Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for CGN Mining with a target price of HK$2.36, indicating a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HK$1.52 [3]. Core Insights - CGN Mining's profit alert indicates a net profit drop of HK$130-180 million year-on-year for 2024, primarily due to a one-off dividend withholding tax and a fair value loss from share swaps related to Paladin Energy. However, excluding these items, the pretax profit from continuing operations is expected to grow by HK$230-280 million year-on-year, translating to a growth rate of 41-50% [1]. - The company is set to release its full-year results on March 20, 2025, and will host an analyst meeting on March 21, 2025 [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$7,363 million in FY23 to HK$10,992 million in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.3% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to decline from HK$497.1 million in FY23 to HK$443.4 million in FY24, a decrease of 10.8% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decrease from 6.54 HK$ cents in FY23 to 5.83 HK$ cents in FY24 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 26.1x in FY24, decreasing to 17.1x in FY25 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.8% in FY23 to 10.8% in FY24, before recovering to 14.6% in FY25 [2]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of CGN Mining is approximately HK$11,553 million, with an average turnover of HK$72.3 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has experienced a 1-month decline of 2.6% and a 3-month decline of 7.9% [5]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholder is China General Nuclear Power Corporation, holding 56.9% of the shares, followed by China Chengtong Holding Group with 10.0% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Group (1164 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.36, representing a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HKD 1.52 [4][5][25] Core Insights - The profit warning issued by China General Nuclear Power Group indicates a projected net profit decline of HKD 130-180 million for 2024, primarily due to one-off items such as dividend withholding tax and fair value changes from stock exchanges [1][2] - Excluding these one-off factors, the pre-tax profit from ongoing operations is expected to grow by HKD 230-280 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41-50%, slightly above previous forecasts [1][2] - The company reported a significant increase in income tax expenses for the first half of 2024, attributed to changes in Kazakhstan's tax policy regarding dividend withholding tax [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 7,363 million in FY23A to HKD 10,992 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 49.3% [3][12] - Adjusted net profit is expected to decline from HKD 497.1 million in FY23A to HKD 443.4 million in FY24E, a decrease of 10.8% [3][12] - The company’s earnings per share (adjusted) is forecasted to decrease from HKD 6.54 in FY23A to HKD 5.83 in FY24E [3][12] Shareholder Structure - China General Nuclear Power Group holds a 56.9% stake in the company, with China Chengtong Holdings holding 10.0% [5] Stock Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 2.6% over the past month and 7.9% over the past three months [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 2.36 based on a 3x net present value (NPV) calculation [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a structural growth trend in nuclear power, leading to increased demand for natural uranium over the next decade. This is coupled with limited uranium supply, which is anticipated to keep uranium prices elevated in the coming years [2]. - The average uranium price is projected to rise to USD 85 per pound in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30%, with further annual increases of 8% expected in 2025 and 2026 [2]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to double by 2026 compared to 2023, despite a projected decline in net profit for 2024 due to increased tax expenses [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company holds stakes in four low-cost uranium mines located in Kazakhstan through joint ventures with Kazatomprom (KAP). The average mining cost for these mines ranges from USD 17 to 27 per pound, which is considered low on a global scale [3]. Financial Projections - For 2023, the company's net profit is expected to decline by 11% to HKD 440 million, primarily due to a significant increase in tax expenses. However, net profits are projected to rebound with increases of 52% and 63% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in uranium spot prices could lead to a 0.7% increase in net profit for the company [4]. Cost and Tax Considerations - The report notes an increase in Kazakhstan's mineral extraction tax (MET), which will rise from 6% in 2024 to 9% in 2025. However, the overall impact of the new tax regime is expected to be manageable due to the relatively small scale of the mines [3]. - Anticipated increases in production costs are projected at 12% and 9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to tight sulfuric acid supply [3].

2024 年 11 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 首次覆盖 中广核矿业 (1164 HK) 低成本铀矿具优势 我们判断未来 10年天然铀需求将受惠于核电结构性增长趋势, 同时在铀矿供应受 限的背景下, 铀价将在未来数年保持高企（详见深度报告"原材料-天然铀受惠于 全球核电未来十年的结构上升周期") 。中广核矿业, 通过和哈原工(KAP)两家合 营公司持有四个位于哈萨克的低成本铀矿, 将受惠于铀价上升的长期趋势。我们 假设 2024 年全年平均铀价 85 美元/ib (同比上升 30%+), 2025/26 年每年上升 8%。我们预测 2026年盈利将有机会较 2023年翻倍。首次覆盖并给予买入评级, 3x 净现值(NPV)目标价 2.36 港元。 合资参股哈萨克的低成本铀矿。中广核矿业目前权益包括铀矿位于哈萨克斯 坦的谢公司和奥公司（各持股 49%）。2023 年谢公司和奥公司旗下四个矿 山开采平均成本价分别为每磅 17-27 美元, 在全球范围而言处于偏低水平。 展望未来,哈萨克把矿山资源税(MET)上调, 2025 年的税率将会从 2024 年的 6%上调至 9%, 而 2026 年的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (1164.HK) with a target price of HKD 2.25 [1][4]. Core Views - The third quarter operational performance met expectations, with a uranium production of 692.6 tons, achieving a completion rate of 97.2%. The report anticipates increased demand for natural uranium due to renewed focus on nuclear power in both China and the U.S. [1][2]. - The report forecasts net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 to be HKD 420.8 million, HKD 849.2 million, and HKD 1 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.055, HKD 0.112, and HKD 0.137 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a uranium production of 692.6 tons, with individual mines showing completion rates of 99.4% and 101.6% for specific operations [2]. - New procurement orders signed in Q3 totaled 1,179 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9%. The sales orders were 1,288 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 43.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44.9% [2]. Financial Performance - The report projects sales revenue to grow from HKD 3.65 billion in FY2022 to HKD 11.92 billion in FY2026, with a growth rate of 101.8% in FY2023 [3]. - The net profit is expected to decline slightly in FY2024 to HKD 420.8 million, before increasing significantly in the following years [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a PE ratio forecast of 32.51 for FY2024, decreasing to 13.09 by FY2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [3]. - The projected PB ratio is expected to decline from 32.4 in FY2024 to 2.39 in FY2026, suggesting a more favorable valuation over time [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Views - CGN Mining is positioned as a leading player in the uranium sector, benefiting from the recovery of nuclear power and the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the uranium market [2][3]. - The company is expected to leverage its strong backing from CGN Group, which holds a significant share of the Chinese nuclear power market, to secure stable and growing demand for natural uranium [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - CGN Mining is the only overseas uranium resource development platform under CGN Group, the largest nuclear power group in China [16]. - The company has a clear focus on uranium resource development and trade, having established a dual-driven business model of "trade + resources" [17][19]. Nuclear Power Recovery and Uranium Demand - The global nuclear power capacity is projected to grow from approximately 396 GW to 524 GW by 2030, leading to an increase in uranium demand by 22,506 tons per year [3][37]. - The report highlights a stable growth in demand for natural uranium driven by the recovery of the nuclear power sector, which has been revitalized since 2019 [28][29]. Supply Dynamics - The report notes a significant supply gap in the uranium market due to a decade of low exploration and production following the Fukushima disaster, leading to a reliance on secondary supply sources [4][40]. - The primary supply of uranium is expected to remain constrained, with the report indicating that the market is entering a long-term bullish phase for uranium prices [4][28]. Competitive Advantages - CGN Mining benefits from its strong relationship with CGN Group, which accounts for 53% of the Chinese nuclear power market, ensuring a reliable demand for uranium [5][57]. - The company holds approximately 39,000 tons of uranium resources, with a cost structure that positions it favorably in the global market, maintaining production costs between $20-$30 per pound U3O8 [6][65]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report forecasts CGN Mining's revenue to reach HKD 105.35 billion, HKD 130.37 billion, and HKD 142.41 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 5.10 billion, HKD 7.29 billion, and HKD 10.30 billion [7][76]. - A target price of HKD 1.92 per share is set based on a 20x PE valuation for 2025, indicating a potential upside of approximately 29% from the current price [11][76].

中广核QOCGN 中廣核礦業有限公司 CGN Mining Company Limited (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (於開曼群島注冊成立之有限公司) (Stock Code 股份代號 = 01164) r > Ø b 198 2024忠 Contents 目錄 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------|-------| | | | | | Corporate Information | 公司資料 | 2 | | Highlights of Interim Results | 中期業績摘要 | 5 | | Business Review and Analysis | 業務表現及分析 | 6 | | Business Prospect | 業務展望 | 18 | | Financial Review and F ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][8] Core Views - The company's revenue increased by 39% year-on-year to HKD 4.073 billion in H1 2024, primarily driven by rising natural uranium prices. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37% to HKD 113 million due to increased tax provisions related to dividend withholding tax [1][4][8] - The production of natural uranium met the production plan with a completion rate of 96.9%, and future production is expected to increase due to ongoing projects in Kazakhstan and Canada [1][7] - The strong momentum in nuclear power development supports long-term demand for uranium, with a total of 416 operational nuclear reactors globally as of June 30, 2024, and 59 reactors under construction [1][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 4.073 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year. The pre-tax profit was HKD 324 million, up 38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 113 million, down 37% [1][4] - The average sales price for uranium was USD 78.47 per pound, a 36% increase year-on-year, while the total sales revenue from uranium trading was HKD 8.93 billion [1][4][8] Production and Projects - The company produced a total of 1,334.1 tons of natural uranium in H1 2024, with a production completion rate of 96.9%. The second quarter saw a production of 727.4 tons, exceeding the planned target [1][7] - The company is focusing on resolving supply issues related to sulfuric acid, which has affected production rates in certain mines. The completion of the first phase of the Zha Mine is expected by the end of 2024 [1][7] Market and Industry Outlook - The nuclear power sector is experiencing robust growth, which is expected to drive uranium demand. As of August 19, 2024, the Chinese government approved five nuclear projects, continuing a trend of approving ten or more units for three consecutive years [1][7] - The average spot price for natural uranium was USD 84.38 per pound as of June 2024, reflecting a 7.3% decrease since the beginning of the year, while long-term contract prices have risen by 16.9% [1][7]

香港股市 | 新能源 | 核燃料 公司点评 中广核矿业（1164 HK） 低成本+保下限定价：减少铀价波动对盈利的影响 未评级 1H24 年股东净利润同比下跌 37.0% 公司 FY24 年中期业绩逊于市场预期。上半年股东净利润同比下跌 37.0%至 1.1 亿元(港 币，下同)，主因(一)公司毛利由 1H23 的 1.9 亿元盈利转为 5,643 万元亏损，因天然铀贸 易价差转正为负；(二)所得税支出同比大幅增加 277.7%至 2.1 亿元。由于哈萨克斯坦收紧 税收优惠，公司估计未必可享用因持股联营铀矿企业奥公司(Ortalyk)而衍生分红预提税的 5%优惠税率，因此先行恢复至 15%基本税率(见图表 1)。 铀矿业务盈利大幅增加 虽然如此，上半年铀矿业务盈利同比大幅增长。合营企业谢公司(Semizbay-U)及联营公司 奥公司(Ortalyk)应占利润分别同比上升 194.6%及 481.0%至 2.1 亿元及 2.3 亿元。铀矿总产 量同比增加 5.2%至 1,334tU。销售均价同比上涨 34.5%至 78 美元(每磅计算，下同)。 足够防范铀价波动的影响 今年初现货铀价一度突破 100 美元高水平 ...

2024 年 8 月 27 日 中广核矿业（1164.HK） 海外矿山收益大幅增长，分红税政策变动影响净利 事件：中广核矿业公布 2024 年上半年业绩，公司实现营收 40.73 亿港元，税前 利润 3.24 亿港元，同比上升 37.5%；净利润 1.13 亿港元，同比下降 37.1%。因 上半年国际铀价维持高位及海外矿山成本优势，其投资收益增长亮眼，但因受 到哈国税收政策变动，补交过往三年税费导致所得税大幅上升，影响净利润。但 公司作为行业稀有标的，在国内核电大发展背景及天然铀量价共升推动下，看 好公司未来业绩长期发展，维持"买入"评级。 报告摘要 上半年税前利润同比增加 37.5%，受海外税收变动影响净利降幅较大 2024 年上 半年公司实现营收 40.73 亿港元，实现税前利润 3.24 亿港元，同比上升 37.5%； 实现净利润 1.13 亿港元，同比下降 37.1%；实现每股基本盈利 1.49 港仙，同比 下降 37%。公司上半年净利润下降由于所得税费用大幅上升，上半年所得税费用 达 2.1 亿港元，同比增加 278%，其原因为哈国协定税率优惠适用口径收紧后， 公司因审慎考虑补缴 2020-23 年 ...