Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a projected revenue decline in Q2 and stable profit margins. However, there are positive signs in specific regions like India and strong growth for TUMI in Europe and China [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 7.3% year-on-year to $800 million, with a currency-neutral decline of 4.5%. The gross margin fell by 1 percentage point to 59.4%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 16%. Net profit dropped by 42.6% to $50 million, with a net profit margin of 6.1% [2]. - The company expects Q2 revenue to decline in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with profit levels remaining similar to Q1. The second half of the year is anticipated to have a lower base compared to the first half, but uncertainties remain high [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue changes by region in Q1 2025 were as follows: Asia -7%, North America -8%, Europe +4.4%, and Latin America 0%. North American revenue was impacted by early shipments, with a true decline of 5.2% when excluding this effect. China saw a 5% decline due to a high base, while India experienced a turnaround with a 2.6% increase [2]. - TUMI showed strong growth in Europe and China, with TUMI's revenue in China increasing by 10.9% due to new store openings. The company plans to open flagship stores in major cities [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a strong position as the world's largest luggage brand, with potential for long-term growth in the Asia-Pacific region. The dual listing overseas is expected to aid in valuation recovery. Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are $254 million and $289 million, respectively, with a PE valuation of 15X for 2025, translating to a target price of HKD 20.29 per share [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure in Q1 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a projected mid-single-digit decline in revenue and stable profit margins in Q2. However, revenue growth in India has turned positive, and TUMI is experiencing strong growth in Europe and China [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from $3,589 million in 2024 to $3,367 million in 2025, representing a -6% change. By 2026, revenue is expected to recover to $3,506 million, followed by $3,671 million in 2027 [9]. - Gross profit is forecasted to decrease from $2,152 million in 2024 to $2,003 million in 2025, with a slight recovery to $2,089 million in 2026 and $2,194 million in 2027 [9]. - Net profit is expected to drop significantly from $346 million in 2024 to $254 million in 2025, with a gradual increase to $289 million in 2026 and $345 million in 2027 [9]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, translating to a target price of HKD 20.29 per share based on a USD to HKD exchange rate of 7.8 [10]. Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue changes by region were as follows: Asia -7%, North America -8%, Europe +4.4%, and Latin America 0%. Notably, North America experienced a decline of -5.2% when excluding the impact of early shipments [10]. - TUMI's revenue in Europe and China showed resilience, with growth rates of 11.1% and 10.9% respectively, driven by new store openings [10]. Valuation and Comparison - The report includes a comparison of the company's valuation with peers, indicating a PE of 7.8 for the company in 2025, which is competitive compared to other luxury brands [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a decrease of 4.5% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - The adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - Despite the short-term performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its three premium brand assets and anticipates a successful listing in the US to enhance liquidity [5] Regional Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, revenue by region showed: - Asia: $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, with India showing a constant currency growth of 2.6% due to strategic adjustments, while South Korea and China experienced declines [2] - North America: $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a 5.2% decline after excluding the impact of wholesalers' early purchases in Q4 2024 [2] - Europe: $180 million, flat year-on-year, with a 4.4% increase on a constant currency basis, driven by increasing brand penetration [2] - Latin America: $50 million, down 10.3% year-on-year, flat on a constant currency basis [2] Brand Performance Summary - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025: - Samsonite: $410 million, down 7.4% year-on-year - TUMI: $190 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, showing relative resilience with constant currency growth in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [3] - American Tourister: $130 million, down 14.0% year-on-year [3] Channel Performance Summary - Revenue by channel in Q1 2025: - Wholesale: $490 million, down 8.9% year-on-year - DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) retail: $220 million, down 5.5% year-on-year - DTC e-commerce: $80 million, down 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The company opened 9 new stores (19 opened, 10 closed) to reach a total of 1,128 stores, demonstrating confidence in development despite weak retail conditions [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Q1 2025 gross margin was 59.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin Asia sales [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 6.1%, down 3.6 percentage points, reflecting performance pressure from macroeconomic fluctuations [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $350 million, and $400 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9, 8, and 7 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Samsonite in Q1 2025 has shown a significant decline, with revenue and net profit both decreasing, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects and market confidence [1][4][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Samsonite reported revenue of $800 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a gross profit of $473 million, down 8.9%. The net profit fell sharply by 39.7% to $55 million [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to the previous year, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was 16%, down 2.8 percentage points [8]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the Asian market was $307 million, representing 38.5% of total revenue, down 9.7% year-on-year. North American revenue was $262 million, accounting for 32.8% of total revenue, down 8.3% [5][7]. - In contrast, the European market showed resilience, with revenue remaining flat at $176 million, and a 4.4% increase when adjusted for constant currency [6][7]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the Q1 report, Samsonite's stock price dropped significantly, closing at HKD 14.06, down 8.58% on May 14, and further declining to HKD 13.96 the next day [3][4]. - Major investment banks have reacted by adjusting their target prices for Samsonite, with Citigroup lowering its target from HKD 26 to HKD 19.7, while UBS slightly raised its target from HKD 15 to HKD 16, indicating mixed market sentiment [9][10]. Strategic Outlook - The company is pursuing a dual listing in the US, which is seen as a potential opportunity for value re-evaluation. However, the recent financial performance raises questions about the feasibility of this strategy [10]. - To mitigate external challenges, Samsonite has reduced marketing expenditures by 20% year-on-year, reflecting a proactive approach to address declining consumer confidence and sales [8].

Group 1 - Samsonite's Q1 sales revenue decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, amounting to $797 million compared to $860 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The gross profit was $473 million with a gross margin of 59.4%, down from 60.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in sales from the higher-margin Asian market [1] - The decline in consumer confidence in the North American market and changes in wholesale channels also negatively impacted performance, despite some brand growth in the European market [1] Group 2 - Uniqlo is set to open its first city flagship store in Southwest China on May 16, covering nearly 2,000 square meters and featuring exclusive Chengdu-themed products [2] - This expansion reflects Uniqlo's continued optimism in the Chinese market and aims to enhance its brand influence in the Southwest region [2] - The opening of new stores is expected to intensify competition in the local apparel retail market, prompting other brands to improve their product and service quality [2] Group 3 - iQIYI has launched a revenue-sharing cooperation model for new theatrical films starting May 13, allowing films to be released on its platform within 90 days of their theatrical debut [3] - This model provides more monetization options for theatrical films, particularly benefiting mid-tier and lower-tier films, and is expected to encourage more creators to engage in film production [3] - The introduction of the revenue-sharing model is anticipated to enhance content quality and audience feedback, thereby increasing the market competitiveness of films [3] Group 4 - Tianyuan Pet announced plans to acquire 89.71% of Guangzhou Taotong Technology through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [4] - The acquisition is expected to enhance Tianyuan Pet's business scope and overall competitiveness, opening new pathways for performance growth [4] - The integration of the pet industry with e-commerce and marketing is likely to deepen, and this acquisition may trigger a wave of industry consolidation [4]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite, a leading luggage brand, is experiencing significant sales declines and a drop in stock price, raising concerns about its market position and brand perception among consumers [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Samsonite reported a sales revenue of nearly $800 million, a decrease of 7.3% compared to the same period in 2024, with net profit declining by over 40% [3]. - The stock price fell by nearly 10% on May 14, closing at HKD 14.060 per share, with a market capitalization dropping below HKD 20 billion [3]. Sales Channel Analysis - Sales through wholesale channels have decreased, while direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, including retail and e-commerce, also saw declines [5]. - The main brand Samsonite experienced a sales decline of 11.4% in Asia and 6.4% in North America, while TUMI and American Tourister brands also faced similar downturns in both regions [5]. Market Position and Competition - The luxury luggage market is witnessing a structural divide, with brands like Rimowa showing strong growth, contrasting with Samsonite's struggles [6]. - Rimowa, acquired by LVMH, has seen its sales increase nearly fourfold over the past five years, highlighting a successful high-end positioning strategy [6]. Brand Strategy and Consumer Perception - Samsonite's multi-brand strategy aims to cover various market segments, but this has led to challenges in maintaining brand value and customer experience [7]. - The emergence of lower-priced alternatives and "copycat" products has intensified competition, affecting Samsonite's brand perception among younger consumers [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Samsonite, but it indicates a challenging environment for revenue and profit performance [1][9]. Core Insights - In 1Q25, Samsonite's net sales decreased by 4.5% year-on-year to $797 million, primarily due to weak demand in North America and China, along with a high base from the previous year [2][9]. - The company aims to maintain gross margin levels despite a 100 basis points decline to 59.4% in 1Q25, attributed to changes in geographic sales mix [2][9]. - Adjusted EBITDA fell by 20.9% year-on-year, leading to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.8%, down 280 basis points [2][9]. - Adjusted net income decreased by 40.3% year-on-year, driven by lower EBITDA, increased depreciation, net interest expenses, and a higher effective tax rate [2][9]. - The company reported a negative adjusted free cash flow of $41 million in 1Q25, reversing from a positive position due to EBITDA decline and increased net working capital [2][9]. Regional Performance - Sales in Asia and North America were weak, with Asia's revenue down 7% and North America's down 8% [3][10]. - Europe showed strong growth with a 4.4% increase in net sales, supported by positive growth across all core brands [3][10]. - Latin America’s sales remained flat, with a notable decline in Mexico offset by strong growth in Chile [3][10]. Channel Performance - The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel accounted for 38.2% of revenue in 1Q25, with e-commerce contributing 10.6% and offline retail 27.5% [4][11]. - The offline retail business saw a decline of 2.6%, primarily due to reduced customer traffic, while wholesale business declined by 6.1% [4][11]. Tariff Policy and Mitigation Strategies - The U.S. tariff policy remains unclear, causing caution among consumers and wholesale customers [5][12]. - The company has reduced its sourcing from China to 14% and plans to further decrease this by year-end, employing various strategies to mitigate potential tariff impacts [5][12]. Future Guidance - Management expects 2Q25 net sales growth to be similar to 1Q25, with a mid-single-digit decline in net revenue on a constant currency basis [6][13]. - Long-term growth is anticipated to be supported by strong travel trends, despite short-term macroeconomic uncertainties affecting consumer demand [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for Samsonite, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [20]. Core Insights - Samsonite's 1Q25 revenue and profit performance were under pressure, with net sales declining 4.5% year-on-year to $797 million, primarily due to weak demand in North America and China, along with a high base from the previous year [2][9]. - The company aims to maintain gross margin levels despite challenges, with a gross margin of 59.4% in 1Q25, down 100 basis points year-on-year [2][9]. - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 20.9% year-on-year, reflecting negative leverage effects from lower gross margins and sales, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA rate of 18.8% [2][9]. - Adjusted net income fell by 40.3% year-on-year, driven by the decline in adjusted EBITDA, increased depreciation, net interest expense, and a higher effective tax rate [2][9]. - The company reported a negative adjusted free cash flow of $41 million in 1Q25, attributed to the decline in EBITDA and an increase in net working capital [2][9]. Revenue Performance by Region - Sales in Asia and North America were weak, with Asia revenue down 7% year-on-year, and North America revenue declining 8% [3][10]. - European sales continued to show strong growth, with a 4.4% year-on-year increase, supported by positive growth across all core brands [3][10]. - Latin America sales remained flat year-on-year, with a notable decline in Mexico due to lower consumer confidence [3][10]. Channel Performance - The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel performed well, accounting for 38.2% of revenue in 1Q25, with e-commerce contributing 10.6% and offline retail 27.5% [4][11]. - The offline retail business saw a decline of 2.6%, primarily due to reduced customer traffic, while wholesale business declined by 6.1% year-on-year [4][11]. Tariff Policy and Mitigation Strategies - The U.S. tariff policy remains unclear, causing caution among consumers and wholesale customers [5][12]. - The company has reduced its sourcing from China to 14% and plans to further decrease this by year-end, leveraging a diversified sourcing platform to mitigate potential tariff impacts [5][12]. Future Guidance - Management expects 2Q25 net sales growth to be similar to 1Q25, with net revenue guidance down mid-single digits on a constant currency basis [6][13]. - Long-term growth is anticipated to be supported by strong travel trends, despite short-term macroeconomic uncertainties affecting consumer demand [6][13].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised the target price for Samsonite (01910.HK) to HKD 16.3, despite the first-quarter profit margin falling short of expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was USD 128 million, which was below UBS's expectation of a 16% margin, primarily due to lower-than-expected profit margins [1] - UBS has slightly increased its revenue forecast for Samsonite by 1% to reflect better-than-expected sales trends in North America for the second quarter [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin forecast has been reduced by approximately 110 basis points due to more significant-than-expected operational deleveraging in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - UBS has lowered its earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 8%, 2%, and 2% respectively [1] - The weighted average cost of capital forecast has been revised down from 9.9% to 9.5%, leading to a 9% increase in the target price from HKD 15 to HKD 16.3 [1] Group 3: Valuation and Cash Flow - The current price reflects low earnings visibility, leading UBS to maintain a "neutral" rating [1] - Strong free cash flow generation may pave the way for a new round of share buybacks, which UBS believes could support the valuation [1]