机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：林起贤/夏嘉励 事件： 公司发布盈利预警：1）预计25 年调整后归母净利润为8-9 亿元，低于预期，较24 年调整后归母净利润 11.4 亿元（新丽传媒3.4 亿元，在线业务+阅文自有版权运营业务8 亿元）对应同比下滑21-30%。2）预 计25 年调整前归母净亏损为7.5-8.5 亿元，同比24 年亏损扩大；主要由于新丽传媒计提商誉减值约18 亿 元。 投资要点： 新丽传媒项目波动导致公司25 年利润下滑。一方面，部分剧集延期，25 年全年仅上线2部剧（《扫毒风 暴》《哑舍》）；另一方面，电影《情圣3》亏损，根据猫眼专业版，总票房仅4262 万。新丽传媒仍然 为国内头部剧集制作公司，26 年已上线剧集《年少有为》，关注后续项目排播。新丽传媒25 年已计提 剩余全部商誉减值，减值支出不影响调整后利润口径，不影响现金流。 在线业务及阅文自有版权运营业务25 年基本符合预期。阅文作为付费网文领军，在线业务预计平稳。 公司当前核心看点版权运营业务25 年增速较好，经营向上。衍生品、短剧、漫剧等更"短平快"的IP 变 现方式，可平滑长剧电影产品周期波动。 漫剧等有助于阅文从"爆款驱动"转向 ...

叶可以分公司中 | 市场数据: | 2026年02月12日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 38.32 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9175.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 46.88/22.40 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 391.43 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,021.48 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8888 | 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ar (维持) -年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberq 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com (00772) 新丽传媒拖累 25 年利润，版权运营延续向上趋势 事件: 公司发布盈利预警：1）预计 25 年调整后归母净利润为 8-9 亿元，低于预期，较 24 年调整 ● 后归母净利润 11.4 亿元（新丽传媒 3.4 亿元，在线业务+阅文自有版权运营业务 8 亿元) 对应同比下滑 21-30%。2) 预计 25 年调整前归母净亏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has issued a profit warning, expecting an adjusted net profit of 800-900 million yuan for 2025, which is below expectations and represents a year-on-year decline of 21-30% compared to 1.14 billion yuan in 2024 [7] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to New Classics Media, which is expected to report a loss of 140 million yuan in 2025 due to goodwill impairment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan [7] - The online business and the company's proprietary copyright operations are expected to perform in line with expectations, with a good growth rate in copyright operations [7] - The company is transitioning from a "hit-driven" model to an "IP pool monetization" strategy, leveraging AI to reduce production costs and time for animated adaptations [7] - The company has launched a global toy co-creation plan to enhance its derivative product business, collaborating with top artists to incubate original IP [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7.012 billion yuan - 2024: 8.121 billion yuan - 2025E: 7.265 billion yuan - 2026E: 8.002 billion yuan - 2027E: 8.661 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 1.130 billion yuan - 2024: 1.142 billion yuan - 2025E: 843 million yuan - 2026E: 1.452 billion yuan - 2027E: 1.648 billion yuan [9][10] - The report anticipates a target price-to-earnings ratio of 30x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 49 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 25% [7]

野村发表研报，将阅文集团评级升至"买入"，目标价由33港元上调至47港元。该行指，阅文集团营运内 地最大的在线文学平台之一，已累积规模庞大的用户群，以及有才华的作家社群。多年来，公司积累了 大量优质IP，其在线阅读业务持续产生稳健的现金流，而IP经营业务则成为收入增长动力。为进一步释 放其庞大IP库的价值，公司已将其电视剧、动画、漫画及游戏的授权业务范围，拓展至IP周边商品、短 剧及动画剧。该行现时对公司的短剧及动画剧业务增长前景更趋乐观，相信该业务将受惠于行业顺风， 动力有望增强。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，阅文集团(00772)逆势涨近8%，截至发稿，涨6.11%，报40.68港元，成交额2.21亿港 元。 消息面上，近日，字节跳动旗下Seedance2.0火爆海外，马斯克在其社交平台X转发评论Seedance 2.0相 关内容，并表示模型发展速度太快(It's happening fast)。中银国际指出，根据新华网2026年1月数据，阅 文集团已有十多部作品播放量破亿，80多部漫剧作品播放量破千万；知乎盐言故事改编漫剧播放量突破 10亿。该行认为，随着Seedance2.0发布，漫剧制作成本进一步降低，制作效果进一步提高，行业有望 迎来加速发展。 财通证券表示，随着Seedance2.0所展现的惊艳能力，在AI实现技术平权后，漫剧行业将回归内容行业 的本质，优质内容将成为决定一部漫剧是否爆款的核心因素。参考海外，OpenAI的Sora和迪士尼的合 作，已提供了初步的探索方向。国内来看，在AI漫剧产业链中，也已在做类似的模式探索，包括阅文 集团、掌阅科技和中文在线等，围绕自身IP资源搭建了AI漫剧平台。该行认为，在视频模型能力持续升 级的背景下，IP将成为AI漫剧平台重要的护城河，也将是影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a Non-IFRS net profit of 800 to 900 million yuan for 2025, despite expecting an IFRS net loss of 750 to 850 million yuan primarily due to an 1.8 billion yuan goodwill impairment related to New Li Media [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The company plans to announce its 2025 performance on March 17, 2025, with a projected revenue of 7.279 billion yuan, representing a 10.4% year-on-year decline [1] - The Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 855 million yuan, reflecting a 25.1% decrease compared to the previous year [1] - The company expects a net loss of 150 million yuan from New Li Media due to fewer drama releases and lackluster box office performance [1] Group 2: Business Development - The copyright operation new business is progressing well, with profits outside of New Li Media expected to increase by 25% [1] - Online business revenue is projected to remain stable at 4.045 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - The company anticipates that revenue from copyright operations, excluding New Li Media, will reach 2.585 billion yuan, marking a 5.5% increase, driven by new business initiatives such as short dramas and IP derivatives [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - New Li Media has a rich reserve of dramas but faces uncertainties; the company is actively expanding its AI comic drama business [2] - The drama "Youth Has Its Own Way" is set to air on January 31, 2026, with additional projects in the pipeline [2] - The company plans to launch an upgraded "Creative Partner Program" in Q4 2025, introducing AIGC tools like "Comic Drama Assistant" [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to losses from New Li Media, the company has revised down its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 38.2%, 7.1%, and 2.5% to 855 million, 1.461 billion, and 1.619 billion yuan respectively [2] - The current price corresponds to a Non-IFRS P/E of 24.7 and 22.0 for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at 43.5 HKD, reflecting an 8.5% upside potential based on the company's IP and AI comic drama development prospects [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the launch of Seedance 2.0 by ByteDance has exceeded expectations and is expected to drive explosive growth in downstream applications such as AI comic dramas [1][2] - The capabilities of Seedance 2.0, including multi-modal references and strong consistency, have garnered significant market attention [2] - The advancement of AI video generation models is anticipated to accelerate the growth of industries like AI comic dramas, short dramas, and interactive gaming [3] Group 2 - The AI comic drama industry is expected to return to its essence of content quality, with IP becoming a crucial factor in determining the success of a comic drama [4] - Companies that provide rich IP resources alongside technological empowerment will have a competitive advantage in the AI comic drama space [4] - Investment recommendations include companies with abundant IP resources such as Yu Wen Group, Zhangyue Technology, and others [4]

Core Insights - The core message of the news is that 2025 is a pivotal year for the company, as it aims to solidify its foundation and cultivate new growth drivers amidst industry transformation, particularly focusing on the rapid development of emerging businesses like animated dramas and short dramas [2] Group 1: Business Development - The animated drama market is expected to explode in 2025, with a projected market size of 16.8 billion and exceeding 24 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 45% [2] - The company has launched the animated drama "Thriller Paradise," which achieved over 1 million views on Bilibili within 48 hours of its release, marking a significant success for the young animated drama industry in China [2][3] Group 2: Content Creation and Technology - "Thriller Paradise" is adapted from a novel by the company and explores themes of reality versus illusion and the meaning of free will, utilizing advanced AIGC capabilities combined with traditional animation processes [3] - The company has initiated a "Creative Partner Program" to deepen its engagement in the animated drama ecosystem, with over ten works achieving over 100 million views and more than 100 works surpassing 10 million views [4] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The company has invested in leading AI animated drama production firm Nanchang Yourui Animation, with their collaboration yielding the phenomenon "Demon Rebellion, I Raise an Eight-Winged Seraph," which has over 150 million views on Douyin [4] - The rapid advancement of AI technology is expected to enhance the company's IP commercialization efficiency, with partnerships established with Tencent Cloud and other mainstream video and image service providers [4]

Core Insights - In the first two months of 2026, Yuewen's short dramas have achieved remarkable success, with both male and female genres producing hit works, indicating strong growth potential for the company in the short drama sector [1][3] Group 1: Performance of Short Dramas - The male short drama "Jipin Jiadin" reached a platform popularity of over 53 million, ranking in the top 5 of the hot broadcast list [1] - The female short drama "Nancheng Duiyue Gui" achieved a first-day popularity of 71.5 million and over 100 million views on Douyin within 36 hours, setting a benchmark for female short dramas [1] - Multiple works launched at the beginning of the year have exceeded 50 million in popularity, earning the platform's "explosive drama" certification [2] Group 2: IP and Content Development - Yuewen has a vast reserve of over 10 million premium IPs across various genres, providing a continuous source of story material for short drama creation [2] - The company has established long-term collaborations with top production companies and developed its own short drama production team, enhancing production quality [2] - The successful adaptation of classic web novels into short dramas has solidified the narrative foundation for these adaptations, ensuring sustainability in IP short drama development [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Yuewen is set to release numerous high-quality IP adaptations in 2026, including "Xu Ni Wan Zhang Guang Mang Hao," "Wo Zhen Mei Xiang Chong Sheng A 2," and "Zhong Song 2" [3] - The company aims to continue deepening its focus on the short drama sector, leveraging its mature methodologies and rich IP reserves to deliver high-quality content [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful launch of two major short dramas by Yuewen, "Jipin Jiadin" and "Nancheng Duiyue Gui," marking a strong start for the year 2026 with significant viewer engagement [1][3][5] Summary by Sections Performance of New Releases - "Jipin Jiadin" achieved a platform heat of over 53 million, ranking in the top 5 of popular shows, while "Nancheng Duiyue Gui" reached a remarkable 71.5 million on its first day and surpassed 100 million views on Douyin within 36 hours [1][3] - Both dramas are adaptations of popular web novels from Yuewen Group, showcasing the effectiveness of their IP development strategy [3][5] Content and Storytelling - "Nancheng Duiyue Gui" tells the story of a hacker and a CEO navigating their complex identities, receiving praise for its strong script and emotional narrative, with over 200 million views within five days [3][5] - "Jipin Jiadin," based on a novel by author Yu Yan, features a modern character who travels back in time, using contemporary knowledge to navigate historical challenges, and has garnered positive reviews for its faithful adaptation [5][6] Broader Impact and Strategy - The success of these dramas is part of a larger trend, with multiple new releases achieving over 50 million in heat, indicating a robust start for Yuewen's short drama lineup in 2026 [6][9] - Yuewen's strategy of IP series development has proven effective, with series like "Wo Jia Niangzi, Bu Dui Qing" and its sequels showing strong viewer engagement and anticipation for upcoming installments [8][9] Industry Position and Future Outlook - Yuewen has established a comprehensive production and distribution strategy, collaborating with top production companies and developing its own teams to enhance content quality [14] - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming adaptations, including "Xu Ni Wan Zhang Guang Mang Hao" and sequels to existing hits, positioning itself for continued success in the short drama market [14]