证券研究报告|港股公司点评研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 17 日 [Table_Title] Q1 主品牌中单位数增长，索康尼超 40% [Table_Title2] 特步国际(1368.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1368 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 7.13/4.15 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | 最新收盘价： | 4.71 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,774.56 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司公告 2025Q1 运营数据：Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长，折扣为七到七五折，渠道库存为约四 个月，25Q1 索康尼零售销售实现约 40%同比增长。 分析判断: 25Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长（1）分渠道来看，25Q1 零售流水中单位数增长，增速环比较 24Q4 高单位数增长有所下降；（2）从 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 17 日 [Table_Title] Q1 主品牌中单位数增长，索康尼超 40% [Table_Title2] 特步国际(1368.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1368 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 7.13/4.15 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | 最新收盘价： | 4.71 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,774.56 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司公告 2025Q1 运营数据：Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长，折扣为七到七五折，渠道库存为约四 个月，25Q1 索康尼零售销售实现约 40%同比增长。 分析判断: 25Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长（1）分渠道来看，25Q1 零售流水中单位数增长，增速环比较 24Q4 高单位数增长有所下降；（2）从 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year reached RMB 13,577 million, representing a growth of 6.5%[8] - Operating profit amounted to RMB 1,966 million, an increase of 9.3%[8] - Profit attributable to ordinary equity holders was RMB 1,238 million, reflecting a growth of 20.2%[8] - Revenue for 2024 reached RMB 13,577.2 million, a 6.6% increase from RMB 12,742.9 million in 2023[27] - Gross profit for 2024 was RMB 5,865.4 million, reflecting a gross margin of 43.2%, up from 41.8% in 2023[27] - Operating profit increased to RMB 1,965.5 million, with an operating margin of 14.5%, compared to 14.1% in the previous year[27] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 1,238.4 million, resulting in basic earnings per share of RMB 48.67, up from RMB 40.76 in 2023[27] - The group reported a loss from discontinued operations of RMB 67.1 million, a significant reduction from RMB 224.3 million in 2023[145] - The net profit attributable to equity holders increased by RMB 208.4 million or 20.2% to RMB 1,238.4 million, with a net profit margin improving to 9.1% from 8.1%[146] Dividends and Payouts - The final dividend per share declared was 9.5 HK cents, with a full-year payout ratio of 138.2%[8][9] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.095 per share, with a total annual dividend payout ratio of 138.2%, significantly up from 50.0% in 2023[32] - Total dividends for 2024 amount to HKD 0.698, a significant increase from HKD 0.217 in 2023, representing a payout ratio of 138.2%[149] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% over the past five years, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns[150] Strategic Initiatives - The company completed the strategic sale of K•SWISS and Palladium, focusing resources on the main brand, Saucony, and Merrell[23] - The company plans to leverage government economic stimulus measures to boost market confidence and consumer demand[31] - The company plans to strengthen its direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy to enhance brand loyalty and operational efficiency, optimizing retail channel structures for better market insights[108] - The company is expanding its market presence with new flagship and concept stores, enhancing customer experience and brand visibility[89] Brand Performance - Retail sales for the main brand and Saucony recorded high single-digit and over 60% growth, respectively, indicating strong market performance[31] - Saucony, a brand under the group, achieved over RMB 1 billion in revenue for the first time in 2024, marking a significant milestone[37] - The professional sports division, Saucony, achieved revenue of RMB 1,250.3 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 57.2%[88] - Saucony's operating profit increased significantly to RMB 78.2 million in 2024, compared to RMB 8.4 million in 2023[88] Market Trends and Opportunities - The outdoor sports market in China presents growth opportunities for the brand Maile, which is actively expanding its e-commerce business[38] - The number of marathons held in China reached 671 in 2024, with participation exceeding 6.56 million, indicating a strong running trend[41] - E-commerce in China saw a significant recovery, with the logistics index reaching 113.7 points, a 3.6-point increase from the previous year[43] - The group anticipates steady growth in sports goods demand, supported by government measures to stimulate consumption[109] Operational Efficiency - The average inventory turnover days improved to 68 days in 2024, down from 90 days in 2023, enhancing operational efficiency[27] - The overall working capital turnover days increased to 87 days in 2024 from 83 days in 2023[151] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 22 days to 68 days in 2024, while trade receivables turnover days increased by 14 days to 120 days[159] Research and Development - Research and development expenses accounted for 2.9% of revenue, slightly down from 3.1% in 2023, reflecting a focus on cost management[27] - The new running shoe technology incorporates PISA supercritical foam for high rebound and cushioning, significantly reducing energy loss compared to traditional materials[77] Community Engagement and CSR - The company donated over RMB 58 million in sports goods and cash in 2024, including RMB 10 million in winter supplies for earthquake relief in Tibet[98] - The company provided over 710,000 hours of training to employees through its talent center, focusing on professional skills, leadership, and cultural operations[106] Investor Relations - The company actively communicated with investors to restore confidence amid macroeconomic uncertainties, enhancing transparency and two-way communication[178] - The company participated in 350 investor meetings throughout the year, including both online and offline events across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific[184] Future Outlook - Future outlook remains positive with expectations of stable growth in the sports industry driven by increased health awareness and sports demand[31] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its retail management capabilities[179]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.99 per share, reflecting a 5% upside potential [4][7]. Core Insights - The main brand shows steady growth, with a 6.5% increase in revenue to RMB 13.58 billion in 2024, driven by a 3.2% increase in Volkswagen and a 57.2% increase in professional sports revenue [4][7]. - Gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2%, with net profit rising 20.2% to RMB 1.24 billion, indicating enhanced profitability primarily from the professional sports segment and reduced losses from KP [4][7]. - The company plans to focus on direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies and optimize retail channels, aiming to reclaim 400-500 stores by 2026, which will account for 5.0-6.3% of total stores [4][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a decline in 2024 to RMB 13.58 billion, followed by growth to RMB 14.47 billion in 2025, and further increases to RMB 15.62 billion in 2026 and RMB 17.00 billion in 2027 [3][6]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1.24 billion in 2024 to RMB 1.37 billion in 2025, reaching RMB 1.49 billion in 2026 and RMB 1.61 billion in 2027 [3][6]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 44.69% by 2027 [3][6]. Strategic Developments - The divestment of the fashion sports segment in November 2024 allows the company to concentrate on running and operational optimization, with professional sports expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 104.3% over the next four years [4][7]. - Saucony's revenue exceeded RMB 1 billion, and the brand is set to continue expanding its store presence and product offerings, particularly in high-end cities [4][7]. - The company plans significant capital expenditure of RMB 500 million in 2025, reflecting a 91% increase, to support its growth initiatives [4][7].

特步国际（1368）公司年报点评 2025 年 3 月 25 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 | [Table_StockInfo] 3 月 24 日收盘价（港元） | 5.27 | | --- | --- | | 周股价波动（港元） 52 | 3.70-7.13 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2775 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 14622 | [《Ta24bQle4_主R品ep牌o流rtI水nf回o暖] ，索康尼全年收入规 模有望破 10 亿》2025.01.17 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 Email:lx11040@haitong.com 《24Q3 索康尼持续高增，看好盈利水平提升》 2024.11.6 《主品牌电商表现亮眼，专业运动收入高增 72%》2024.08.25 《24Q2 主品牌折扣库存改善》2024.07.24 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） -0.2 % 相对涨幅（%） -1.1 % 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师:盛开 Tel:(021)2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7 HKD [1][4][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.58 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion RMB, which is a 20.2% increase year-on-year [2][4] - The professional sports segment, including the Saucony brand, saw a significant revenue increase of 57.2% to 1.25 billion RMB, while the main brand, Xtep, grew by 3.2% to 12.33 billion RMB [2][3] - The company has focused on enhancing its brand image and expanding its product matrix, with the Saucony brand achieving a compound annual growth rate of over 100% over the past five years [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 14.40 billion RMB, Net Profit: 1.38 billion RMB, EPS: 0.54 RMB - 2026E Revenue: 15.70 billion RMB, Net Profit: 1.54 billion RMB, EPS: 0.61 RMB - 2027E Revenue: 16.85 billion RMB, Net Profit: 1.69 billion RMB, EPS: 0.67 RMB [5][13] - The overall gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 43.2%, driven by a significant increase in the gross margin of the professional sports segment [2][3][14] Strategic Developments - The company announced the divestiture of its fashion sports division, which is expected to alleviate profit pressure and allow for a focus on the main brand and Saucony, potentially leading to faster growth [3][4] - Management changes are anticipated to enhance the company's overseas expansion efforts, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Viewpoints - The main brand, Xtep, shows steady performance with a revenue increase of 3% to 12.3 billion, while professional sports revenue (including Saucony) surged by 57% to 1.3 billion [1] - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.6 billion, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [1] - The company is focusing on a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy to enhance brand loyalty and customer retention, with plans to reclaim distribution rights for 400-500 stores by 2026 [3] - The running trend in China continues to grow, with Xtep achieving the highest wearing rate in major marathons, solidifying its position as a leading running brand [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is 13.6 billion, up 7% year-on-year; main brand revenue is 12.3 billion, up 3%, and professional sports revenue is 1.3 billion, up 57% [1] - Footwear revenue is 8.1 billion (59% of total), up 16%, while apparel revenue is 5.2 billion, down 6% [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is 43%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.2 billion, a 20% increase [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company operates 6,382 adult brand stores and 1,584 children's stores in China, with plans to enhance its DTC strategy [3] - Saucony is positioned as a secondary growth driver, ranking among the top three in marathon shoe wearing rates [2] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 14.7 billion, 15.8 billion, and 17 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of 1.36 billion, 1.52 billion, and 1.69 billion [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 1.24 billion RMB for FY2024, marking a 20.2% year-on-year increase, achieving a historical high [5] - The main brand's revenue grew steadily, with professional sports showing strong performance, particularly with a 57.2% increase in revenue from the professional sports segment [5] - The company is focusing on direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel transformation to enhance long-term competitiveness [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2023 revenue was 143.46 billion RMB, with a projected revenue of 146.36 billion RMB for FY2025, reflecting an 8% growth [4] - The net profit for FY2023 was 1.03 billion RMB, expected to rise to 1.37 billion RMB by FY2025, indicating a 10% growth [4] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 42% in FY2023 to 45% by FY2027 [4] Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand's revenue accounted for 90.8% of total revenue, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 41.8% [5] - Online sales grew approximately 20%, with new platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu seeing over 80% growth [5] - The company operates 6,382 adult clothing stores, with a net decrease of 189 stores, while children's stores numbered 1,584, with a net decrease of 119 stores [5] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin improved to 43.2%, with a net profit margin of 9.1% [5] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 22 days to 68 days, indicating improved efficiency [5] - Operating cash flow remained stable at 1.228 billion RMB, with cash and cash equivalents totaling 3 billion RMB [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 135.77 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5% after excluding the divested K&P business. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, aligning with expectations [4]. - The main brand, Xtep, reported a revenue of 123.27 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 3.2%. The online e-commerce segment saw approximately 20% growth, accounting for over 30% of total revenue, with emerging platforms like Douyin experiencing over 80% growth [4]. - The professional sports segment, including Saucony, achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 57.2%. Saucony's revenue surpassed 1 billion yuan, with improved profitability [4]. - The company plans to enhance its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy, aiming to recover distribution rights for approximately 400 to 500 Xtep stores by late 2025 and 2026 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 14,346 million yuan, 2024A at 13,577 million yuan, 2025E at 14,531 million yuan, 2026E at 15,685 million yuan, and 2027E at 16,831 million yuan [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,030 million yuan in 2023A, increasing to 1,672 million yuan by 2027E, with a consistent growth rate of around 10% [2]. - The company's gross margin improved to 43.2% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 13.1 for 2023A, decreasing to 8.1 by 2027E, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.5 in 2023A to 1.0 in 2027E, indicating a strengthening balance sheet relative to market valuation [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.34 based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, introducing a new forecast for 2027, with expected earnings per share of RMB 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 for 2025-2027 respectively [4][5]. - The main brand is focusing on increasing Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) investments to enhance customer interaction and brand loyalty [7][8]. - The professional sports segment, particularly the Saucony brand, has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, indicating the effectiveness of the DTC strategy [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 14,346 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 13,577 million, RMB 14,452 million, RMB 15,795 million, and RMB 17,244 million respectively, with growth rates of -5.4%, 6.4%, 9.3%, and 9.2% [4][8]. - The operating profit for 2023 was RMB 1,580 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The expected operating profits for the following years are RMB 1,966 million, RMB 1,980 million, RMB 2,309 million, and RMB 2,593 million, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 0.7%, 16.6%, and 12.3% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was RMB 1,030 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The forecasts for the next four years are RMB 1,238 million, RMB 1,369 million, RMB 1,558 million, and RMB 1,745 million, with growth rates of 20.2%, 10.6%, 13.8%, and 12.0% [4][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.2% to 10.1% over the same period [4][8].