电子行业周报 电子行业的全面"通胀"2.0 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2025E | 2027E | | | 600183 | 生益科技 | 68.45 | 1.40 | 2.11 | 2.74 | 49 | 32 | 25 | / | | 688519 | 南亚新材 | 112.90 | 1.00 | 1.98 | 3.08 | 113 | 57 | 37 | / | | 000636 | 风华高科 | 26.50 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 95 | 70 | 56 | / | | 300408 | 三环集团 | 63.00 | 1.40 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 45 | 37 | 31 | / | | 688981 | 中芯国际 | 112.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as 中芯国际 (SMIC) and 通富微电 (Tongfu Microelectronics) [2][3] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a comprehensive "inflation" phase, with multiple segments seeing price increases due to rising costs and supply chain constraints [7][34] - AI demand is driving price hikes in PCB upstream materials, with significant increases in costs for electronic cloth and copper foil, leading to a new round of price increases in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sector [10][17] - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is entering a price increase cycle, driven by high demand from AI servers and supply constraints from leading manufacturers [31][32] Summary by Sections 1. AI Demand Driving Price Increases in PCB Upstream Materials - The CCL industry has initiated a new round of price increases, with Japanese manufacturers announcing price hikes of over 30% for copper foil substrates and adhesive films [10] - The demand for high-end products is squeezing traditional production capacities, leading to tighter supply in electronic cloth [19] - The HVLP (High Voltage Low Profile) copper foil market is experiencing an expanding supply-demand gap, enhancing the industry's pricing power [24] 2. AI Industry Driving Demand Upward, MLCC Enters Price Increase Cycle - The MLCC sector is seeing a surge in prices, with a nearly 20% increase in spot prices and leading manufacturers considering price hikes due to sustained high demand from AI applications [31][32] - The global high-end MLCC market is currently in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with utilization rates of leading manufacturers reaching 90%-95% [32] 3. Upstream Raw Material Price Increases + AI Demand Driving Semiconductor Price Increases - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its price increase trend due to rising raw material costs and tight supply of 8-inch wafers [34] 4. Market Review - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 4.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 14.94% [37]

国际复材 20260302 摘要 常规产品线转向高端细纱和超细纱，叠加丰田织机供应受限，共同推动 常规产品价格上涨。近期纱和布价格均上涨，但布端涨幅（约 0.6-0.7 元）高于纱端（约 0.4-0.5 元），公司顺势调整价格。 行业预期 2026 年 3-4 月价格"渐涨"。布端受织机供给瓶颈制约，国 产替代设备进展尚不明确。纱端虽有新增产能投放，但整体纱线产能增 长仍合理，预计纱端平稳，布端取决于织机瓶颈突破。 8.5 万吨新纱线项目年末投产，预计 3 月底达满产。虽 1-2 月成本数据 不具可比性，但前期规划显示新线成本将大幅下降。产品结构上，初期 以基础类产品为主，逐步向超细方向优化。 现有 500 多台织布机订单，预计 2026 年到货 400 多台，7 月开始每月 到货 100 多台。现有织机 1,250 台，含 100 台老机型"金田居"，无 法用于极薄布生产，后续不再新增采购。 二代布主要交付"生益"订单，2025 年底 100 万米订单已基本完成， 月出货量约 40-50 万米。与生益进行价格谈判，倾向于按市场价上调， 新订单价格约 100 元/米（含税）。 Q&A 如何看待未来一段时间普通 ...

宏和科技 20260302 摘要 普通电子布价格持续修复，预计 2026 年全年仍处于上行趋势。2024 年全年均价 3.74 元，2025 年一季度至三季度分别为 4.5 元、4.8 元、 4.97 元，预计全年超过 5 元。2026 年受高性能电子布需求拉动，普通 布供给收缩，价格有望回升至历史高点。 高性能电子布价格坚挺并上调，AI 需求强劲支撑。一代产品价格维持 25 元/米，CT/C1 产品 2026 年已提价约 20%，价格区间为 80~240 元/米。二代产品 2026 年随订单导入，价格存在上行可能。公司不倾向 主动提价，但若终端客户愿支付更高价格以优先交付，则可能接单。 CT/C1 产品结构中，厚布与薄布占比相对较高，超薄极薄布占比逐步提 升。AI 服务器应用主要聚焦 50~100 微米规格，消费电子载板应用则以 35 微米以下规格为主。2026 年涨价后综合均价水平大致在 100 元左右。 公司拥有 1,000 多台织布机，高性能电子布扩量不会挤压普通产品。通 过优化产品结构，减少低毛利品类供应，增加超薄极薄布供给，以匹配 当前订单机会。与丰田存在战略合作，预计设备采购速度相对同行更快。 ...

AI 算力又一瓶颈，芯片封装基板供应短缺 20260302 摘要 IC 载板作为 PCB 高端领域，国产渗透率低，增长空间大，是 PCB 板块 中值得重点关注的细分方向，尤其是在"算力相关 PCB 创新"之外。 2025 年载板行情未充分发酵，因 BT 载板与存储周期相关，涨价早幅度 大；ABF 载板下游分散，涨价滞后。上游材料供给约束是 2025 年载板 涨价的重要驱动，而非单纯的需求拉动。 2026 年 BT 载板将延续涨价趋势，ABF 载板也开始涨价，主要驱动力来 自材料端供给约束叠加需求端结构性增量，ABF 载板逐步成为 GPU 生 产的瓶颈环节。 海外载板厂积极扩产，但上游材料端扩产节奏偏慢，难以匹配下游需求 增长，预计 2026 年行业涨价具有较强必然性，供需偏紧状态预计仍将 延续。 国内 ABF 载板体系化推进始于 2021 年，虽在外资客户体系中仍较难达 到向英伟达供货的要求，但在国内多类应用场景中技术能力已逐步达标， 国产替代正在进行中。 Q&A 在 PCB 产业链中，IC 载板（BT 与 ABF）应如何定位，当前投资关注点是什 么？ IC 载板属于 PCB 环节中技术门槛最高、价值量最高的 ...

Flash | 01 Mar 2026 11:17:15 ET │ 12 pages Shengyi Technology (600183.SS) Preliminary Results Mean 4Q25 a Slight Miss, But Still Promising Growth Outlook for 2026E CITI'S TAKE Shengyi announced the 2025 preliminary results with revenue / net profit surging 39% / 92% yoy to Rmb28.431bn / Rmb3.334bn respectively. This implies the 4Q25 net profit of Rmb886m soaring 142% yoy. However, this was still slightly lower than previous midpoint guidance of Rmb902m. See Fig 1 for the quarterly P&L trend. Despite the mil ...

Stock Recommendations - Kingsoft Office (688111.SH) is positioned to benefit from AI developments despite recent stock price adjustments, with an expected EPS growth from 3.56 in 2024 to 4.57 in 2026[5] - Shengyi Technology (600183.SH) anticipates significant growth driven by server PCB upgrades and new AI customer acquisitions, with EPS projected to rise from 0.74 in 2024 to 2.37 in 2026[5] - Tuojing Technology (688072.SH) maintains a leading position in thin film deposition equipment, with EPS expected to increase from 2.48 in 2024 to 5.96 in 2026[5] Automotive Sector Insights - Bertly (603596.SH) is expected to benefit from the focus on autonomous driving, with an EPS forecast of 2.85 in 2026, reflecting a growth trajectory[6] - Yinlun (002126.SZ) is projected to see EPS growth from 0.96 in 2024 to 1.49 in 2026, supported by economic recovery in construction machinery and heavy trucks[6] Market Performance Overview - The weighted return of the gold stock portfolio in February 2026 was 6.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.09%[12] - Silver Wheel (002126.SZ) had the highest monthly increase at 32.15%, while Hongyuan Electronics (603267.SH) rose by 22.52%[12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include overseas policy changes and individual company operational risks, which could affect performance and earnings volatility[8]

摘要 CB 供应链自 2025 年上半年起经历三轮调价，主要由需求回升（AI 驱 动、消费电子回暖、国补政策）、成本上升（树脂、铜箔、玻纤布全线 上涨）及高端产能扩张周期长导致，高端材料供给紧缺。 不同类型铜箔自 2025 年至 2026 年持续上涨。HYP 铜箔受 AR 需求拉 升，供应紧张，2025 年涨价超 30%，预计 2026 年一、二季度仍有上 涨空间。载体铜箔主要用于 M3 Pro 工艺，2025 年至 2026 年涨幅超过 35%。 铜箔加工费与规格相关，30 微米 HTE/HDE 铜箔加工费约 6 万人民币/ 吨，18 微米 RTF 铜箔约 10 万人民币/吨，HVIP（12 微米）三代约 20 万人民币/吨，四代接近 30 万人民币/吨。 不同品类铜箔产线切换难度大，低端向高端切换需更换设备。头部厂商 产能转向 HVIP、载板用 VIP 及载体铜等高利润产品，中低端铜箔由中国 内陆厂商承接。 2026 年下半年铜箔仍有涨价概率，中高端材料涨价预期强，HYP 铜箔 与载体铜箔需求景气度至少持续至 2027 年底。中低端铜箔可能在 2026 年末达到阶段性平衡。 Q&A AI 通胀？电子各环节 ...

Summary of Conference Call on China CCL Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sector, particularly in relation to advancements in AI and high-end CCL materials [1][2]. Key Companies Discussed - **Shengyi Technology (600183.SS)** - **Shennan Circuit (002916.SZ)** - **Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888.HK)** - Other suppliers mentioned include EMC, Doosan, TUC, Panasonic, and ITEQ [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth in AI-CCL Materials**: - NVDA's recent results indicate a strong demand for high-end CCL materials, with a roadmap showing significant upgrades from 2020 to 2026 [1]. - The transition to advanced materials is expected to create opportunities for suppliers within the NVDA ecosystem [1]. 2. **Shengyi's Competitive Edge**: - Shengyi is the only certified supplier of M9 CCL by NVDA, achieving a production yield of over 90% for the Rubin platform [3]. - Projected earnings growth for Shengyi is over 33% to RMB 4.6 billion, with AI-CCL volume expected to double this year [3]. 3. **Market Demand Projections**: - AI-CCL volume is projected to reach 1.5-1.6 million sheets in 2026, accounting for over 15% of total capacity [3]. - The gross margin (GM) for AI-CCL is expected to exceed 40%, compared to an average of 28% for the CCL segment [3]. 4. **Shennan's Growth Potential**: - Shennan is expected to see a 39% CAGR in earnings from 2025 to 2027, driven by AI-PCB and BT substrate segments [10]. - The GM for AI-PCB is projected to be at least 45% in 2H25, supported by major customers like Huawei and increased AI capex among Chinese hyperscalers [10]. 5. **Kingboard Laminates' Strategy**: - KBL plans to enter the NVDA supply chain with its M9 CCL and is gaining momentum in upstream glass fabric production [4][9]. - The ASP of quartz fabric for M9 is significantly higher than E-glass, leading to a suspension of certain E-glass CCL products for a mix upgrade [7]. Additional Important Insights - **Material Shortages**: - There is a noted shortage of AI-fabric materials, particularly low Dk/gen 2 and Q-glass, with projected CAGRs of 387% and 471% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [8][11]. - Supply issues are expected to exacerbate delivery lead times, creating opportunities for price inflation [8]. - **Valuation and Risks**: - Target prices for Shengyi and Shennan reflect high P/E ratios due to expected earnings upgrades and market share gains [25][28]. - Risks include slower-than-expected customer certification, macroeconomic conditions in China, and demand fluctuations in electronic goods [24][26][29]. - **Future Production Plans**: - KBL aims to produce 2,000 tons of low Dk gen 1/gen 2 by 1Q26, with potential net profit contributions exceeding HK$400 million for 2026 [9]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and strategic positioning of companies within the China CCL sector amidst the evolving landscape driven by AI advancements.

电子布主要应用于 CCL，CCL 下游为 PCB，PCB 构成 AI 算力机柜芯片的核心 底层材料之一，其核心作用是承载高速信息信号传输通道。随着 AI 发展带动信 号传输速率持续提升并逐步发展至 224G，传输通道的材料性能要求显著抬升。 覆铜板等级标准由日本松下定义，行业常用 MA6、MA7、MA8、MA9 等表述， 数字越大代表覆铜板等级越高。区分不同等级覆铜板的关键参数之一为 DF 指 标，DF 值越小，代表高速传输过程中的信号损耗越低、传输效果越强。公开口 径下 MA9 对 DF 的要求为小于 1/1,000，而产业链实际要求口径为 DF 小于 7/10,000。 菲利华新型电子布产品性能稳定在 DF 约万分之 5.5，虽略逊于日本同类 产品（万分之 1.6），但产能更充裕，整体处于国际领先水平，国内推 进速度领先。 基于 2026 年客户框架指引，菲利华新型电子布销量预计达 1,000 万米， 有望拉动归母净利润 8 亿~10 亿元，公司有望成长为全球龙头，关键催 化包括英伟达芯片发布及 6G 需求。 传统玻纤电子布、Low-Dk 一代/二代电子布与石英电子布在 DF 指标上的差 异分别是什么，为 ...