。 *三大指数分化，道指续创新高 *人工智能资本支出担忧发酵，科技与软件板块承压 美国股市周二走势分化。道指小幅收高并再创历史新高，而标普500指数与纳指则回落，标普通信服务板块表现最弱，成为当日主要拖累之一。投资者一边 消化最新企业财报，一边评估疲软的零售销售数据，为本周即将密集公布的一系列宏观经济指标提前定调。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨52.27点，涨幅0.10%，报50188.14点。标普500指数下跌23.01点，跌幅0.33%，收于6941.81点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 136.20点，跌幅0.59%，报23102.47点。 【热门股表现】 大型科技股多数下跌。特斯拉上涨1.89%；谷歌下跌1.77%，Meta下跌0.96%，亚马逊跌0.84%，英伟达下跌0.79%，苹果下跌0.34%，微软跌0.08%。甲骨文 上涨2.11%，博通跌1.02%，美光科技下跌2.67%，英特尔大跌6.19%，成为科技板块中表现最弱的个股之一。 谷 ...