Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. However, it recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of 210 million RMB, primarily due to goodwill impairment related to New Classics Media [1][4]. - Online business has stabilized, with proprietary reading products performing well. Online business revenue reached 4.03 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2]. - The company is focusing on IP derivatives across multiple fields, with copyright operations and other income growing by 33.5% to 4.09 billion RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a gross profit of 3.92 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 48.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.14 billion RMB, a slight increase of 1.0% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company has revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 1.35 billion RMB and 1.53 billion RMB, respectively [4]. Online Business - Revenue from proprietary platform products increased by 3.4% to 3.53 billion RMB, while revenue from Tencent product channels decreased by 28.2% to 250 million RMB [2]. - The average monthly active users (MAU) for proprietary platforms and Tencent's self-operated channels was 166.6 million, a decline of 19% year-on-year [2]. IP Derivatives and New Media - New Classics Media generated revenue of 1.64 billion RMB in 2024, with a profit of 340 million RMB, although some projects faced delays affecting profitability [3]. - The company launched over 100 short dramas in 2024, with individual works achieving significant revenue [3]. - The gross merchandise value (GMV) of derivatives exceeded 500 million RMB, with card products contributing over 200 million RMB [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, but reported a net loss of 210 million RMB due to goodwill impairment related to New Classics Media [1][4] - Online business shows signs of stabilization, with proprietary reading products performing well, while third-party platform revenue increased significantly [2][3] - The company is focusing on IP derivative products, with significant growth in copyright operations and other income, particularly in the film and short drama sectors [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 81.2 billion RMB, a gross profit of 39.2 billion RMB, and a gross margin of 48.3% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was 11.4 billion RMB, a 1.0% increase year-on-year [1][4] - The company revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 13.5 billion RMB and 15.3 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10.6% and 5.8% from previous estimates [4] Online Business Performance - Online business revenue reached 40.3 billion RMB, with proprietary platform product revenue increasing by 3.4% to 35.3 billion RMB [2] - The average monthly active users (MAU) for proprietary and Tencent self-operated channels decreased by 19% year-on-year to 166.6 million [2] IP Derivative Business - Copyright operations and other income grew by 33.5% to 40.9 billion RMB, with New Classics Media generating 1.64 billion RMB in revenue [3] - The company launched over 100 short dramas in 2024, achieving significant revenue milestones [3] - The gross merchandise value (GMV) for derivatives exceeded 500 million RMB, with a strong partnership network established [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 28.00, representing a potential upside of 2.6% from the current price of HKD 27.30 [1][4][19]. Core Insights - The online business is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2024, with projected revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, driven by a 9% growth in paid reading users [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 1.4 billion, with a stable outlook for core paid reading revenue and growth anticipated from derivative products and short dramas [2][7]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in visual adaptations and the expansion of short drama and derivative product offerings [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 8.1 billion, with online business revenue expected to reach RMB 4.1 billion, reflecting a 5% increase from previous estimates [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 1.3 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 16.5% [3][21]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1.4 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17.5% [3][21]. Business Segments - The core IP operations are expected to generate RMB 2.7 billion in revenue for 2025, a 14% increase from the previous year [2][13]. - The new media segment, including short dramas, is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with over 100 new works planned for release in 2024 [2][7]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its offline channel capabilities for IP derivative products, with a projected gross merchandise value (GMV) exceeding RMB 500 million in 2024 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the acceleration of IP commercialization and the release of IP content and derivatives are expected to continue driving growth for the company [4][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 8.121 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with online business revenue contributing 4.03 billion yuan (up 2.1%) and IP operations and other business revenue reaching 4.09 billion yuan (up 33.5%) [4][7]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 1.349 billion yuan, 1.513 billion yuan, and 1.681 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.3, 1.5, and 1.7 yuan [4][7]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: - Revenue (million yuan): 7,012 (2023A), 8,121 (2024A), 9,135 (2025E), 10,135 (2026E), 10,906 (2027E) [7] - Net Profit (million yuan): 805 (2023A), -209 (2024A), 1,349 (2025E), 1,513 (2026E), 1,681 (2027E) [7] - Gross Margin (%): 48.1 (2023A), 48.3 (2024A), 52.0 (2025E), 53.0 (2026E), 54.0 (2027E) [7] - Net Margin (%): 11.5 (2023A), -2.6 (2024A), 14.8 (2025E), 14.9 (2026E), 15.4 (2027E) [7] - ROE (%): 4.2 (2023A), -1.1 (2024A), 6.8 (2025E), 7.1 (2026E), 7.3 (2027E) [7] - EPS (diluted, yuan): 0.8 (2023A), -0.2 (2024A), 1.3 (2025E), 1.5 (2026E), 1.7 (2027E) [7] - P/E (times): 32.0 (2023A), -123.0 (2024A), 19.1 (2025E), 17.0 (2026E), 15.3 (2027E) [7] - P/B (times): 1.4 (2023A), 1.4 (2024A), 1.3 (2025E), 1.2 (2026E), 1.1 (2027E) [7]. IP Content and Ecosystem Expansion - The company is expanding its online reading content ecosystem, with 330,000 new authors and 650,000 new works added in 2024, leading to a 50% year-on-year increase in new books with over 50,000 subscriptions [5]. - The user community is becoming more active, with a 60% year-on-year increase in users casting a thousand monthly votes, driving monthly paying users to 9.1 million, a 4.6% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company is also exploring AI integration in the content industry, launching the "Writer Assistant" tool in 2025 to provide intelligent support for authors [5]. IP Premium Content and New Growth Areas - The company successfully launched several hit contents in 2024, including "Hot and Spicy" and "The Story of Roses," further solidifying its industry-leading position [6]. - The IP derivative business saw a GMV exceeding 500 million yuan in 2024, with card game GMV surpassing 200 million yuan, marking a historical high [6]. - The company secured the general agency rights for FunCrazy's "Nezha 2" derivatives during the 2025 Spring Festival, which is expected to further boost the IP derivative business [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the acceleration of IP commercialization and the release of IP content and derivatives are expected to continue driving growth for the company [4][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 8.121 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with online business revenue contributing 4.03 billion yuan (up 2.1%) and IP operations and other business revenue reaching 4.09 billion yuan (up 33.5%) [4][7] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 1.349 billion yuan, 1.513 billion yuan, and 1.681 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.3, 1.5, and 1.7 yuan [4][7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 was 7.012 billion yuan, with projections of 8.121 billion yuan for 2024, 9.135 billion yuan for 2025, 10.135 billion yuan for 2026, and 10.906 billion yuan for 2027 [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 805 million yuan, with a projected net profit of -209 million yuan for 2024, and a recovery to 1.349 billion yuan in 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 48.3% in 2024 to 54.0% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to recover from -2.6% in 2024 to 15.4% in 2027 [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 19.1 for 2025, 17.0 for 2026, and 15.3 for 2027 [7] IP Content Ecosystem Expansion - The company has expanded its online reading content ecosystem, adding 330,000 new authors and 650,000 new works in 2024, with a 50% year-on-year increase in new books with over 50,000 subscriptions [5] - The number of monthly paying users grew to 9.1 million, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, driven by a more active user community [5] IP Premium Content Release - The company successfully launched several hit titles in 2024, including "Hot and Spicy" and "The Story of the Rose," further solidifying its industry-leading position [6] - The GMV of IP derivatives exceeded 500 million yuan in 2024, with card game GMV surpassing 200 million yuan, marking a historical high [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the acceleration of IP commercialization and the release of IP content and derivatives are expected to continue driving growth for the company [4][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 8.121 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with online business revenue contributing 4.03 billion yuan (up 2.1%) and IP operations and other business revenue reaching 4.09 billion yuan (up 33.5%) [4][7] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 1.349 billion yuan, 1.513 billion yuan, and 1.681 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.3, 1.5, and 1.7 yuan [4][7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 was 7.012 billion yuan, with projections of 8.121 billion yuan for 2024, 9.135 billion yuan for 2025, 10.135 billion yuan for 2026, and 10.906 billion yuan for 2027 [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 805 million yuan, with a projected net profit of -209 million yuan for 2024, and a recovery to 1.349 billion yuan in 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 48.3% in 2024 to 54.0% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to recover from -2.6% in 2024 to 15.4% in 2027 [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 19.1 for 2025, 17.0 for 2026, and 15.3 for 2027 [7] IP Content Ecosystem Expansion - The company has expanded its online reading content ecosystem, adding 330,000 new authors and 650,000 new works in 2024, with a 50% year-on-year increase in new books with over 50,000 subscriptions [5] - The number of monthly paying users grew to 9.1 million, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, driven by a more active user community [5] IP Premium Content Release - The company successfully launched several hit titles in 2024, including "Hot and Spicy" and "The Story of Roses," further solidifying its industry-leading position [6] - The GMV of IP derivatives exceeded 500 million yuan in 2024, with card game GMV surpassing 200 million yuan, marking a historical high [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 2.6% from the current price of HKD 27.30 [1][4][19]. Core Insights - The online business is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2024, with projected revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, driven by a 9% increase in paid reading users. The core IP operation revenue is anticipated to grow by 20% year-on-year [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 4.4 billion, which aligns with previous profit warnings. For 2025, the company expects stable online business performance and a 14% increase in core IP operation revenue to RMB 2.69 billion [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 8.1 billion, with online business revenue expected to reach RMB 4.09 billion. The core IP operation is projected to generate RMB 2.69 billion [3][13][21]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1.34 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.42 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 17.5% [3][21][23]. Business Segments - The online business segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a forecast of RMB 4.09 billion for 2025, while the copyright operation and other segments are projected to generate RMB 4.01 billion [3][13]. - The company is focusing on expanding its derivative products and short drama business, which are anticipated to provide additional revenue streams [2][7]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 8.33%, with a 52-week high of HKD 36.00 and a low of HKD 23.30, indicating volatility in market performance [6][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][9][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.12 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, while the net loss attributable to shareholders was 210 million RMB, a decrease of 126% year-on-year. The NON-IFRS net profit was 1.14 billion RMB, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s strategic focus on IP (Intellectual Property) commercialization is showing significant potential, with a healthy cash flow growth of 123% year-on-year, reaching 2.53 billion RMB in 2024 [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin improved to 48.29% in 2024, up by 0.21 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio increased to 27.84%, up by 3.32 percentage points year-on-year, while the general and administrative expense ratio was well-controlled at 14.08%, down by 2.48 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Revenue breakdown shows that copyright operations generated 4.09 billion RMB, a 33.5% increase year-on-year, while online business revenue was 4.03 billion RMB, a modest increase of 2.1% year-on-year [3]. Business Strategy - The company has implemented a three-step strategy for IP development, achieving breakthroughs in both visualization and commercialization. In 2024, 330,000 new authors were added, and over 650,000 new novels were created, with new authors earning over 500,000 RMB increasing by over 70% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s IP commercialization efforts resulted in a GMV of over 500 million RMB for derivative products, with card products alone exceeding 200 million RMB [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 81.6 billion RMB, 86.3 billion RMB, and 89.7 billion RMB, respectively. The NON-IFRS net profit is projected to be 1.26 billion RMB, 1.43 billion RMB, and 1.54 billion RMB for the same years [5][8].

此外，自有平台产品及自营渠道的平均月活跃用户同比减少19.0%至1.666亿人。具体而言，公司自 有平台产品的月活跃用户为1.038亿人，同比保持大致稳定，2023年度则为1.048亿人。腾讯产品自营渠 道的月活跃用户同比减少37.7%至6280万人，主要是由于持续优化运营效率，更多内容通过核心付费阅 读产品进行分发，从而导致免费阅读渠道的月活跃用户减少。自有平台产品及自营渠道的平均月付费用 户同比增加4.6%至910万人，主要是由于2024年上线更多会员内容后会员用户有所增加。 在精品战略的指导下，2024年集团的IP运营业务收入同比增长34%至40亿元人民币。集团成功推出 了《热辣滚烫》《与凤行》《庆余年2》《玫瑰的故事》和《大奉打更人》等一系列爆款内容，进一步 巩固了行业领先地位;同时，借助爆款内容的影响力，集团加速推进IP商品化进程，衍生品业务在2024 年实现快速增长，全年GMV突破5亿元人民币。2025年春节期间，凭借线上线下（300959）全渠道发行 优势，公司成功拿下FunCrazy疯玩《哪咤2》轻软周衍生品的国内总经销权，不仅彰显了阅文在IP衍生 品领域的实力，也为《哪咤2》这一现象级IP的 ...