1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term bullish logic for copper, aluminum, and alumina remains unchanged. However, recently, market funds have become less enthusiastic, and prices may remain in an adjustment phase before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pressure brought by continuously rising inventories. For alumina, its fundamentals maintain an oversupply pattern, and a rebound requires new market drivers [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - Copper: The average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Color Market decreased from 104,640 yuan/ton on January 30, 2026, to 100,100 yuan/ton on February 6, 2026. The futures closing price of the main CU contract dropped from 103,680 yuan/ton to 100,100 yuan/ton. LME copper total inventory increased from 174,975 tons to 183,275 tons [8]. - Aluminum: The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Color Market decreased from 24,640 yuan/ton to 23,110 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the main AL contract fell from 24,560 yuan/ton to 23,315 yuan/ton. LME aluminum total inventory decreased from 495,725 tons to 490,975 tons [8]. - Alumina: The spot price index remained unchanged at 2,646 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the main A0 contract increased from 2,768 yuan/ton to 2,824 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.2 Weekly News Review - On February 5, Rio Tinto Group announced the abandonment of merger negotiations with Glencore, causing a world - class mining integration plan worth over $200 billion to end without result [11]. - On February 5, Canadian miner Capstone Copper's largest union at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile approved a new three - year labor contract, ending a strike that lasted over a month [11]. - On February 6, LME's deliverable copper inventory reached an 11 - month high [11]. - On February 9, the upper - limit price fluctuation range and trading margin ratio of copper, aluminum, and other futures contracts will be adjusted [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - On February 5, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. About 85% of surveyed economists believe that interest rates will remain unchanged before 2026 [13]. - Upcoming macro - economic data announcements include China's January M2, M0, M1 money supply year - on - year, social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans; China's January CPI and PPI year - on - year; and the US January unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls change, and CPI year - on - year [14]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: As of February 5, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 4.03% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 62,700 tons year - on - year [30]. - **Futures Market**: Data shows the historical trends of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures positions [20]. - **Overseas Market**: Data presents the historical trends of LME copper inventory [26]. - **Market Inventory**: Data shows the historical trends of Shanghai bonded area copper inventory, SHFE copper inventory, LME copper inventory, and COMEX copper inventory [26]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From January 30 to February 5, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week. Due to the copper price limit - down triggering downstream purchasing, orders in the enameled wire and cable industries soared. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will decrease by 13.67 percentage points to 55.4% this week [30]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Data shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and 6063 aluminum rod inventory [32]. - **Futures Market**: Data presents the historical trends of aluminum futures, options, alumina futures, and alumina options positions [35]. - **Overseas Market**: Data shows the historical trends of LME aluminum total inventory [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of February 5, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. Different sub - industries showed different trends [40]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of February 5, the SMM ADC12 quotation decreased by 750 yuan/ton week - on - week. Before the Spring Festival, demand and supply will contract simultaneously, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly downward center of gravity [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the relationship with the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [47]. 3.3.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: No specific content other than data sources is provided [51]. - **Futures Market**: No specific content is provided. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of February 5, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 91.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.15%. The demand for alumina did not change significantly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of February 6, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,821.55 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 178.66 yuan/ton [57].

来源：矿权资源网 2月5日，全球矿业圈投下一枚重磅炸弹——力拓集团（Rio Tinto）宣布终止与嘉能可（Glencore）的合 并谈判，这场本有望缔造全球最大矿业公司的超级并购案，因估值分歧与管理权之争第三次折戟沉沙。 消息一出，伦敦股市震荡：嘉能可股价盘中暴跌10.8%，力拓跌2.9%，市值合计蒸发超百亿美元。这场 持续十余年的"拉锯战"，不仅暴露了矿业巨头在铜资源争夺中的焦虑，更折射出全球能源转型背景下， 传统矿企的转型困境与战略博弈。 三度"联姻"失败：估值分歧与管理权成"拦路虎" 力拓与嘉能可的合并谈判可追溯至2008年金融危机前，2014年、2024年两度重启均无果而终。此次谈判 破裂的核心矛盾直指两大症结： 估值分歧：嘉能可"要价"过高 嘉能可坚持要求合并后公司40%的股权比例，并强调其铜业务及增长管道被严重低估。据内部人士透 露，嘉能可认为自身铜资源储备及未来产能（约100万吨）应获得更高溢价，而力拓的尽职调查显示， 嘉能可要求的收购溢价远超市场合理水平，双方在铜资产估值上差距达数十亿美元。 （来源：矿权资源网） 力拓的"铜野心"：合并若成，力拓铜产量将翻倍至230万吨/年，超越智利国家铜业（ ...

2009年7月，上海市国家安全局突击检查了矿业巨头力拓在上海的办公室。在当时的驻华首席代表胡士泰的电脑里，办案人员发现了让人后背发凉的东西： 那就是国内数十家大中型钢铁企业近乎绝密的商业数据。从详细的采购计划、原料库存，到每月的产量销量，全部都写的一清二楚。 有人痛心地说，要论对中国钢铁生产的了解深度，恐怕连当时的行业主管部门，都比不上这个胡士泰！ 那么这个胡士泰是什么人？他原是中国籍，后加入澳大利亚籍，成了力拓在中国铁矿石业务的核心人物。他可没闲着，一边用各种手段刺探中国钢厂的谈判 底线和行业机密，另一边还"两头吃"，收受一些小钢企的贿赂，帮他们搞到更便宜的长协矿进口配额。几年下来，他个人捞得盆满钵满，仅价值过亿的别墅 就不止一两栋。而在澳大利亚那边，他一度被一些人捧为"贸易英雄"。 你敢相信吗？在十多年前的一场关键商业谈判当中，咱们这边的底牌，竟然被对手摸得是一清二楚。你家库里到底还剩下多少粮，下个月想买多少，你的成 本线到底在哪里？人家都了如指掌。为此我们被别人拿捏得死死的，在长达6年的时间我们足足多付了7000亿的学费！而在这当中起到关键作用的人，竟然 是我们的内鬼。 首先，那些能左右一个支柱行业成本 ...

铁矿石周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年02月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿石周度观点：补库接近尾声，需求预期转弱 ◼ 逻辑：钢厂冬储补库接近尾声，需求预期转弱，矿价承压； | | | 当周值 | | 上周值 | | | 去年同期值 | 环 比 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供 应 | 全球发运 | 3094 . | 60 | 2978 . | 30 | 3447 . | 30 | 3 . | 9% | -10 | 2% . | | | 澳大利亚发运 | 1774 . | 30 | 1780 . | 20 | 2067 . | 10 | -0 . | 3% | -14 | 2% . | | | 巴西发运 | 692 . | 20 | 544 . | 80 | 703 . | 20 | 27 . | 1% | -1 . ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged above 50,000 points for the first time, closing at 50,115.67, up more than 1,200 points or 2.5 percent, reflecting a broadening market and confidence in growth stories [2][13] - The index has shown steady growth over the past two and a half years, with notable exceptions during specific political events [8][13] Company News - Amazon was the biggest loser on the Dow, falling 5.6 percent after announcing a $200 billion capital spending plan for AI capabilities in 2026, raising concerns about potential returns on such massive investments [5][13] - Other companies like Caterpillar, 3M, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Amgen, and Nvidia saw gains of at least four percent, indicating positive market sentiment towards their performance [5][13] - Stellantis shares plunged over 24 percent after announcing a €22 billion ($26 billion) write-down due to misjudging the shift to electric vehicles, with shares down around 80 percent over the past two years [9][13] - Rio Tinto's shares finished flat after dropping merger talks with Glencore, which would have created a $260 billion mining firm, while Glencore's stock climbed 1.5 percent [10][13] - Toyota's shares increased by two percent after raising profit and sales forecasts for the current fiscal year despite US tariffs [11][13] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the massive investments in AI by companies like Amazon will benefit infrastructure, banking, and other sectors, indicating a ripple effect across the market [5][6] - Confidence in earnings growth is noted, with expectations that equity investors will be rewarded, although volatility is anticipated [6][13]

For more than a decade, billionaire Ivan Glasenberg chased the White Whale of mining M&A, a merger between Glencore (OTC:GLCNF) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) .Close, but No CigarThe most recent round began quietly in mid-December, when the two companies entered formal discussions. Talks accelerated in January once the approach became public, triggering U.K. takeover rules. The confirmation forced Rio to either make a formal offer or walk away by February 5. By that point, advisers had already spent weeks digging ...

编辑：令文芳 力拓集团当天在声明中表示，已放弃与嘉能可合并计划，因为公司确定，双方无法达成一份能为股东创 造价值的协议。嘉能可则在声明中表示，力拓提出的关键条款严重低估了嘉能可的潜在价值，包括没有 充分评估其铜业务，而铜正是助力能源转型的一种关键矿产。这是2024年底以来，双方第二次谈判失 败。根据英国的相关规则，除非特定情况，否则力拓至少六个月内不得再次寻求收购嘉能可。 （央视财经《天下财经》）当地时间5日，跨国矿业巨头力拓集团宣布，放弃与大宗商品巨头嘉能可的 合并谈判，按这两家公司当前总市值计算，这笔估值约2600亿美元的合并案告吹。消息一出，两家公司 股价应声下跌。截至当天收盘，嘉能可下跌约7%，力拓跌近2.6%。 转载请注明央视财经 据路透社报道，目前力拓集团的市值超过1800亿美元，嘉能可的市值超过750亿美元，此次谈判中，嘉 能可寻求换股后，让自身投资者持有约40%的合并后公司股份，高于力拓提出的38%，此外，双方在煤 炭资产的估值和未来发展方向上也存在分歧，力拓还坚持合并后由其董事长和首席执行官继续执掌新公 司，包括上述分歧在内的多重因素导致双方谈判最终破裂。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices continued to decline from their highs, and as short - term market sentiment and capital disturbances came to an end, prices gradually returned to the fundamental logic. The supply side continued to contribute significant increments, the supply remained loose, and port inventories of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly. The domestic terminal steel demand was unlikely to improve significantly. After the Spring Festival, the market trading logic would focus on the recovery of terminal steel demand in the first half of the year, which might fall short of expectations. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals was expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore was unlikely to be sustained. Overall, the current market was mainly dominated by macro and capital factors. This week, the macro sentiment cooled, the iron ore price valuation was moderately high, and the iron ore price was expected to be weak [4]. - The trading strategy suggested a weak - running trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The iron ore price was expected to run weakly. The single - side trading was expected to be weak, while arbitrage and options trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Iron Core Logic Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% or 15 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.82 million tons, a 7.4% or 6.1 million - ton increase year - on - year, and Brazil's were 6.5 million tons, a 5.5% or 1.7 million - ton increase. The shipments of major overseas mines remained at a high level year - on - year. In 2025, 1.26 billion tons of iron ore were imported, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has continued to grow [7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 7.3 million tons. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, about 20 million tons for the whole year. It is expected to be in the production ramping - up stage in 2026 and enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027 [9]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly, resulting in a 4 - million - ton increase in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory compared with the previous week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern remains loose. Since January, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, with an inventory accumulation of about 15 million tons [11]. - **Domestic Terminal Steel Demand**: In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate new construction was 19%, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market improved marginally but remained at the bottom, while the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly. In the first half of 2026, the demand might fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been declining, and it is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026 on the high - base background of the first half of 2025. Overseas, in 2025, the consumption of iron ore decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of iron elements increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year. From the second quarter to the end of the year, overseas iron - element consumption was at a high level and continued to contribute increments. India's crude - steel output increased by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year in 2025, and its demand remained at a relatively high level [13]. Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the prices of PB powder and Carajás fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [19]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: It presents the import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. - **Profit of Mainstream Steel Mills in East China**: It includes the cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China, the iron - making cost (excluding tax), the cash cost of hot - rolled coils, the cost of billets (excluding tax), and the cash cost of rebar [23]. - **Domestic - Overseas US Dollar Spread**: It shows the spreads between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore to domestic iron ore [25]. - **Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread**: It provides data on the basis between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. - **Global Four Major Mines' Shipments**: It shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: It includes the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at ports [31].

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 此次并购尝试发生在全球矿业并购活动显著升温的背景下，2025年矿业交易价值飙升至13年来最高水 平，核心驱动力是矿业巨头为满足电动汽车、可再生能源和数据中心等领域对铜的激增需求，加速铜业 务布局与扩张。标普预计，数据中心对铜的年需求量将从2025年的约110万吨增长至2040年的约250万 吨，若铜供应未能实现有效扩张，到2040年全球铜供应缺口将扩大至1000万吨，接近当前全球需求的三 分之一。 嘉能可近期已将战略重心聚焦于铜业务增长，据其扩张规划，预计到2035年,年铜产量有望达到160万 吨，较当前水平实现翻倍，目标是在未来十年内成长为全球最大铜生产商之一。 当地时间2月5日，全球两大矿业巨头力拓集团与嘉能可正式宣布终止合并谈判，这桩原本有望打造市值 超2000亿美元的全球最大矿业并购计划告吹。 根据英国收购规则，此次放弃谈判后，力拓至少六个月内不得再次寻求收购嘉能可，除非获得嘉能可董 事会同意或出现第三方要约等特殊情形。这已是双方十多年来第三次尝试推进合并，合并传言最早可追 溯至2008年金融危机期间，2014年与2 ...

Core Insights - The abandonment of merger talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore has led to a divided outlook among analysts regarding the future prospects of these companies in the context of critical minerals [1] Company Analysis - Analysts are now reassessing the potential of Rio Tinto and Glencore following the halted merger discussions, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards these companies [1] Industry Context - JPMorgan has characterized the current market environment as "the age of critical minerals," highlighting the growing importance of these resources in the investment landscape [1]