Shares of Vedanta Ltd soared over 5 per cent in early trade on Wednesday after Bank of America Corporation (BofA) upgraded the stock to buy from neutral and sharply raised its price target to ₹840 from ₹480, signalling strong upside potential from current levels.At 10.29 am, the stock traded at day’s high of ₹731.50, up 5.2 per cent from the previous close of ₹695.10.KEY HIGHLIGHTS Vedanta shares little over 5% BoFA updrages the stock to buy at a higher target price of ₹840 per share BoFA lifts EBITDA est ...

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corp is planning to sell 10 of its closed or curtailed sites to the data centre industry, with the first sale expected by the end of June [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - Alcoa's CEO, Bill Oplinger, stated that the company is focused on maximizing value and minimizing liabilities when selling assets [1] - The company is exploring the potential impact of AI on the valuations of its individual sites [1] Group 2: Market Context - Aluminium producers face competition for electricity supplies from data centres, which are energy-intensive [1] - High aluminium prices have not diminished demand in the U.S., but low alumina prices have resulted in 50% of global refineries being cash negative [1] - This situation is expected to lead to cutbacks in alumina production, although Alcoa does not plan to reduce its output [1]

Group 1 - The Trump administration signed a new proclamation allowing a temporary 10% tariff on imports from almost all countries for up to 150 days, indicating a commitment to maintain tariffs as a macro policy instrument despite legal challenges [1] - Industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and other sectors remain unaffected, reflecting a continued protectionist stance in US trade policy [2] - The potential $130 billion in tariff revenue collected under the unlawful IEEPA framework raises uncertainty regarding refunds to companies or consumers, which could impact consumption and economic expectations [3] Group 2 - The Supreme Court ruling limits the unilateral power of the president, providing stability to markets by reducing the risk of sudden large-scale tariff shocks, while the administration's quick implementation of a new 10% global tariff shows a continued aggressive trade approach [5] - The dynamic of legal constraints versus aggressive trade measures is expected to influence market sentiment, as investors assess whether the new temporary tariffs signal a temporary measure or the beginning of a new cycle of trade actions [6]

🇺🇸 JUST IN: President Trump to roll back some steel and aluminium tariffs amid affordability concerns, FT reports. https://t.co/Tn7vdUiFMG ...

Core Viewpoint - The Mozambican government is committed to ensuring the continued operation of South32's Mozal aluminium smelter, as stated by the mineral resources and energy minister Estevao Pale [1] Group 1 - The government is taking all necessary actions to support the Mozal aluminium smelter [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Hongqiao, with a revised target price of HK$45, up from HK$39, reflecting a 27.5% upside potential from the current price of HK$35.30 [1][3]. Core Insights - The global aluminium deficit is expected to persist through 2026-27, driven by high utilization rates in China and limited new capacity overseas. This is anticipated to lead to a 15% year-on-year increase in aluminium prices in 2026 [1][7]. - Earnings forecasts have been revised upwards, with a projected core net profit of RMB26.2 billion for 2025, representing a 7% year-on-year growth, and an acceleration to 34% growth in 2026, primarily due to higher aluminium prices [1][7]. - The report indicates that a 1% increase in aluminium prices could boost 2026 earnings by 2.3%, while a 1% decrease in coal prices would increase earnings by 0.3% [1][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Hongqiao are as follows: RMB156,596 million for 2025, RMB167,859 million for 2026, and RMB162,737 million for 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 7.2%, and -3.1% [2][26]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB26,262.3 million for 2025, RMB36,049.2 million for 2026, and RMB32,879.0 million for 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB2.71, RMB3.63, and RMB3.31 [2][26]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.7x for 2025, 8.7x for 2026, and 9.5x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [2][26]. Market and Share Performance - The market capitalization of China Hongqiao is approximately HK$350.3 billion, with an average turnover of HK$1,565.4 million over the past three months [4]. - The share price has shown significant performance, with a 73.5% increase over the past six months [6].

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto and Chalco have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a controlling stake in Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) from Votorantim, aiming to enhance their presence in the low-carbon aluminium sector [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition is structured as a joint venture, with Rio Tinto holding 33% and Chalco 67%, valuing Votorantim's 68.596% stake in CBA at approximately $902.6 million [1]. - A cash payment of 10.50 reais ($0.66) per share will be made, representing a 21.2% premium over the prior 20-day average trading price of CBA shares [2]. - Following the acquisition, the joint venture plans to initiate a mandatory tender offer for the remaining shares in CBA, as required by Brazilian legislation [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition aims to leverage combined expertise in aluminium production to drive growth at CBA, particularly in the global low-carbon aluminium sector [3]. - CBA operates a comprehensive low-carbon aluminium operation in Brazil, supported by a 1.6GW renewable energy portfolio, including 21 hydropower plants and wind power installations [3]. - The acquisition aligns with Rio Tinto's strategy to extend its low-carbon, renewable-powered aluminium footprint in rapidly growing markets, while also providing opportunities to grow its bauxite and alumina supply chain in the Atlantic region [5]. Group 3: Operational Insights - CBA primarily serves the domestic market, with production activities that include three bauxite mines yielding around two million tonnes annually, along with an alumina refinery and an aluminium smelter [4]. - The partnership between Rio Tinto and Chalco is expected to combine operational excellence and innovation, creating value for shareholders, employees, customers, and local communities [6]. Group 4: Regulatory and Compliance Aspects - The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions [3]. - Plans for a delisting tender offer may coincide with the mandatory tender offer but could be reassessed after the acquisition is finalized [7]. - Rio Tinto and its affiliates may also engage in purchasing CBA shares outside the US during the pending tender offer period, in compliance with applicable regulations [7].

Core Viewpoint - Vedanta Ltd is set to undergo a significant demerger into five independent companies, with the aim of listing them on stock exchanges by May 2024, following the approval from the National Company Law Tribunal [2][3]. Group 1: Demerger Details - The demerger will create five distinct entities: Vedanta Aluminium, Vedanta Oil & Gas, Vedanta Power, Vedanta Iron and Steel, and Vedanta Ltd, which will manage the zinc and silver businesses [3][4]. - The demerger is scheduled to take effect on April 1, 2024, with shares expected to be listed by May or before the end of June [2][3]. Group 2: Debt Allocation - Vedanta's total net debt is approximately ₹60,624 crore (around $6.7 billion), which will be distributed among the new companies based on their asset values and cash generation capabilities [4][5]. - Vedanta Aluminium is expected to carry the largest portion of the debt, while Vedanta Oil & Gas and Vedanta Iron and Steel will have minimal to no debt assigned to them [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Vedanta reported a record quarterly profit of ₹7,807 crore for Q3, marking a 60% increase year-on-year, with revenues reaching ₹45,899 crore, a nearly 20% rise from the previous year [8][9]. - The company's EBITDA also reached a record high of ₹15,171 crore, reflecting a 33% increase compared to the previous year [8][9]. - The aluminium segment achieved its highest EBITDA margin of $1,268 per ton, driven by record production levels [10].

Aluminium Industry Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - The aluminium industry is facing significant supply constraints, leading to potential deficits not seen in over 20 years, with a bullish outlook for prices in the medium to long term [4][5][20]. Key Points Price Forecasts and Investor Positioning - Aluminium prices have increased by 30% since June 2025, with a forecast of prices needing to sustain above US$3,500 per ton to incentivize the additional supply of over 10 million tons required by 2030 [4][9]. - Price scenarios include a bullish forecast of US$4,000 per ton and a bearish scenario of US$2,800 per ton [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's aluminium supply is no longer growing, with production growth expected to plateau by 2027 due to policy constraints and environmental regulations [26][35]. - Indonesia is emerging as a potential supplier, but its capacity growth is expected to be limited to approximately 0.7 million tons per year, which is insufficient to meet global demand [43][46]. - The market is projected to face significant deficits by 2027, necessitating higher prices or technological breakthroughs in scrap recovery to balance supply and demand [13][20]. Demand Drivers - Structural demand drivers for aluminium include power infrastructure, data centers, robotics, batteries, and solar energy [68][69]. - The rise of AI and data centers is expected to significantly increase power consumption, competing with aluminium smelting for energy resources [71][75]. - The production of humanoid and non-humanoid robots is projected to require substantial amounts of aluminium, lithium, and copper, further driving demand [76][83]. Investor Sentiment and Market Positioning - There has been a notable increase in speculative positioning in the LME aluminium market, reflecting investor confidence in a cyclical recovery in demand [9][10]. - Concerns regarding geopolitical uncertainties and potential economic shocks could present buying opportunities for investors [11]. Risks and Challenges - Downside risks include potential shocks from Japan's debt situation, geopolitical tensions, and a slowdown in global industrial activity [11]. - The aluminium market is less responsive to price increases compared to copper, which may lead to more pronounced deficits and stockout risks [8][23]. Secondary Supply and Recycling - Secondary aluminium supply growth is expected but will be insufficient at current price levels, with recovery rates needing to rise significantly to meet market demands [52][53]. - Historical data suggests that without strong price signals, breakthroughs in scrap recovery are unlikely [54]. Conclusion - The aluminium industry is at a critical juncture, with supply constraints and rising demand driven by technological advancements and decarbonization efforts. The outlook remains bullish, but significant risks and challenges must be navigated to achieve a balanced market.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard Industry Overview - **Global Aluminium Demand**: Increased by 2% year-to-date (YTD), with China showing a growth of 3% while the rest of the world (RoW) remains flat [1][1] - **China's Production**: Continues to hover just below the 45 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) cap, with net imports of primary aluminium running at 2.5-3 million tonnes per annum [1][1] - **Global Inventories**: Visible inventories are approximately 1,170 kilotonnes (kt), remaining near decade lows, contrasting with rising copper inventories [1][1] - **Alumina Prices**: Down 53% YTD to $314 per tonne, positively impacting smelter margins, with the alumina/aluminium linkage at 11%, near historical lows [1][1] - **Aluminium Prices**: Up 11% YTD, but underperforming copper, which is up 25% [1][1] - **Midwest Premium**: Increased to a near-record ~$1,860 per tonne, close to 70% of the London Metal Exchange (LME) price, incentivizing imports after domestic stockpiles were largely depleted [1][1] - **Market Outlook**: The forward curve is in slight contango, with expectations of a surplus market over the next two years [1][1] Key Companies with Aluminium Exposure - **Overweight Recommendations**: - South32 (S32 AU) - Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN) - Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) - Press Metal (PMAH MK) [1][1] Future Price Projections - **2026/27 Base Metals Outlook**: Anticipates aluminium prices could reach $3,000 per metric tonne in the first half of 2026 due to higher copper prices and a balanced market, although significant supply growth from Indonesia is expected to undercut prices later in 2026 and beyond [2][2] - **Projected Surplus**: Forecasted surplus of 307 kt and 215 kt in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][2] Financial Metrics of Key Companies - **Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO AU)**: - Market Cap: $121.7 billion - EV: $140.1 billion - Price Target: $138.0 (3% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.9x for 2025, 5.6x for 2026 - PE: 13.8x for 2025, 12.8x for 2026 - Dividend Yield: 4.3% for 2025, 4.7% for 2026 [5][5] - **Norsk Hydro (NHY NO)**: - Market Cap: $13.9 billion - Price Target: $74.0 (3% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.5x for 2025, 5.3x for 2026 - PE: 12.7x for 2025, 10.8x for 2026 - Dividend Yield: 4.2% for 2025, 5.3% for 2026 [5][5] - **Press Metal (PMAH MK)**: - Market Cap: $13.1 billion - Price Target: $7.3 (10% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 17.4x for 2025, 15.6x for 2026 - PE: 25.5x for 2025, 22.9x for 2026 - Dividend Yield: 1.4% for 2025, 1.6% for 2026 [5][5] Global Production and Demand Summary - **China Aluminium Production**: Expected to increase from 35.8 Mt in October 2024 to 36.5 Mt in October 2025, a 2% increase [17][17] - **Global Aluminium Demand**: Projected to rise from 60.3 Mt in 2024 to 61.4 Mt in 2025, a 2% increase [17][17] Additional Insights - **Alumina Production in China**: Expected to rise from 79.8 Mt in 2023 to 83.7 Mt in 2024, with significant month-on-month increases anticipated [19][19] - **Global Market Dynamics**: The aluminium market is experiencing shifts due to varying production rates across regions, with China leading in both production and demand growth [19][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the aluminium industry and specific companies, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investment considerations.