Group 1: AI Industry Insights - Oracle is set to purchase $40 billion worth of Nvidia chips, primarily the B200 model, for OpenAI's new data center in the U.S., indicating strong global demand for AI [2] - Recent feedback from Zhongji Xuchuang suggests that optical modules remain exempt from tariffs amid the U.S.-China trade war, reinforcing a positive outlook for the AI industry chain and export sectors [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Developments - 52toys, a leading player in China's IP toy sector, has submitted its IPO prospectus, showcasing a product matrix that includes nearly 2,800 SKUs and an average of over 500 new products launched annually [5] - The company's revenue is projected to reach 630 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.6%, with IP licensing revenue growing by 42% and contributing 64% to total revenue [5] - Internationally, 52toys has seen explosive growth, with overseas revenue increasing from 35.37 million yuan in 2022 to 147.4 million yuan in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 104.13% [5] - The Japanese market's GMV is expected to triple year-on-year, while the Thai market's GMV is anticipated to quadruple, indicating significant market expansion [5]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The core viewpoint indicates that the retail market for narrow passenger cars in May is estimated to be around 1.85 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.4%. Among these, the retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 980,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.5% with a penetration rate of approximately 52.9% [2] - The overall discount rate in the automotive market in mid-May is about 24.8%. Despite a decline in year-on-year growth rates for both overall passenger car retail and new energy vehicle retail compared to April, the month-on-month performance indicates strong domestic automotive consumption, suggesting that annual sales may exceed expectations [2] Group 2: Hospitality Industry - The report on Shoulu Hotel's Q1 2025 results shows that the company achieved operating revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 110 million yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [5] - The company accelerated its store expansion, opening 300 new hotels in Q1, which is a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, achieving 20% of its annual target of 1,500 new openings. Among these, 192 new standard management hotels and 90 new mid-to-high-end hotels were opened [5] - The franchise model has deepened, with the proportion of franchised stores increasing to 91.6%, and 99% of new openings being franchise-based, highlighting a further emphasis on asset-light operations. By the end of 2024, the total number of members reached 197 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, indicating a strengthening of repurchase rates and brand loyalty [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance against the benchmark index [29]. Core Insights - Wolfspeed, a leading global supplier of SiC substrates, is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price by over 50% [3][4]. - In contrast, Tianyue Advanced, a domestic SiC substrate company, is projected to achieve approximately $240 million in revenue for 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, and has turned a profit for the first time through its main business [8][9]. - The report highlights that domestic companies have gained a significant cost advantage over Wolfspeed, with Tianyue Advanced's gross margin improving from -5.8% to 24% from 2022 to 2025, while Wolfspeed's gross margin has declined from 34.1% to -17.1% during the same period [9][18]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Wolfspeed's Financial Struggles - Wolfspeed's revenue for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 was $560 million, down approximately 8% year-on-year, with a net loss of about $950 million, marking a 37.7% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's total assets were reported at $7.57 billion, with a net asset value of only $210 million, indicating a cumulative loss of approximately $3.87 billion [5][6]. Section 2: Domestic Competitors' Performance - Tianyue Advanced's revenue for 2024 is expected to be around $240 million, with a net profit of 179 million RMB, marking a significant improvement in profitability [8]. - The report emphasizes that domestic companies have made substantial advancements in technology, with several firms showcasing 12-inch SiC substrates in 2024, indicating that they have caught up with international competitors [14][17]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Price Competition - The global sales scale of the N-type/conductive SiC substrate industry is projected to be $1.04 billion in 2024, a decrease of about 9% year-on-year, with Wolfspeed holding a market share of approximately 33.7% [18][19]. - If Wolfspeed files for bankruptcy, it is expected to alleviate the current price competition in the SiC substrate market, benefiting domestic manufacturers significantly [18]. Section 4: Long-term Demand Outlook - The report forecasts a sustained long-term growth in demand for SiC chips, primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, which accounts for about 70% of the downstream market, and the renewable energy sector, which exceeds 10% [23][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance against the benchmark index [29]. Core Insights - Wolfspeed, a leading global supplier of SiC substrates, is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price by over 50% [3][4]. - In contrast, Tianyue Advanced, a domestic SiC substrate company, is projected to achieve approximately $240 million in revenue for 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, and has reported a net profit of 179 million RMB, marking its first annual profit from core operations [8][9]. - The report highlights that domestic companies have gained a significant cost advantage over Wolfspeed, with Tianyue Advanced's gross margin improving from -5.8% to 24% from 2022 to 2025, while Wolfspeed's gross margin has declined from 34.1% to -17.1% during the same period [9][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Wolfspeed's Financial Struggles - Wolfspeed's revenue for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 was $560 million, down approximately 8% year-on-year, with a net loss of about $950 million, marking a 37.7% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's total assets were reported at $7.57 billion, with net assets dwindling to approximately $210 million and cumulative losses reaching about $3.87 billion [5][6]. Section 2: Domestic Competitors' Advancements - Domestic companies have made significant strides in SiC substrate production, with Tianyue Advanced achieving mass production of 8-inch substrates and planning to launch 12-inch substrates in 2024 [14][17]. - Other domestic firms, such as ShuoKe Crystal and TianKe HeDa, are also showcasing advancements in 12-inch SiC substrates, indicating that domestic players are catching up with international competitors [14][17]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Price Competition - The global market for N-type/conductive SiC substrates is projected to reach $1.04 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of about 9%. Wolfspeed holds a market share of approximately 33.7%, while TianKe HeDa and Tianyue Advanced hold shares of 17.4% and 17.1%, respectively [18][19]. - If Wolfspeed files for bankruptcy, it is expected to alleviate current price competition pressures in the SiC substrate market, benefiting domestic manufacturers significantly [18][19]. Section 4: Long-term Demand Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term growth of SiC chip demand, primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, which accounts for about 70% of the demand, and the renewable energy sector, which exceeds 10% [23][25].

Macroeconomic Group - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 4.5% again as of May 21, indicating rising interest rates [3] - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a final yield of 5.047%, marking the second time this yield has exceeded 5% [4] - The auction's bid-to-cover ratio was 2.46, the lowest since February, reflecting weaker demand [4] - The rise in Treasury yields has led to a decline in U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 dropping over 1.7% and the Dow Jones falling more than 2% [4] Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Group - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries of 94,000 units, a 330% year-on-year increase, with a significant portion being the lower-priced MONA MO3 model [8] - The company's Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, up 141.5% year-on-year, with expectations for Q2 revenue between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan, indicating strong sales momentum [8] - Xiaopeng Motors plans to launch several new models in the second half of the year, which are expected to enhance sales and average vehicle prices [8] - The production capacity at the Guangzhou Phase II factory is projected to exceed 700,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, reflecting growth in the domestic new energy vehicle sector [8] Consumer Group - Kweichow Moutai reported Q1 2025 revenue of 481 million yuan, a 10.1% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 1.7% to 94 million yuan [11] - The company's gross margin improved to 60.71%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of mid-to-high-end products [11] - Contract liabilities increased by 77.21% year-on-year, indicating strong downstream demand and increased customer prepayments [11]

Macroeconomic Group - In the first four months of 2025, national general public fiscal revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a recovery of 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Central revenue improved by 1.9 percentage points to -3.8%, while local revenue remained flat at 2.2% [3] - General public fiscal expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a 0.4 percentage point recovery from the first quarter. Central expenditure rose by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%, while local expenditure decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [3] - Government fund revenue in the first four months fell by 6.7% year-on-year, but showed a recovery of 4.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter. The revenue from local state-owned land use rights decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, with a recovery of 4.5 percentage points [3] Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Group - Wolfspeed, a semiconductor manufacturer, reported plans to file for bankruptcy, leading to a 50% drop in its stock price. The global silicon carbide (SiC) substrate market saw a 9% year-on-year decline in 2024, with revenues falling to $1.04 billion [6] - Wolfspeed's revenue for the nine months ending March 2025 was $560 million, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 8%, with a net loss of $940 million, which has increased by about 50% since 2022. In contrast, Chinese manufacturer Tianyue Advanced reported 2024 revenues of approximately $240 million, a 41% year-on-year increase, achieving a net profit of 179 million RMB [6] - The domestic SiC industry is gaining a competitive edge in cost and technology, with 8-inch production already online and 12-inch technology reaching usability. If Wolfspeed goes bankrupt, it could free up about 34% of the market share, benefiting domestic price competition and market share growth [6] Consumption Group - OnRunning achieved revenues of 730 million Swiss francs in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 43%. Adjusted EBITDA reached 129 million Swiss francs, up 54.8%, while net profit decreased by 38% to 56.7 million Swiss francs [9][10] - Direct sales channel revenue was 280 million Swiss francs, a 45.3% increase, while wholesale channel revenue was 450 million Swiss francs, up 41.5%. The Asia-Pacific region saw a significant revenue increase of 130.1% to 121 million Swiss francs, with notable contributions from China and Japan [10] - The brand plans to expand its store count in China from 24 to over 100 by 2026, indicating a strategic focus on the Chinese market. The footwear category remains the core growth driver, with Q1 revenue of 680 million Swiss francs, a 40.5% increase, accounting for 93.7% of total revenue [10][11]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 5 月 20 日 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 5 月 19 日 10 点国家统计局公布 4 月中国宏观经济数据。 评论： 4 月工业增加值同比实际增长 6.1%，高于 WIND 预期 5.2%，较 3 月回落 1.6 个百分 点，但 1-4 月累计同比为 6.45，仍较去年全年高 0.6 个百分点；4 月社会消费品零 售总额同比名义增长 5.1%，低于 WIND 预期 5.5%，较 3 月回升落 0.8 个百分点，但 1-4 月累计同比为 4.7%，较去年全年高 1.2 个百分点；1-4 月固定资产投资累计同 比增速为 4.0%，低于 WIND 预期 4.3%，较 1-3 月回落 0.2 个百分点，但较去年高 1.0 个百分点。 其中，1-4 月制造业累计同比增速为 8.8%，较 1-3 月回落 0.3 个百分点，但较去年 低 0.4 个百分点；不含电力的基建投资累计同比增速为 5.8 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 5 月 19 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 在 5 月 18 日举办的 2025 宁德时代骐骥重卡换电生态大会上，宁德时代创始人、 董事长、CEO 曾毓群表示，未来三年电动重卡渗透率将超 50%，其经济性、舒适性、 持续性均非常有优势,尤其是底盘换电标准化模块。宁德时代计划 2030 年前建成 覆盖全国 80%干线运力的"八横十纵换电网。而根据第一商用车网数据，2025 年 4 月份，国内新能源重卡销售 1.58 万辆，环比今年 3 月份增长 5%，同比增长 245%。 其中新能源牵引车销售 1.16 万辆，环比增长 6%，同比增长 364%，同比增速较上 月（+290%）扩大 74 个百分点。从 2023 年起步新能源重卡行业渗透率徐速提升到 20%左右。因此我们看好新能源重卡行业景气度的持续提升。同日中办、国务院印 发《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》，要求公务用车实行政府 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 5 月 16 日 碳纤维行业景气度有望见底回升 核[心T观ab点le：_Summary] 风险提示： 后续产能出清不理想、下游需求不如预期，仅供投资分析时参考。 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080524120001 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 吉林化纤发布调价通知，宣布因低空经济拉动、无人机需求增长、出口爆发、 湿法碳纤维良好的易加工性影响，公司旗下湿法 3K 碳纤维供不应求，即日起 各牌号产品每千克上调 10 元。目前市场价格参考 200-220 元/千克，涨幅在 5%左右，涨幅历次调价以来最大。除 3K 型号的碳纤维价格上涨外，目前民用 量较大的 T300 12k 碳纤维价格已反弹到 95 元/千克，相对于 2023 年底的低 点上涨 35.7%。T300 25k 型号和 T300 4k 型号价格也较 2023 年底的最低价反 弹，总体看越高端型号价格反弹力度越强，碳纤维的价格大概率已见底。 分析师：郭强 电话：0755-23838533 2023 年全球碳纤维需求 11.5 万吨，同比降低 1 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 5 月 16 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、策略和先进制造组： 5 月 15 日中办、国办印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》。细化了城市改 造的主要的方面包括，加强既有建筑改造，加快拆除改造 D 级危险住房。加强城 市基础设施风险隐患排除和改造，城市供水设施改造提标，生活圾处理设施升级 改造，加强公共消防设施建设，适度超前建设防灾工程。发展城市快速干线交通、 生活性集散交通和绿色慢行交通，加快建设停车设施。资金来源上，要加大中央 预算内投资和超长期特别国债对符合条件的项目给予支持。地方政府要加大财政 投入，通过发行地方政府专项债券对符合条件的城市更新项目予以支持。由于本 次意见明确了资金来源和更新的主要领域，大概率会对城市更新产生实质性推动 作用，有利于建材、工程机械等传统产业的景气度改善。 分析师：郭强 继前两日美国商务部发布指引禁止全球各公司使用中国 AI 芯片，否则面临美国制 裁的规则后。美国商务部又修改了该出口管制，取消了"全球禁用华为 Ascend 芯 片，明确在世界任何地区使用华为 Ascend 芯片均被视 ...