Group 1: Industry Overview - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is significantly increasing electricity demand, with a projected 30.9% rise in electricity consumption from data services like big data, cloud storage, and AI in 2024 [1] - The consensus in the industry is that "the end of AI is computing power, and the end of computing power is electricity," highlighting the critical role of electricity in supporting AI operations [3] - A major restructuring in the electricity sector is anticipated in 2025, with historical trends indicating that the sector experiences significant trading activity from March to May each year [3] Group 2: Electricity Demand and Market Dynamics - As summer approaches, peak electricity demand is expected to rise, driven by both restructuring expectations and increasing demand [3] - The electricity sector is likely to see a new wave of market activity this summer due to these dual factors [3] Group 3: Potential Investment Opportunities - Yubang Electric, a national high-tech enterprise with nearly 30 years of experience in power intelligence, reported a 67.35% increase in revenue to 940 million yuan and a 195.77% increase in net profit to 110 million yuan in 2024 [5] - Shihang New Energy, which focuses on the research, production, and sales of new energy power equipment, is set to officially list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on April 2, 2025 [5] - Chengdi Xiangjiang is a leading company in the energy sector, known for setting four world records and participating in the national integrated computing power layout [5] Group 4: Specific Company Insights - China Power has announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in another company, with an asset valuation report already submitted [6] - The current stock price of China Power is just over 10 yuan, with a market capitalization in the tens of billions, indicating potential for growth if the merger is successful [6] - China Power's total asset value is approximately 340 billion yuan, suggesting significant potential if the merger and restructuring proceed [6]

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Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd. has applied for a patent for a system that evaluates the participation of flexible resources in the ancillary services market, addressing the need for real-time monitoring and assessment of market dynamics [1] - The patent application, titled "A System for Evaluating Ancillary Services Market Participation of Flexible Resources," was published under CN 119740782 A and was filed on November 2024 [1] - The system includes several modules: a market operation data collection module, a dynamic interaction analysis module, an adaptive analysis module, and an ancillary services optimization module, which collectively enhance the evaluation of market conditions following the participation of flexible resources [1] Group 2 - China Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 and is based in Beijing, focusing on research and experimental development [2] - The company has a registered capital of 335.2 million RMB and has made investments in 25 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, and holds 58 trademark records and 5,000 patent records [2] - Additionally, the company possesses 179 administrative licenses, indicating a robust operational framework and engagement in various sectors [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of HKD 2.98 and a fair value of HKD 3.83 [7]. Core Views - The company's annual performance shows continuous improvement, with a special dividend yielding over 7%. In 2024, the company achieved a main revenue of RMB 54.213 billion (up 22.5% YoY) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.862 billion (up 25.2% YoY) [7][9]. - The company added 6GW of green electricity, with clean energy accounting for 80% of its installed capacity. The total electricity sold reached 1,280 billion kWh (up 23.9% YoY) [7][9]. - The report highlights the integration progress of hydropower platforms and anticipates both profit and dividend increases [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery Across Segments - The company reported a 25% YoY increase in overall performance, with a main revenue of RMB 54.213 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.862 billion [13][14]. - The revenue from various segments includes: thermal power (RMB 24.269 billion, +1.4%), hydropower (RMB 4.806 billion, +57.4%), wind power (RMB 11.737 billion, +34.6%), and solar power (RMB 9.492 billion, +57.9%) [17]. 2. New Clean Energy Installations - By the end of 2024, the company’s installed capacity reached 49.39GW, with clean energy installations increasing to 80.1%, up 4.7 percentage points YoY [39][41]. 3. Hydropower Platform Integration and Special Dividends - The company is accelerating capital operations, planning to inject hydropower assets into a new platform, which is expected to enhance shareholder value. The dividend payout ratio is projected to reach 68%, with a total cash dividend of RMB 2 billion [56][62]. 4. Asset Optimization and Stable Profitability - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 44.26 billion, RMB 50.49 billion, and RMB 56.03 billion for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.69, 6.74, and 6.08 [66].

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 3.00 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 4.27/2.81 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 68.42 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 中国电力(02380.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——拟派息 60% 股息率具吸引力 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsip ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 3.00 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 4.27/2.81 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 68.42 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 中国电力(02380.HK) 投资评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.72, reflecting a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 2.94 [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 53% increase in net profit for the year 2024, despite a downward adjustment in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 9.5% and 22.2% respectively due to lower-than-expected wind and solar generation [2][5]. - The dividend yield for 2024 and 2025 is projected to exceed 7%, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite the earnings adjustments [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 49,191 million, a decrease of 3.8% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be RMB 50,997 million, down 9.1% [4][16]. - Operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 12,438 million, reflecting a 6.4% decrease, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 14,012 million, down 16.3% [4][16]. - Net profit for 2024 is revised to RMB 4,072 million, a 9.5% reduction, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 4,857 million, down 22.2% [4][16]. Generation Capacity and Production Forecast - The company anticipates an 18.6% year-on-year increase in power generation for 2024, with hydropower generation significantly recovering by 52% [5][6]. - For 2025, the company expects a 3% decrease in unit fuel costs, but a 7% decline in the ignition price difference for thermal power due to changes in long-term electricity prices [5][6]. Valuation Summary - The target price of HKD 3.72 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with contributions from various segments: thermal power at RMB 8,980 million, hydropower at RMB 7,787 million, wind power at RMB 24,997 million, and solar power at RMB 19,776 million [10][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.72, reflecting a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 2.94 [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 53% increase in profit for the full year 2024, despite a slight reduction in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 due to lower-than-expected wind and solar power generation [2][5]. - The dividend yield for 2024/25 is projected to exceed 7%, making it an attractive investment despite the downward revision in profit forecasts [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 49,191 million, a decrease of 3.8% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be RMB 50,997 million, down 9.1% [4][16]. - Operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 12,438 million, down 6.4%, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 14,012 million, a reduction of 16.3% [4][16]. - Net profit for 2024 is revised to RMB 4,072 million, a decrease of 9.5%, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 4,857 million, down 22.2% [4][16]. Power Generation Capacity and Sales - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 31,599 MW in 2022 to 65,759 MW by 2026, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [6]. - The company's electricity sales are expected to rise from 108,171 GWh in 2022 to 146,986 GWh by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the total value at RMB 42,632 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 3.72 [10]. - The valuation for different segments includes coal power at 0.70x 2025E P/B, hydropower at 0.75x, wind power at 8.5x P/E, and solar power also at 8.5x P/E [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price of HKD 3.92 [1] Core Views - China Power is a comprehensive clean energy platform under the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) with a TTM dividend yield of 6.42% and a PB (MRQ) of 0.64x, indicating significant valuation appeal [1] - The company plans to use its 63% stake in Wuling Power and 64.93% stake in Changzhou Hydropower as consideration to subscribe for new shares in Yuanda Environmental, which is expected to reduce the debt-to-asset ratio and potentially enhance valuation through A-share hydropower assets [1][3] - In 1H24, China Power's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53% YoY to RMB 2.57 billion, driven by strong performance in clean energy [1] Operational Performance - In 3Q24, coal-fired power sales increased by 4.6% YoY to 15.7 billion kWh, accelerating from 0.4% growth in 1H24, due to increased coal power output during peak summer demand [2] - Wind and solar power sales in October 2024 grew by 39.9% and 12.8% YoY, respectively, though the growth rate slowed compared to the 59.4% and 90.8% increases in 1-9M24, primarily due to a high base effect from the 7.5GW clean energy assets injected in October 2023 [2] Strategic Initiatives - The proposed red-chip control of A-share hydropower platform Yuanda Environmental is expected to accelerate China Power's energy transition goals and facilitate the injection of high-quality projects from SPIC [3] - Despite market concerns over the dilution of China Power's stake in hydropower assets, the company anticipates faster growth in asset and profit scale post-restructuring [3] Financial Forecasts - The report revises down China Power's new clean energy capacity additions by 33%, 9%, and 0% for 2024-2026, and adjusts wind and solar power tariffs, leading to a reduction in net profit attributable to shareholders by 2%, 8%, and 14% to RMB 5.0 billion, RMB 5.6 billion, and RMB 6.2 billion, respectively [4] - Based on 2025E forecasts, the target market capitalization is RMB 44.8 billion (HKD 48.5 billion), with a target price of HKD 3.92, derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for China Power, including PE, PB, and EV/EBITDA ratios, with 2025E PE/PB for new energy, thermal power, and hydropower at 10x, 0.5x, and 1.2x, respectively [4][6] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 9.00% in 2024E to 10.05% in 2026E, reflecting stronger profitability [6] Industry Comparison - Comparable company valuations for thermal power, hydropower, and new energy sectors are provided, with average 2025E PB ratios of 0.80x, 2.6x, and 6x, respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a restructuring of its hydropower assets, positioning itself as a flagship in clean energy [2]. - The total electricity sales volume for the first ten months of the year reached 108,220,668 MWh, representing a significant increase of 30.56% year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to sell its hydropower assets (5.9 GW) to its parent company's subsidiary, Yuanda Environmental Protection, in exchange for newly issued shares, which will enhance its position in the clean energy sector [2]. - The company aims to integrate approximately 20 GW of remaining hydropower assets into Yuanda Environmental Protection over the next three years [2]. - The company has accelerated the construction of wind and solar projects, with a total of 3.3 GW of new clean energy capacity added in the first half of the year [2]. - The company targets a clean energy installed capacity ratio of 90% by 2025, with expected new installations of about 7 GW for the year [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company reported a year-on-year increase in wind power sales volume of 57.05% and solar power sales volume of 79.55% [2]. - Hydropower sales volume increased by 62.62% due to improved water conditions in the first half of the year [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 44,262 million in 2023 to 50,228 million in 2024, representing a 13.5% increase [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 2,660 million in 2023 to 5,109 million in 2024, indicating a 92.1% growth [4]. - The company expects to achieve a basic earnings per share of 0.41 in 2024, up from 0.22 in 2023 [4]. Asset Management - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 305,807 million in 2023 to 329,340 million in 2024 [4]. - The debt ratio is expected to increase from 68.9% in 2023 to 70.7% in 2024, indicating a rising leverage [4]. Market Position - The company aims to solidify its status as a comprehensive clean energy flagship platform, leveraging its control over Yuanda Environmental Protection [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 4.73 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 52% from the current price of 3.11 HKD [2].