策略对话化工：构建商品牛市轮动框架，看好化工大周期 机遇 20260226 摘要 中国 GDP 增速放缓至 4%-5%，全球经济增长约 3%，化工行业需求增 速预计在 3%-6%之间，需求端并非主要矛盾，核心在于供给侧受双碳 政策和碳指标稀缺性约束，高碳排行业扩产受限。 化工行业可能向"资源化"或"有色化"演进，供应链受阻导致价格长 周期上行。双碳政策和碳市场扩围是关键，2027 年化工石化或纳入碳 交易市场，碳排放额度成为稀缺资源，行业内部将出现分化。 化工股自 2025 年三季度上涨约 40%-50%，但部分化工品期货与现货 涨幅不大，是市场风偏和流动性充裕下的预期定价，资金倾向于配置具 备长期价值的高赔率资产。 化工产品盈利处于底部区间，下行空间有限，安全边际较高。2024 年 开始上市公司资本开支下降，2027 年前后仍在底部徘徊，反映扩产动 力转弱，供给端出现拐点特征。 部分子行业 2026 年处于产能扩张尾声，另一些 2027 年进入尾声。在 "产能增速走低"与"需求仍有增长"的组合下，供需改善确定性提升， 价格上行概率增加，行业处于"临界点"附近。 市场分歧在于景气何时到来，而非是否存在。行业景 ...

A 股大势研判：伊朗战火重启、贸易不确定性利空扰动，叠加美国通胀 回升、AI 对软件行业冲击担忧发酵，市场短期上行压力依存，后续需重点 关注下周两会定调，以及 3 月中旬即将发布的"十五五"规划纲要能否打开 市场上行空间。目前市场对国内一季度 GDP 增速预期为 4.70%，二季度增 速预期回落至 4.63%，进入三四月份，国内基本面对股市的支撑或进一步减 弱。3 月逐步进入年报披露期，市场风险偏好或面临再次调整。两会召开在 即，需重点关注两会定调情况，在地产、消费、科技方面是否能有更多政策 释放，为市场上行打开空间。 A 股配置策略：配置层面聚焦业绩确定性，关注涨价品种。年报披露阶 段，继续关注业绩确定性强的 CPO、PCB、液冷及上游涨价品种（磷化铟、 光纤、覆铜板、铜箔、电子布、M9 树脂等），关注景气度回升的锂电电池 板块、化工品种（煤化工、苯胺等）、有色金属，关注伊朗冲突影响的原油 板块。科技板块，AI 硬件方面，技术进步再次打开算力产业链成长空间， 建议继续关注 AI 相关硬件、电力及硬件涨价品种。有色金属，大国博弈逻 辑依然继续。建议关注近期涨价且受益于中美贸易不确定性的稀土，供给驱 动的锡，地 ...

BASF目前正在进行全面重组，包括精简产品组合、出售非核心资产、分拆农业业务以及裁员。 BASF同时确认了2025年初步业绩：销售额596.6亿欧元，同比下降2.9%；扣除特殊项目前的息税折旧摊 销前利润下降9.5%，至65.5亿欧元。 这家总部位于路德维希港的公司表示，已加快推进现有成本削减计划。截至2025年底，公司年度年化成 本节约规模达到约17亿欧元，较原目标增加1亿欧元。 BASF宣布维持每股2.25欧元的股息。 BASF在成本削减计划与组织精简的支撑下，第四季度重返净利润。 这家化工巨头周五表示，第四季度实现净利润5.6亿欧元（合6.608亿美元），而去年同期为亏损7.86亿 欧元。根据公司公布的市场一致预期，该数据远超分析师预测的2.85亿欧元。 当期销售额下降5.6%，至140.3亿欧元，略低于分析师预估的140.4亿欧元。 当期销售额下降5.6%，至140.3亿欧元，略低于分析师预估的140.4亿欧元。 BASF目前正在进行全面重组，包括精简产品组合、出售非核心资产、分拆农业业务以及裁员。 BASF同时确认了2025年初步业绩：销售额596.6亿欧元，同比下降2.9%；扣除特殊项目前的息税折 ...

中证石化产业指数一键打包各领域化工龙头，其中基础化工占比约60%，石油石化占比约30%。Wind数 据显示，跟踪以上指数的化工行业ETF易方达（516570）近3个交易日连续获资金净流入，合计超6500 万元。该产品实行ETF中最低一档0.15%/年的管理费率，是捕捉化工产业供需改善机遇的低成本工具。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 春节后化工产业进入"金三银四"复产复工阶段，化工品价格展现旺季弹性。截至2月25日，中国化工产 品价格指数从节前4035上涨至4065，跟踪的100个化工品种中60%月均价环比上涨。 产业层面，化工行业正迎来基本面右侧布局机会。具体来看，长周期固定资产投资转负，产能周期筑顶 有望释放盈利空间；碳双控政策引领下高耗能企业产能天花板逐步显现，供给端率先受益；"控增量、 减存量、管过程"等立体化措施提升产业复苏斜率；海外需求向上叠加产能退出，出口有望从以价换量 转向量价齐升；新旧动能转换下，化工新材料也为产业需求注入弹性。 ...

【环球时报记者 丁雅栀 环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木】 编者的话： 继法国总统马克龙、爱尔兰总理马丁、芬兰总理奥尔波和英国首相斯塔默之 后，德国总理默茨成为最近3个月内又一位访问中国的欧洲国家领导人。据德媒披露，一支"庞大的商务代表团"将陪同默茨一同访华，包含拜耳、 大众、西门子和宝马等德企的约30位高级商业代表。在欧美关税摩擦再度显现之际，作为德国最大贸易伙伴的中国正引来哪些新的关注？ 德国经济正值 " 关键时刻 " "默茨率领庞大的商业代表团对中国展开任内首次正式访问。"德国之声网站24日在相关报道时强调，中国已于2025年反超美国，再次成为德国最 大贸易伙伴，而此时正值德国经济的关键时刻——默茨北京之行的目的之一是加强德中经贸合作，降低美国不确定关税政策给德国经济带来的风 险。 据德媒披露，默茨这次访华将有约30人组成的企业代表团随行，涵盖汽车、机械、化工、新能源等德国主要支柱产业。德国《商报》获得的人员 名单显示，随行人员包括拜耳首席执行官比尔·安德森、大众汽车集团管理董事会主席奥博穆、西门子首席执行官博乐仁、阿迪达斯全球首席执行 官比约恩·古尔登、梅赛德斯-奔驰集团股份公司董事会主席康林松、汉高公司 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（31）期 发布日期：2026-02-24 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 中原期货研究咨询部 公司官方微信 1 4、美联储 1 月会议纪要显示决策层对利率未来走向存在巨大分歧，除了支持降息派和观望派， 纪要首次明确提到加息可能性讨论。大多数人警告，通胀下行进程可能比预期更慢、更不均衡。 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/23 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,121.00 | 1,121.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 焦炭 | 1,682.00 | 1,682.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,315.00 | 16,315.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 13,180.00 | 13,180.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 ...

以下文章来源于融中财经 ，作者李冰之 融中财经 . 中国领先的股权投资与产业投资媒体平台。聚焦报道中国新经济发展和创新投资全产业链。通过全媒体 资讯平台、品牌活动、研究服务、专家咨询、投资顾问等业务，为政府、企业、投资机构提供一站式专 业服务。 又一个"楼塌了"的故事。 作者：李冰之 编辑：吾人 来源：融中财经 2026 年 2 月 10 日，广州中级人民法院第二法庭的法槌落下，击碎了一个延续 4 年的资本 迷梦。被告席上的张劲，头发已染上霜白，再也没有了当年站在世界 500 强庆典舞台上，挥 斥方遒的 " 广州首富 " 模样。 这位曾身家超 400 亿元、一手将雪松控股打造成营收超 2800 亿元世界 500 强的资本巨 头，因集资诈骗、非法吸收公众存款、背信运用受托财产和妨害作证等多项罪名，被判无期徒 刑。与此同时，雪松控股另有 18 名高管被追究刑事责任，刑期均在 3 年以上。 庭审中，他仅承认非法吸收公众存款的事实，却坚决否认集资诈骗罪名 ，辩称自己只是想做好 企业、并无诈骗的故意，该辩解最终未被法院采纳。 几年前也没人能想到，这个在广州商界杀出一片天的人，最终会以这样狼狈的方式落幕。更魔 幻的是，从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Bohui Co., Ltd. (300839) has shown significant volatility, with a notable increase followed by a correction, reflecting market reactions to earnings forecasts and external factors [1][2]. Price Movement - On February 10, the stock surged by 10.59%, closing at 14.62 yuan with a trading volume of 3.59 billion yuan. The stock then experienced a pullback, with the latest price on February 13 at 14.01 yuan, a slight increase of 0.14% from the previous day. The cumulative increase over the period reached 15.59%, with a volatility of 30.53% and an active turnover rate [1]. - As of February 13, there was a net outflow of 193.46 thousand yuan from institutional funds, while retail investors showed a net inflow. The number of shareholders increased by 10.28% as of February 10, indicating a diversification of shareholding [1]. Earnings Forecast - A recent market analysis indicated that Bohui Co., Ltd. is expected to report a net loss of 48 million to 70 million yuan for 2025, representing a significant year-on-year narrowing of 77.19% to 84.36%. Revenue is projected to be between 2.73 billion and 2.92 billion yuan [2]. - The stock price movements around the earnings forecast suggest some investors are betting on a "bad news is priced in" scenario, despite ongoing cost pressures and industry cycle challenges [2]. Institutional Perspectives - Current institutional views are neutral, with no rating adjustments made. As of February 13, institutions forecast a net profit of 129 million yuan for 2025, indicating a turnaround, with revenues expected to reach 3.756 billion yuan. This contrasts with the company's loss forecast [3]. - For 2026, a net profit of 139 million yuan is anticipated, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.75%. The fund holding ratio remains low at 0.19%, indicating moderate market attention [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Deer Chemical (code: 920304) has shown volatility recently, closing at 13.32 yuan on February 13, 2026, with a decline of 1.33% from the previous day and a cumulative drop of 0.75% over the past five days [1] Recent Events - No significant events or announcements related to Deer Chemical have been recorded in the past week (February 6 to February 13, 2026). The latest available company dynamics are from December 22, 2025, indicating a net outflow of main funds amounting to 143.90 thousand yuan and a year-on-year decline of 38.89% in net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters [2] Financial Report Analysis - The most recent financial report available is the Q3 2025 report (as of September 30, 2025), which shows a main revenue of 484 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.98%, with a gross profit margin of 15.03%. The Q1 2025 report indicated a net profit of 14.22 million yuan, down 37.37% year-on-year, and was disclosed in April 2025 [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Electronic Fabric Market**: The electronic fabric market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance due to a shortage of weaving machines, leading to price increases for LCT and second-generation fabrics expected in 2025-2026. Ordinary electronic fabrics also face supply constraints, with a projected shortage lasting until 2027, potentially driving prices significantly higher. China National Glass's market value could reach 140 billion [2][4]. - **Consumer Building Materials**: The consumer building materials sector has seen a decline since 2021, but leading companies like Oriental Yuhong and Sankeshu have significantly increased their market share, indicating a potential turning point. With supportive real estate policies, it is recommended to increase allocations to quality leading companies such as Sankeshu, Henkel Group, Yuhong, and Tubao [2][4]. - **Electricity Market Reform**: The reform in the electricity market is promoting green electricity consumption, with the State Council emphasizing the green certificate system. High-energy-consuming industries may face mandatory assessments of green certificate ratios. Clean energy operators like Longyuan Power and New天绿色能源 are worth monitoring [2][6]. - **Global Metal Resource Pricing**: The pricing model for global metal resources has shifted from a just-in-time supply chain to a stockpiling approach, leading to a tighter supply of strategic metals and increased price volatility. Copper inventories are moving from Asia to North America, complicating price stability due to geopolitical tensions [2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Situation in 2026**: The supply situation in the building materials industry, particularly in electronic fabrics and consumer building materials, is expected to be tight. The electronic fabric sector, especially AI electronic fabrics, is facing significant shortages due to machine supply constraints. Even with new capacities from China National Glass and Jianfa, the existing gap is unlikely to be filled [3][4]. - **Chemical Industry Pricing Logic**: Future price increases in the chemical industry are expected to be driven by changes in competitive dynamics and carbon emission restrictions. Products in the textile chain, such as nylon and organic silicon, are likely to see price increases through self-regulation [3][17]. - **Coal Industry Trends**: After four years of decline, the coal industry is expected to see a supply contraction due to policy shifts towards price stabilization and external factors like the U.S. coal revival plan. Companies with stable earnings, such as Yancoal and Power Development, are recommended for investment [3][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategies in Power Sources**: Different power sources exhibit significant differences in stability and cleanliness, which will influence future investment strategies. The emphasis on green energy and carbon reduction will be crucial [5][6]. - **Impact of U.S. Midterm Elections**: The U.S. midterm elections are expected to significantly impact economic data, which in turn will affect metal prices. Key economic indicators will be closely monitored during this period [12]. - **Challenges for China's Export and Domestic Demand**: In 2026, China's export and domestic demand chains may face challenges due to rising raw material prices and currency appreciation, potentially leading to a shift back to domestic demand chains [13]. - **Future of the Dye Industry**: The dye industry is seeing a shift towards self-regulation among leading companies to avoid destructive competition, with expectations of price increases continuing into peak seasons [18]. - **PVC Industry Changes**: Recent price increases in the PVC market are attributed to the cancellation of export tax rebates, with long-term supply constraints expected due to environmental regulations [20][21]. - **Outlook for Refrigerants and Potash Fertilizers**: The refrigerant market is expected to see price increases due to seasonal demand, while potash fertilizers are projected to remain stable with growth potential [22]. - **Opportunities in Petrochemical and Oil & Gas Sectors**: The petrochemical sector is poised for growth due to reduced competition and favorable market conditions, while the oil and gas sector is expected to benefit from rising oil prices [23][24]. - **Coal Supply and Price Expectations**: Domestic coal supply is expected to decrease in 2026, leading to potential price increases due to reduced imports from Indonesia and domestic production cuts [26][27]. - **Geopolitical Impact on Oil Transportation**: U.S. geopolitical actions may boost oil transportation demand, particularly in light of sanctions against countries like Venezuela and Iran [16]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with stable earnings and growth potential in the coal sector are recommended for investment, particularly those with reasonable valuations at higher price levels [30].