Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.58 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit of 1.24 billion RMB, up 20.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has successfully divested its KP business, which has alleviated profit drag, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 1.0 percentage points to 9.1% [6] - The main brand, Xtep, and the professional sports brand, Saucony, are focusing on running and retail reform, with significant growth in the professional sports segment [12][13] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown for 2024 shows footwear, apparel, and accessories contributing 59.3%, 38.5%, and 2.2% respectively, with footwear revenue growing by 15.9% [7] - The gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2%, with the professional sports segment's gross margin rising significantly due to acquisitions [8] - Operating profit margin for 2024 was 14.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [11] Retail and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the running segment, with the main brand's running shoes leading in major marathon events [12] - The number of adult stores decreased by 2.9% to 6,382, while the number of children's stores decreased by 7.0% to 1,584 [7] - The company plans to enhance direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies, aiming to reclaim distribution rights for 400-500 stores by late 2025 to 2026 [12] Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth for the main brand in 2025, with Saucony's revenue projected to grow by 30-40% [12] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50, 0.55, and 0.61 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.34 HKD based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, while introducing projections for 2027, expecting earnings per share of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 RMB for 2025-2027 respectively [4]. - The main brand, Xtep, is focusing on increasing direct-to-consumer (DTC) investments to enhance customer interaction and brand loyalty [7]. - The professional sports segment, represented by Saucony, has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, indicating the effectiveness of the DTC strategy [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 14,346 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13,577 million, 14,452 million, 15,795 million, and 17,244 million RMB respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,030 million RMB, with a projected increase to 1,238 million, 1,369 million, 1,558 million, and 1,745 million RMB for the following years [4][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 7.2% to 10.1% over the same period [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.58 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit of 1.24 billion RMB, up 20.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has strategically divested its KP business, which has alleviated profit drag, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 1.0 percentage points to 9.1% [6] - The main brand, Xtep, and the professional sports brand, Saucony, are focusing on running and retail reform, with a strong emphasis on enhancing consumer experience [12][13] Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2% in 2024, with the professional sports segment's gross margin rising significantly due to the acquisition of Saucony and Myle [8] - The operating profit margin for 2024 was 14.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.095 HKD per share, with a total payout ratio of 138.2% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from the main brand (Xtep) and professional sports (Saucony, Myle) accounted for 90.8% and 9.2% of total revenue, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.2% and 57.2% [7] - The footwear segment contributed 59.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, while apparel and accessories saw declines [7] Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth for the main brand in 2025, with Saucony projected to grow by 30-40% year-on-year [12] - The report slightly lowers the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 3% and 4%, respectively, while introducing a forecast for 2027 [12][14]

买入（维持） 2025 年 3 月 20 日 公司研究 剥离 KP 业务、索康尼实现高增，聚焦跑步、推进零售改革 ——特步国际（1368.HK）2024 年业绩点评 当前价：5.55 元港币 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 27.75 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 153.99 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 4.15/7.13 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 49.0% | 股价相对走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 24/01 24/02 24/03 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.03, representing a potential upside of 23.5% from the current stock price of HKD 5.69 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20.2% in 2024, driven by increased investment in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) business [2][6]. - The main brand, Xtep, showed stable growth with a revenue increase of 3.2% to RMB 12.3 billion, benefiting from strong online channel performance [6][7]. - The professional sports segment experienced significant growth of 57.2%, with revenue reaching RMB 1.25 billion, supported by the acquisition of Saucony and Merrell [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 12,743 million in 2023, RMB 13,577 million in 2024, RMB 14,940 million in 2025, RMB 16,410 million in 2026, and RMB 17,962 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 10.5%, 6.5%, 10.0%, 9.8%, and 9.5% respectively [3][7]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 1,798 million in 2023 to RMB 2,587 million in 2027, with a notable increase of 91.9% in 2023 [3][7]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1,030 million in 2023 to RMB 1,732 million in 2027, with a growth of 161.3% in 2023 and 20.2% in 2024 [3][7]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with net cash of RMB 980 million and a dividend payout ratio of 50% [6][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to continue focusing on the running segment, aiming to solidify its position as the leading running brand in China [6][7]. - The strategy includes enhancing operational efficiency by reclaiming distribution rights for approximately 400-500 stores and directly operating flagship stores to improve customer experience [6][7]. - The company anticipates capital expenditures of RMB 500 million for 2025-2026 to support growth initiatives [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17][20] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 20% in 2024, with a revenue increase of 6.5% to 13.577 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 1.238 billion yuan [1][3] - The main brand's revenue grew by 3.2%, while the professional sports brand saw a significant increase of 57.2%. The footwear category experienced a revenue growth of 15.9%, while the apparel category declined by 5.7% [2][3] - The company has strategically divested non-core assets, focusing resources on running and professional sports, which is expected to enhance profitability [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a net profit of 1.238 billion yuan, a 20.2% increase year-on-year. The operating cash flow remained stable at 1.228 billion yuan, with a net cash ratio of 1.0 [1][4] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin professional sports brands and supply chain optimization [1][4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50%, with a total dividend yield of 138.2% for the year [1] Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The projected earnings for 2025 are expected to grow by 10%, with net profits estimated at 1.402 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.2% increase [3][4] - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 5.4% in 2025, reaching 14.311 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 9.8% [4][18] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be between 11-12x for 2025, with a reasonable valuation range of 6.1 to 6.6 HKD [3][5][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17][20] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 20% in 2024, with a revenue increase of 6.5% to 13.577 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 1.238 billion yuan [1][3] - The main brand's revenue grew by 3.2%, while the professional sports brand saw a significant increase of 57.2%. The footwear category experienced a revenue growth of 15.9%, while the apparel category declined by 5.7% [2][3] - The company has strategically divested non-core assets, focusing resources on running and professional sports, which is expected to enhance profitability [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 1.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. The operating cash flow remained stable at 1.228 billion yuan, with a net cash ratio of 1.0 [1][4] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin professional sports brands and supply chain optimization [1][4] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue reached 12.327 billion yuan, with a notable performance from the core running shoe series "160X," which led in wearing rates at major marathons [2][3] - The professional sports brands, including Saucony and Merrell, achieved a revenue of 1.250 billion yuan, with a significant improvement in operating profit margin [2][3] Future Projections - For 2025, the company anticipates a net profit growth of over 10%, with the main brand maintaining positive growth and the professional sports brand expected to grow by 30-40% [3][17] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.402 billion yuan, 1.485 billion yuan, and 1.600 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 13.577 billion yuan, down 5.36% year-on-year, primarily due to the divestment of a loss-making business. Excluding this factor, the revenue from continuing operations grew by 6.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.238 billion yuan, an increase of 20.23% year-on-year, benefiting from the divestment of the loss-making business. Adjusting for one-time tax benefits, the net profit growth was 10% [8] - The main brand, Xtep, is focusing on direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies, with e-commerce leading growth and offline channels being optimized. The company plans to convert 400-500 dealer stores to DTC by 2025 [8] - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, achieved over 1 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 57.2%. The company plans to increase flagship stores in high-tier cities in 2025 [8] - Gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points to 43.2% in 2024, while the expense ratio saw a slight increase due to higher costs associated with the acquisition of Saucony and increased e-commerce expenses [8] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly downward to 1.37 billion yuan and 1.57 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 1.77 billion yuan [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 14.346 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.577 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 14.313 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - Net profit for 2023 was 1.03 billion yuan, expected to rise to 1.238 billion yuan in 2024 and continue increasing to 1.769 billion yuan by 2027 [1] Brand Strategy - The main brand Xtep's revenue in 2024 was 12.327 billion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, with a focus on the running segment and a strong presence in major marathon events [8] - Saucony's revenue reached 1.25 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth across e-commerce, retail, and wholesale channels [8] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.2%, with the main brand's margin slightly declining to 41.8% while Saucony's margin improved significantly [8] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, with net cash increasing by 5.6% to 988 million yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 13.577 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.36%. Excluding the impact of divesting the loss-making business, the revenue from continuing operations increased by 6.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.238 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.23%, driven by the divestment of the loss-making business [8] - The main brand, Xtep, is focusing on direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies, with e-commerce leading growth and offline channels being optimized. The company plans to convert 400-500 distributor stores to DTC by 2025 [8] - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, achieved revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 57.2%. The company plans to expand its flagship stores in high-tier cities [8] - The gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points to 43.2% in 2024, with a healthy cash position reflected in a net cash of 985 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5.6% [8] - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards to 1.37 billion yuan and 1.57 billion yuan, respectively, while a new forecast for 2027 is set at 1.77 billion yuan [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.577 billion yuan, 14.313 billion yuan, 15.471 billion yuan, and 16.708 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.369 billion yuan in 2025, 1.566 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.768 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.49 yuan in 2025, 0.56 yuan in 2026, and 0.64 yuan in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The professional sports segment is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 20% [5] - The company has completed the strategic divestiture of KP Global, with a revenue growth of 6.5% year-on-year for 2024 [7] - The company focuses on the running segment, enhancing resource allocation to optimize operations [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 135.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, with gross profit of RMB 58.65 billion, up 10.0% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be RMB 12.38 billion, reflecting a 20.2% increase [7] - The gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 43.2% and 9.1%, respectively, improving by 1.36 percentage points and 1.04 percentage points compared to 2023 [7] Brand and Product Analysis - The company’s main brand, Xtep, shows steady growth with 2024 revenue of RMB 123.27 billion, up 3.2%, driven by strong online channel performance [7] - The professional sports segment (including Saucony and Merrell) is growing rapidly, with 2024 revenue of RMB 12.50 billion, a 57.2% increase [7] - The footwear segment achieved revenue of RMB 80.54 billion in 2024, a 15.9% increase, and accounted for 59.3% of total revenue [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 13.63 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.07% [6][7] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is RMB 0.49, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.46 [6] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 13.54% in 2025 [6]