ab 13 February 2025 Global Research China Property Revisiting stalled projects' status We estimate 40% of the delayed projects have been delivered This note revisits "Can Project Whitelist restore stalled projects?" published in March 2024 by consulting with experts from an asset management company (AMC) and a bankruptcy & liquidation service firm, and our bottom-up analysis of 48 defaulted developers' contract liabilities. The conclusion is that 40% of the delayed projects have been delivered as of Decembe ...

Integration of DeepSeek into Weixin Search; eyes on Weixin's eventual AI agent/assistant; Buy | 0700.HK | | --- | | 12m Price Target: HK$534.00 | | Price: HK$474.80 | | Upside: 12.5% | On February 15, Tencent's Weixin released new AI search functionality with the integration of DeepSeek's R1-model for select users, providing a deep thinking option (on top of a quick response option) with results that can be shared within Weixin Chat/Moments. We note this development came closely after Tencent's inclusion of ...

13 February 2025 U.S. Semiconductors AMD did however continue their share gain story in server CPU, with unit share ticking up by a point and revenue share by ~2 points though the overall market, while maybe OK, was not necessarily spectacular (+5% QoQ and +2% YoY on a $ basis).(Exhibit 18, Exhibit 19). On the accelerator side, Intel has essentially given up for now (with Gaudi a no-show and Falcon Shores canceled). AMD actually missed their MI300 expectations in the quarter and guided down for the 1H (seei ...

Global Research ab 13 February 2025 ASEAN Tech Tariff risk: which companies have the highest revenue exposure to the US? Geographical revenue breakdown of 23 companies in ASEAN The ASEAN tech sector is heavily reliant on exports for revenue. UBS ASEAN economist Grace Lim believes that Thailand and Malaysia could face relatively higher risks of direct or reciprocal tariffs if trade surpluses with the US are the key input, or if the US aims to equalize tariff rate differentials (though minimal to none for tec ...

China Internet Tencent Holdings Ltd Rating Outperform Price Target 700.HK 540.00 HKD 14 February 2025 Robin Zhu +852 2918 5733 robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Charles Gou +852 2918 5789 charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Min-Joo Kang +852 2123 2644 minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Charlie Peng +81 3 6777 6993 charlie.peng@bernsteinsg.com Tencent: Act III, scene 2 - the case for a strong 2025 Irons in the fire. Tencent remains one of our top picks in the sector, measured both on near- term earnings trends, and on medium term ...

Global Research ab 13 February 2025 China Pet Food Sector Jan 2025: leading companies' strong growth momentum continued Key brands online retail sales tracking Pet food online sales (Tmall, Douyin and JD) increased MSD YoY in Jan 2025, mainly driven by ASP growth, based on our channel check; Douyin's grew the fastest at nearly 20% YoY, followed by Tmall and JD. Gambol's growth momentum continued with online retail sales up 40% YoY in Jan. Its high-end brand, Fregate grew over 100% YoY and Myfoodie increased ...

ab 14 February 2025 Global Research Global Rates Strategy Fed balance sheet tweaks and QT forever? There have been many questions about changes to various Fed balance sheet line items These include the Treasury cash balance, the foreign RRP, and the gold stock. Any of the changes would boost reserves, which would keep QT going longer The Fed has said it will continue QT until reserves hit the "ample" level. If the Tsy cash balance or the Foreign RRP are lowered, it would create reserves that would keep QT g ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Telecommunications and Cable/Broadband Operators - **Companies Covered**: AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Comcast, Charter, Lumen Key Points and Arguments 1. **Capex Growth for US Telecom Service Providers**: - Aggregate capex for US Telecom Service Providers increased by **22% year-over-year (y/y)** to **$14.3 billion** in **4Q24**. This growth is driving FY24 capex to **$48.0 billion**, which is better than expected, despite being a **-8% y/y** decline compared to FY23 [2][3] 2. **2025 Capex Projections**: - For **2025**, aggregate capex is projected to grow by **3% y/y** to **$49.5 billion**, slightly lower than previous estimates. T-Mobile is expected to increase capex by **8% y/y**, Verizon by **5% y/y**, while AT&T is expected to remain flat [3][4] 3. **Cable and Broadband Operators Performance**: - Aggregate capex for cable and broadband operators rose by **14% y/y** in **4Q24**, exceeding expectations. FY24 capex is now estimated at **$22.8 billion**, a **1% y/y** increase. For **2025**, capex is expected to rise by **7% y/y** to **$24.4 billion** [4][8] 4. **Mixed Trends Among Cable Operators**: - While Lumen and Charter are expected to increase spending y/y, Comcast is projected to have flat to declining capex [4][8] 5. **Equipment Suppliers Outlook**: - Equipment suppliers are anticipated to experience stronger rebounds compared to the overall capex recovery in 2025, due to easier comparisons from inventory digestion challenges faced in 2024 [2][4] Additional Important Insights 1. **Capex Tracker Updates**: - The capex tracker has been updated based on recent earnings reports from major telecom and cable operators, indicating a pull-forward in capital investments from **1Q25** into **4Q24** [2][3] 2. **Historical Capex Trends**: - Historical data shows fluctuations in capex for US Telcos, with a notable decline in 2023 followed by a recovery trajectory in 2024 and 2025 [8][12] 3. **Analyst Contact Information**: - Analysts involved in the report include Samik Chatterjee, Joseph Cardoso, Priyanka Thapa, and Manmohanpreet Singh, with their contact details provided for further inquiries [5][14] 4. **Investment Considerations**: - Investors are advised to consider the mixed trends in spending among different operators and the overall recovery in the telecom sector when making investment decisions [2][4] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the performance and projections of the telecommunications and cable industries, along with specific company forecasts and trends.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the monetary policy landscape in China, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and its balancing act between financial stability and pro-growth easing [3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The PBOC has shifted its monetary policy stance to moderately loose from prudent, indicating a more proactive easing approach amidst domestic economic challenges [4][5]. - Despite expectations for significant policy rate cuts, the PBOC has prioritized financial stability, leading to elevated interbank repo rates and a delay in required reserve ratio (RRR) cuts [3][4][10]. - The central bank's recent actions reflect a long-standing dilemma: supporting economic growth through policy easing while maintaining financial stability, particularly in the context of foreign exchange (FX) management [5][6][24]. - The report forecasts two 50 basis point (bp) RRR cuts in Q1 and Q3 of 2025, alongside two 20bp policy rate cuts in Q2 and Q4, to address persistent deflationary pressures [3][31][35]. - The average RRR in China is currently around 6.6%, which is higher than in many major economies, suggesting room for further cuts [40]. Important but Overlooked Details - The PBOC's balance sheet shrank by RMB 1.6 trillion in 2024, raising concerns about monetary tightening, primarily due to a 100bp RRR cut that released RMB 2 trillion of liquidity [19][21]. - The report highlights that the PBOC's liquidity management strategy has evolved, with a shift from medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to increased use of reverse repos [17][20]. - FX stability remains a top priority for the PBOC, with the USD/CNY fixing kept below 7.20 to manage market sentiment amid ongoing US-China trade tensions [24][25]. - The anticipated fiscal package at the "Two Sessions" and accelerated government bond issuance are expected to facilitate RRR cuts, although the PBOC may opt for low-profile tools like reverse repos if bond market conditions worsen [10][35]. Conclusion - The PBOC's current monetary policy reflects a complex interplay of domestic economic needs and external pressures, with a cautious approach to easing that prioritizes financial stability over aggressive rate cuts [5][6][24].

14 February 2025 BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) H/A: Buy/Buy: Autonomous driving the next volume driver Highway NOA and parking pilot to become a standard in 2025 new models. On 10 February, BYD launched 21 refreshed models for 2025 (priced at cRMB200k and below) with autonomous driving (AD) functions including highway navigate on autopilot (NOA) and parking pilot largely standardized, while the entry price remains the same. These RMB200k and below models have contributed c80% of BYD's 2024 volume (Exhibit 1). We ...