Group 1 - Short sellers have increased their positions against North American IT stocks in January, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [6] - Companies are preparing to invest record amounts in 2026 to scale their AI operations, which may influence market dynamics [6]

IBM, known as Big Blue, has become the latest US tech giant to be suffering from AI jitters - Stan Honda/AFP via Getty Images Deep inside the server rooms of hundreds of the world’s biggest businesses, mainframe computers built by International Business Machines (IBM) hum and whirr. IBM is ancient by US technology standards, founded more than a century ago. But its chunky computers form the backbone of banks, airlines, card payments and more. Founded in 1911, it first manufactured early “punch-card” tab ...

IBM shares sank 13.2% to close at $223.35, marking their biggest single-day drop since October 18, 2000.What is COBOL?COBOL is a programming language widely used on IBM mainframes across banking, insurance and government systems. According to Anthropic, COBOL handles around 95% of ATM transactions in the US. However, it added that the number of people who understand the language keeps shrinking every year."Modernising a COBOL system once required armies of consultants spending ⁠years mapping ‌workflows. To ...

Ashique Habib SIP/2026/007 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No. 26/011. Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade ABSTRACT: Indonesia has been pursuing a broad push towards greater trade openness with regional and global partners, seeking to leverage ex ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The report highlights that digital skills command substantial wage premiums globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where such competencies are scarce. Requiring at least one digital skill raises advertised wages by an average of 1.6%, with returns of 1.3% in high-income countries and 7.5% in low- and middle-income countries. Each additional digital skill increases wages by 0.5% in high-income countries and 2.6% in low- and middle-income countries. Advanced skills yield even higher premiums, with traditional AI skills offering returns of 2.9% across all countries, and generative AI skills demonstrating the highest premiums, reflecting their productivity potential and current scarcity [5][15][18]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the transformative impact of digital technologies on labor markets and the increasing demand for digital skills, emphasizing the need to reassess which digital competencies remain economically valuable as basic skills may no longer suffice [11][12]. Data and Methodology - The analysis utilizes a dataset of over 67 million online job postings from 29 countries between 2021 and 2024, allowing for a detailed examination of wage returns to digital skills across various dimensions [14][31]. Findings - Jobs requiring digital skills are associated with significantly higher advertised wages, with a wage premium of 1.6% for requiring at least one digital skill. The premium is notably higher in low- and middle-income countries, reaching 7.5% [15][57]. - Each additional digital skill correlates with a 0.5% wage increase globally, and 2.6% in low- and middle-income countries, indicating a strong demand for digital competencies [60]. - Returns vary by skill type, with traditional AI skills yielding a 3% wage increase per skill, while generative AI skills command premiums of 7%–9% in technical roles and 25%–36% in non-technical roles [18][19]. Conclusion - The findings underscore the critical importance of digital skills for individual earnings and economic development, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, highlighting the need for targeted training and education to bridge the digital skills gap [5][19].

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of "new-collar" jobs that provide lucrative career opportunities without requiring a four-year degree, bridging the gap between blue-collar and white-collar occupations [2]. Job Categories - **Marketing Manager**: Responsible for overseeing campaigns to build brands and grow customer bases, ideal for those with social media or SEO backgrounds [3]. - **Human Resources Manager**: Focuses on creating and implementing policies for hiring and managing personnel, ensuring compliance, and acting as a liaison between leadership and labor [4]. - **Sales Manager**: Organizes and oversees sales teams, sets targets, and manages client relationships [5]. - **Computer Network Architect**: Plans and implements digital networks for businesses, with opportunities for advancement through experience and certifications [6]. - **General and Operations Manager**: Oversees multiple departments, ensuring smooth operations and resource allocation [7][11]. - **Information Security Analyst**: Protects data and digital systems, with a projected job growth of 29% but also a 49% risk of job loss to AI [12]. Salary Information - **General and Operations Manager**: Median annual salary of $159,660, median hourly wage of $76.76 [8]. - **Human Resources Manager**: Median annual salary of $140,030, median hourly wage of $67.32 [9]. - **Sales Manager**: Median annual salary of $138,060, median hourly wage of $66.38 [10]. - **Computer Network Architect**: Median annual salary of $130,390, median hourly wage of $62.69 [10]. - **Information Security Analyst**: Median annual salary of $129,330, median hourly wage of $62.18 [13]. - **Other Positions**: Information Security Analyst has a median annual salary of $124,910 and a median hourly wage of $60.05 [14].

Core Insights - Calian Group reported a record first quarter for fiscal 2026, driven by strong demand in defense and space operations, contributions from acquisitions, and margin expansion due to cost optimization initiatives [5][4][6] Financial Performance - Revenue reached CAD 208 million, marking a 12% year-over-year increase, with 6% organic growth; adjusted EBITDA totaled CAD 23 million, up 28%, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11% [4][8] - Gross profit rose to CAD 71 million from CAD 59 million a year earlier, with gross margin increasing to 34.1% from 31.8% [2][4] Strategic Changes - The company simplified its operating structure from four segments to two: defense and space, and essential industries, to better align with customer purchasing behavior [1][7] - Defense and space now represent approximately two-thirds of revenue, while essential industries account for about one-third [8][7] Market Demand and Growth - Robust demand was noted in the defense and space segment, particularly in Europe and Canada, with new signings totaling CAD 171 million and a backlog of CAD 1.4 billion [3][8] - Essential industries experienced nearly 20% revenue growth, largely driven by the AMS acquisition and a rebound in U.S. commercial operations [13][8] Capital Allocation and Outlook - The company generated CAD 7 million in cash flow from operations, with net debt at CAD 102 million and available liquidity of approximately CAD 250 million [6][17] - Management reiterated guidance for 10-15% annual revenue growth and double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026, with a focus on M&A as the top capital priority [6][18][20]

Market Overview - The broader US tech sector experienced significant pressure, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 300 points, or more than 1%, trading at 22,764.90 [1] - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.6% to 6,902.80, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 249.27 points, or 0.50%, to 49,872.10 [1] Company Performance - Cisco's stock plummeted by 11%, while major companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and IBM saw declines of up to 6% [2] - Indian IT stocks faced a steep sell-off, with Infosys' American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) dropping more than 7% to an intraday low of $14.59, and Wipro's ADRs falling by 5.4% to $2.26 [3] - The Nifty IT index in India settled 5.5% lower, with all 10 stocks in the index slipping into negative territory [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian IT sector has experienced a significant decline of over 4% due to concerns over AI disruptions and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nifty 50 index fell by 0.4% to 25,860.45 points, ending a four-day streak of gains [1] - The Nifty IT index dropped by 4.6%, reaching its lowest level since April 17, with a year-to-date decline of 11% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Market concerns are primarily driven by the potential disruption caused by AI technologies [1] - The delay in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has negatively impacted investor sentiment [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Equity Market, specifically focusing on the Momentum factor within the MSCI China universe [2][32] Core Insights and Arguments - **Momentum Factor Correction**: The China Momentum factor has experienced a significant correction of approximately **10.5%** since January 29, 2026, following a **40%** gain in under three months, indicating a sharp reversal from historical extremes [3][10] - **Historical Context**: Historical patterns suggest that unwinds of similar intensity typically require at least **one month** to find a bottom, with average drawdowns of around **16.5%**. The current decline of **10.5%** has occurred over just **six days**, suggesting further downside is likely [4][23] - **Sector Impact**: The Materials sector is expected to face the most pressure, followed by the Information Technology sector. Conversely, the Value sector, which is net long Financials and net short IT/Materials, is well-positioned to benefit from the rotation out of Momentum [4][24][25] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment vs. Fundamentals**: The current market movements are driven more by sentiment and flows rather than company fundamentals, making historical patterns particularly relevant for predicting future behavior [12] - **Potential Drawdown Scenarios**: In the best-case scenario, it may take nearly **one month** for the Momentum factor to regain upward traction, while in the worst-case scenario, it could take over **two months** with drawdowns exceeding **50%** [19] - **Sector Concentration**: The Momentum factor is heavily concentrated in the Materials and IT sectors, which together represent only about **13%** of the benchmark index. This concentration means that a sharp reversal in these sectors will have a limited impact on the overall benchmark index, which is primarily driven by Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Financials [32][33] Conclusion - The analysis indicates that investors should be cautious about bottom fishing in the Momentum factor, as historical patterns suggest that further declines are likely before a recovery can be expected. The focus should shift towards sectors that are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics, particularly within the Value sector [4][10][25]