Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main brand showed accelerated growth in Q4 2024, with e-commerce performing particularly well, driven by extended Double 11 promotions [8] - Saucony continued its strong growth trajectory, with Q4 2024 sales up 50% YoY and full-year growth exceeding 60% [8] - The company is expected to further expand its running shoe product matrix in 2025, including the launch of the 7th generation of the 160 series and other segmented products [8] - The main brand's discount rate improved YoY, and inventory levels remained healthy at around 4 months [8] - The company is expected to increase store openings in high-tier cities for Saucony in 2025, while also expanding into commuter and retro product lines [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 14,346 million in 2023A to RMB 17,520 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 6.9% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 1,030 million in 2023A to RMB 1,648 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 16.9% [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.38 in 2023A to RMB 0.61 in 2026E [1] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 13.42x in 2023A to 8.39x in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [1] Operational Highlights - Main brand's Q4 2024 retail sales grew by high single digits YoY, with e-commerce sales up over 20% [8] - Saucony's Q4 2024 retail sales increased by 50% YoY, with full-year growth exceeding 60% [8] - The company maintained a healthy inventory turnover of around 4 months [8] - The main brand's discount rate improved to 7-7.5折 in Q4 2024, compared to the previous quarter [8] Market Data - Closing price: HKD 5.60 [6] - 52-week range: HKD 3.68 - HKD 7.13 [6] - P/B ratio: 1.57x [6] - Market capitalization: HKD 15,028.44 million [6] Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to increase from 11.62% in 2023A to 13.43% in 2026E [9] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 42.17% in 2023A to 44.43% in 2026E [9] - Net profit margin is forecasted to rise from 7.18% in 2023A to 9.41% in 2026E [9] - Debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decline from 48.50% in 2023A to 43.90% in 2026E [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 10x for 2025 [4][5] Core Views - The company's main brand, Xtep, achieved high single-digit year-over-year (YoY) growth in Q4 2024, with retail discounts ranging between 70-75% and inventory turnover days around 4 months, indicating stable operations [3] - E-commerce sales grew over 20% YoY in Q4 2024, driven by product structure optimization and the "Double 11" shopping festival, while offline sales grew at a low single-digit rate [3] - Saucony, a sub-brand, saw a 50% YoY growth in Q4 2024 and over 60% growth for the full year, with potential for long-term scale expansion due to improved product mix and store optimization [9] - The company is expected to achieve over 20% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, supported by the successful divestment of the KP business [9] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline by 7.2% YoY in 2024 but rebound with 11.4% and 11.6% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 20.5% YoY in 2024, followed by 11.9% and 12.5% growth in 2025 and 2026 [10] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 44.7% in 2026, while net margin is expected to remain stable at around 9.4% from 2025 onwards [7] - ROE is projected to increase from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2024, then stabilize at around 12% in the following years [10] Operational Highlights - The company optimized its offline store structure in 2024 by opening larger stores and closing smaller ones, with the proportion of ninth-generation stores gradually increasing [3] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with channel inventory turnover days at around 4 months by the end of Q4 2024, reflecting efficient retail operations and inventory management [9] - The company continued to enhance its e-commerce business by increasing the proportion of high-value-for-money products, contributing to strong online sales growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Xtep International (01368 HK) [1][6] Core Views - Xtep's main brand achieved high single-digit retail sales growth in Q4 and full year 2024, with online sales growing over 20% and offline sales growing low single-digit [2][3] - Saucony brand achieved over 60% growth in 2024, exceeding management guidance [2][3] - KP brand's divestiture is expected to enhance Xtep Group's profitability, with 2024 net profit target highly achievable [6] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast is adjusted to 1 25/14 0/15 6 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 20 9%/12 5%/10 9% [6] Operational Performance - Xtep main brand's Q4 retail discount improved to 7-7 5折 compared to 7折 in the same period last year [3] - Year-end inventory-to-sales ratio improved to 4 months, down from 4-4 5 months in the same period last year [3] - Saucony achieved approximately 50% growth in Q4 2024 [3] - January trends show positive momentum with main brand achieving double-digit growth, partly driven by earlier Chinese New Year [3] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 13 738/14 902/16 196 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit margin forecast: 9 1%/9 4%/9 6% [7] - 2024-2026 ROE forecast: 13 1%/13 8%/14 2% [7] - 2024-2026 PE ratio forecast: 11 3x/10 0x/9 0x [7] Valuation - Maintains reasonable valuation range of 6 1-6 6 HKD, corresponding to 11-12x 2025 PE [6] - Comparable company valuation shows Xtep trading at lower PE multiples than Anta and Li Ning [8] Strategic Focus - Company focuses on running category expertise, with main brand targeting mass market and Saucony targeting "dual elite" segment [6] - KP brand's divestiture expected to improve profitability, as it incurred annual operating losses of around 180 million yuan in 2022-2023 [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][34][38]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading domestic sportswear brand focusing on the running segment, leveraging continuous R&D investments to achieve technological advancements in footwear and apparel, thereby establishing high competitive barriers. The company is also enhancing brand competitiveness through differentiated channel strategies and effective marketing, indicating significant long-term growth potential [6][34][38]. - The financial forecasts predict the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 12.64 billion, 13.95 billion, and 15.99 billion RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 22.73%, 10.36%, and 14.65% [5][34][41]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for FY2023 is projected at 14.35 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.94%. For FY2024, revenue is expected to reach 14.86 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 3.61%. The forecast for FY2025 and FY2026 is 15.41 billion and 16.94 billion RMB, with growth rates of 3.69% and 9.91%, respectively [5][25][34]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 42.20% in FY2023 to 44.27% in FY2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][25][34]. Market and Industry Insights - The running culture in China is growing, with a significant increase in marathon events and participants, which is expected to drive demand for running-related products. The number of certified marathon events in 2023 reached 699, nearing pre-pandemic levels, highlighting a robust recovery in the running community [136][139]. - The domestic sportswear market is witnessing a shift towards leading national brands, with the market share of top brands like Anta, Li Ning, and Xtep increasing significantly. The market concentration is expected to continue as consumer preferences evolve towards domestic brands [139][140]. Company Strategy and Development - The company has been focusing on expanding its online channels, which have shown a growth rate exceeding 20% year-on-year, contributing to over 30% of the main brand's revenue. This shift is expected to become a new growth driver for the company [21][22]. - The company actively sponsors marathon events and has signed multiple sports celebrities as brand ambassadors, reinforcing its professional image in the running segment and enhancing brand recognition among consumers [22][34]. Competitive Positioning - The company is strategically positioned in the running footwear market, with its main brand catering to both mass and elite consumer segments. The introduction of specialized brands like Saucony and Merrell targets professional runners and outdoor enthusiasts, further diversifying its market reach [34][126]. - The report highlights that the company's average PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 11.4X, which is lower than the industry average of 14.0X, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to its peers [34][41].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 特步国际（1368）公司公告点评 2024 年 11 月 06 日 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | 股票数据 | | | [Table_StockInfo] 11 月 05 日收盘价（港元） | 5.72 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 3.13-7.13 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2684 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 15350 | | 相关研究 | | | [ Ta b le _R e po r tIn fo ] | | | 《 主 品 牌 电 商 表 现 亮 眼 | ，专业运动收入高增 | | 72%》2024.08.25 | | | 《 24Q2 主品牌折扣库存改善》 《 流水增长稳健，库存周转同比改善》 | 2024.07.24 | | 24Q1 | | | 2024.04.25 市场表现 | | [Table_Quote ...

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨特步国际（1368.HK） [Table_Title] 流水稳健增长，库存&折扣健康 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------| | | | | | 报告要点 | | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 柯睿 SAC：S0490518020002 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 特步国际（1368.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_BaseData] 当前股价（HKD） 5.76 注：股价为 2024 年 10 月 31 日收盘价 [Table_Title2] 流水稳健增长，库存&折扣健康 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2024Q3 零售数据，特步主品牌流水同比中单位数增长，索康尼流水同比超 50%增 长，流水表现符合预期。 事件评论 ⚫ 主品牌稳健增长，索康尼增长亮眼。特步 Q3 全渠道流水中单增长，线下客流&连带等多 指标均有所拖累。月度趋势来看预计 7-9 月均有所承压，但 10 月换季等影响催化流水恢 ...

2024 年 10 月 28 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 特步国际 (1368 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$6.95) 买入 措有 塑出 10 月 MTD 流水低双位数增长，有望完成全年指引 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | 目标价 : HK$6.95 | 当前股价 : HK$5.79 | | 股价上行 / 下行空间 | +20% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 7.41/3.61 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 1,970 | | 当前发行数量 (百万股) | 2,645 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) | 7 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 群成投资 按 2024 年 10 月 28 日收市数据 资料来源: FactSet | 47 | 股价表现 | --- | |-----------------| | | | 评级 | | 目标价 (H ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

特步国际（01368.HK） 服装家纺 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 24 日 主品牌 10 月流水提速，索康尼延续高增 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

港股通 证券研究报告 特步国际 (1368 HK) 索康尼表现靓丽，KP 剥离进展顺利 2024年10月24日│中国香港 服装 公司公布 2024 年三季度的运营情况：特步主品牌（包括线上和线下渠道） 流水同比中单位数增长，环比 2Q24 10%的增长，增速有所放缓主因三季度 客流和连带率承压所致。索康尼 3Q24 流水同比+50%，延续强劲表现。全 年看，我们预计随着 KP 的剥离以及费用的控制，公司利润增速有望快于收 入。中长期看，公司主品牌持续强化跑步矩阵，专业运动品牌打造第二增长 曲线，维持"买入"评级。 电商和儿童驱动主品牌增长，运营保持稳健水平 3Q24 主品牌整体稳健增长，主要受客流的影响，线下流水同比持平微增， 而线上和儿童业务分别同比实现高双位数增长/低双位数增长，为主品牌增 长的主要驱动力。此外，三季度主品牌营运情况良好，其零售折扣约 75 折， 库销比约 4 个月，环比 2Q24 保持平稳水平。展望四季度，受益于国庆假期 和换季需求，我们预计 10 月主品牌恢复较好的增长势头，考虑到大促活动 对四季度线上销售影响较大，我们建议关注"双十一"的品牌表现。 索康尼流水同比+50%，KP 剥离 ...