春节假期出行旺盛，航空票价升幅扩大 [Table_Industry] 航空 ——2026 年"春运"系列报告之（四） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | 本报告导读： 2026 年春运需求旺盛，航空客流增幅领跑，且客座率票价同比上升。其中，春节假 期票价升幅扩大，节后趋势或继续向好。叠加油价降低，料春运航司盈利同比改善。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 航空《节前将现客流高峰，票价趋势有望向好》 2026.02.14 航空《春运客流逐步启动，官方预期再创新高》 2026.02.02 航空《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需求旺盛》 2026.01.23 航空《春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛》 2026.01.20 航空《预计元旦假期出游旺盛 ...

港股航空股逆势上涨，其中，国泰航空涨4%领衔，中国国航、中国南方航空、中国东方航空均涨超1% 以上。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 00293 | 国泰航空 | 13.350 3.97% | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 7.230 1.40% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 6.200 1.14% | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 5.940 1.02% | 消息上，交通运输部公布2月16日—2月22日全国物流保通保畅运行数据。其中民航保障航班13.1万班 （其中货运航班2169班，包括国际货运航班2015班，国内货运航班154班）。数据显示，春节假期期 间，初五至初七，海南往返北京、上海的航班每日均超过100架次。特别是三亚机场每日宽体机执飞占 比已经从全年平均的8.5%提高到了30%以上，宽体机占比居全国前列。 华创证券研报指出，观察2026年马年，晚春节+长假期，今年春运呈现两大特征："二次出行+返程集 中"。在国新办1月29日的新闻发布会上，国家发展改革委副主任李春临介绍："今年农历新年时间较 晚，春节假期较长。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

正值春节假期返程高峰，2月23日，海南离岛机票价格大涨，部分票价逼近万元，今明两天琼州海峡船 票均已售罄。目前，四大航司均已增开航班，春运期间海南航班已加班超2000架次。此外，多部门还协 调启用临时航路，并更换大机型，多措并举全力疏运旅客。 多家在线购票平台显示，由于票量紧张，2月23日（初七），从海南三亚等地飞往北京、上海、深圳等 热门城市的机票价格大幅上涨，部分票价逼近万元。26日以后的票价大幅回落。 ¥7642 ¥8120 推荐¥9075 ¥9553 | 更多出行厅条推荐 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 飞机中转 临近日期 | 飞机+火车 | | | *9553起 ¥2630起 | ¥6443起 | | | 02-24 周二 8h55m | | | | 23:10 11:55 转 | 少量 ¥9555 | | | 武汉 凤凰国际T1 虹桥T2 | | 公务舱 | | 2) (D) 017 | | 未 | | 推荐排序 直飞优先 时间排序 | | 价格低-高 | | 海口一广州 v | N | | | | 低价提醒 | 重多 | | 今天 明天 后天 周四 | 周 | | | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

中国青年报客户端讯（中青报·中青网记者 林洁）2月21日，广州白云国际机场迎来春运生产新突破，单 日起降航班1676架次、接送旅客27.76万人次、保障货邮4154.14吨，同比去年春运分别增长7.37%、 9.12%、9.1%。 春运期间 的东航柜台井然有序。受访者供图 东航在广东投入的座位数同比增加逾10万个，增幅达8.43%；执行航班8100余班，同比增长约5.11%； 预计运输旅客128万人次，同比增长8.21%。随着东航在广州白云国际机场的国际航班转至T3航站楼运 营，东航也进一步优化了国际国内中转流程。 根据春节热门旅游目的地，东航在广州加密了往返西安、昆明、成都、兰州、太原、南京的航班；在深 圳加密了往返大理、太原、武汉航班，并新增深圳往返哈尔滨的直飞航班；在珠海加密了往返昆明、上 海虹桥的航班。在近年来火爆的潮汕市场，东航新增或加密往返上海、成都、南京、郑州、北京、宁 波、昆明、南昌、兰州等地的航班；在湛江加密往返南京、上海、武汉、南昌、成都的航班；在梅州新 增往返上海浦东的航班。 国际机场亮出"广州欢迎您"。受访者供图 广州白云 自2月2日春运启动以来，广州白云国际机场累计运送旅客527.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The C919, China's domestically produced large passenger aircraft, is being utilized extensively during the Spring Festival travel season, enhancing connectivity for travelers in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan [1][3]. Group 1: C919 Aircraft Operations - The C919 aircraft is now operational, with nine planes flying 36 segments daily during the Spring Festival, catering to a high volume of passengers [1]. - The aircraft represents a significant achievement in China's aviation industry, reflecting the dedication of aviation professionals from design to operation [3]. Group 2: Pilot's Perspective - The pilot, as a representative of the crew, emphasizes the responsibility of ensuring passenger safety and comfort, especially during the busy Spring Festival period [5][7]. - The emotional connection between the pilot and passengers is highlighted, as the pilot understands the importance of safe travel for families reuniting during the holiday [9]. Group 3: Passenger Experience - The flights are primarily filled with families, creating a warm atmosphere as children and elderly passengers look forward to reunions [5][7]. - The pilot expresses satisfaction in facilitating these reunions, noting the joy of seeing travelers eager to return home for the New Year celebrations [9].

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of a "New Year Gift Package" by Beijing's cultural and tourism bureau to welcome British tourists arriving in Beijing, enhancing cultural exchange and tourism ties between China and the UK [1][2] - The "send-off and welcome" event included a warm send-off in London and a reception in Beijing, showcasing the importance of bilateral cultural exchanges [2] - The gift package contained tickets to the Beijing Dadu New Year Temple Fair, Peking Opera performances, brochures for premium inbound tourism routes, and various small gifts, aiming to create a festive atmosphere for the arriving tourists [1] Group 2 - The event aligns with the consensus reached by leaders of China and the UK, emphasizing the importance of deepening bilateral cultural exchanges and promoting mutual understanding [2] - Data indicates that by 2025, the number of British tourists visiting Beijing is expected to reach 117,500, marking a significant growth point for inbound tourism in Beijing [2] - Starting from February 17, 2026, China will implement a visa exemption policy for ordinary passport holders from Canada and the UK, facilitating easier travel for business, tourism, family visits, and transit for up to 30 days [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The demand for civil aviation during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to be strong, with limited additional flights, leading to a gradual narrowing of passenger growth rates. Ticket prices are anticipated to continue rising year-on-year during and after the holiday period. Coupled with lower oil prices, airline profitability is expected to improve significantly compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, with strong demand expected to set a new historical high for passenger flow. As of February 12, the overall flow of people increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with aviation leading at a growth rate of 5.4% [5][6]. Passenger Flow Analysis - Passenger flow for various transportation modes showed the following year-on-year growth rates: aviation at 5.4%, rail at 2.6%, and road at 2.2%. The first week of travel was impacted by adverse weather, but recovery was noted in the second week as conditions improved [5][6][8]. Airline Performance - Daily average passenger volume for civil aviation reached approximately 2.36 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The growth rate is in line with expectations, although the limited number of additional flights may lead to a slight decrease in growth rates as the holiday approaches [5][8]. Ticket Pricing Trends - The report estimates that domestic load factors increased by about 1 percentage point year-on-year, with ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) rising by approximately 1-2%. Despite a 13% year-on-year decrease in jet fuel prices, the net ticket prices are expected to rise, indicating an improvement in airline gross margins [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "super cycle" for the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand growth and a shift towards market-driven pricing. The upcoming peak season is expected to significantly enhance airline profitability, with the first quarter of 2026 likely to see industry-wide profitability [5][8]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends accumulating shares of key airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, based on their expected performance and market conditions [5][13].

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines (601111.SH) reported an increase in passenger turnover in January 2026, with a year-on-year rise in revenue passenger kilometers, despite a slight decrease in capacity input [1] Group 1: Passenger Operations - The group's passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1] - Passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) decreased by 0.9% year-on-year [1] - Domestic passenger capacity input decreased by 2.0%, while domestic passenger turnover increased by 2.6% [1] - International passenger capacity input increased by 1.5%, with international passenger turnover rising by 4.2% [1] - Regional passenger capacity input decreased by 0.8%, and regional passenger turnover increased by 1.8% [1] - The average passenger load factor was 82.2%, up by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic routes saw an increase in load factor by 3.7 percentage points, international routes by 2.0 percentage points, and regional routes by 1.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cargo Operations - Cargo capacity input (measured in available cargo ton kilometers) decreased by 3.9% year-on-year [1] - Cargo and mail turnover (measured in revenue cargo ton kilometers) increased by 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The cargo load factor was 35.6%, up by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]