Financial Performance - Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a revenue of HK$1.2 billion for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%[2]. - The company achieved a net profit of HK$300 million, which is a 20% increase compared to the previous year[2]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 6,073,644, an increase from RMB 5,985,850 in 2023, representing a growth of 1.5%[27]. - Profit for the year was RMB 44,800, down from RMB 479,998 in 2023, indicating a decrease of 90.6%[27]. - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 104,787, compared to RMB 504,335 in 2023, a decrease of 79.2%[27]. - Profit before taxation decreased to RMB 74,008 in 2024 from RMB 636,384 in 2023, reflecting a decline of 88.4%[27]. - Core operating profit fell to RMB 252,272 in 2024 from RMB 632,077 in 2023, a drop of 60.1%[27]. - Store level operating profit for 2024 was RMB 748,320, a decline from RMB 1,076,967 in 2023, representing a decrease of 30.4%[27]. - The Group recorded a profit from equity investments at fair value through other comprehensive income of RMB 14.8 million for 2024, compared to a loss of RMB 8.9 million in 2023[141]. - Profit for the year plummeted by 90.7% from RMB 480.0 million in 2023 to RMB 44.8 million in 2024[140]. Customer and Market Growth - User data indicates that the number of active customers grew by 25% to 1.5 million in 2024[2]. - The company expects revenue growth to continue at a rate of 10-15% for the next fiscal year, driven by new product launches and market expansion[2]. - Jiumaojiu plans to introduce three new restaurant concepts in 2025, targeting a 30% increase in customer footfall[2]. - Market expansion efforts include opening 20 new locations across China in the next year, aiming for a 50% increase in market presence[2]. - The Group operates Tai Er restaurants in multiple countries including Singapore, Malaysia, Canada, the United States, Thailand, and Indonesia, with plans for further expansion in regions with significant Chinese populations[83]. Operational Challenges - The company reported a significant decline in profitability metrics, indicating challenges in operational efficiency and market conditions[27]. - Same store sales for Tai Er (self-operated) decreased by 18.8% to RMB 3,308,988 in 2024, while Song Hot Pot saw a decline of 31.6% to RMB 348,447[40]. - The Group's restaurant performance declined in 2024 due to external environmental changes and intensified competition in the catering market[64]. - The average spending per customer in 2024 decreased for most brands, with Tai Er at RMB 71 (down from RMB 75), Song Hot Pot at RMB 103 (down from RMB 113), and Jiu Mao Jiu at RMB 55 (down from RMB 58)[62]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing HK$100 million in technology upgrades to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency[2]. - The company is exploring potential acquisitions to diversify its portfolio and strengthen its market position[2]. - The company has implemented a new marketing strategy focusing on digital channels, which is expected to increase brand awareness by 40%[2]. - Ongoing research and development efforts are aimed at introducing new products and technologies to strengthen market position[27]. - The Group is focusing on optimizing product offerings and enhancing customer experience to strengthen brand competitiveness[77]. Financial Position and Ratios - Total assets decreased from RMB 6,520.9 million in 2023 to RMB 6,488.6 million in 2024, while total liabilities increased from RMB 3,163.9 million to RMB 3,337.5 million[170]. - The liabilities-to-assets ratio increased from 48.5% in 2023 to 51.4% in 2024, indicating a higher financial leverage[170]. - The current ratio decreased from 2.00 in 2023 to 1.45 in 2024, suggesting a decline in short-term financial health[171]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 54.3% from RMB 1,326.9 million as of December 31, 2023 to RMB 607.0 million as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to dividends paid and purchases of non-current financial assets[177][180]. - The gearing ratio increased from 7.3% as of December 31, 2023 to 12.0% as of December 31, 2024, mainly due to an increase in bank loans and a decrease in total equity from dividend payments[178][181]. Employee and Staff Costs - Staff costs increased by 13.1% from RMB 1,544.1 million in 2023 to RMB 1,747.0 million in 2024, with its percentage of revenue increasing from 25.8% to 28.8%[112]. - As of December 31, 2024, the Group had a total of 20,735 employees, including outsourced personnel[199]. Future Outlook - The management remains optimistic about the overall market conditions and consumer spending trends in the upcoming quarters[2]. - Future outlook includes potential strategies for market expansion and product innovation to recover from the current downturn[27]. - The Group plans to adopt a more prudent restaurant opening strategy in 2025, with no specific target for new openings to ensure a 100% success rate for each restaurant[74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.807 million yuan, a significant decline of 87.69%. The core operating profit was 252 million yuan, down 60.09% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is set to enhance its supply chain capabilities with the expected launch of the Nansha supply chain center in Guangzhou in 2025, which is anticipated to lower costs related to raw materials. Additionally, the establishment of supermarket sales and online retail businesses in 2024 is expected to broaden external market opportunities [2][9]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.45 billion, 7.086 billion, and 7.825 billion yuan, with net profits of 194 million, 301 million, and 334 million yuan respectively [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.074 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.807 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 87.69%. The core operating profit was 252 million yuan, down 60.09% year-on-year [2][6]. Operational Insights - The company faced challenges in restaurant performance, leading to a cautious approach in asset impairment provisions. The impairment losses for properties, plants, and equipment increased by 411.9% year-on-year, reaching 112 million yuan [6][9]. - In Q1 2025, the average daily sales for the main brands showed a slight increase compared to Q4 2024, with stable per-customer spending for two consecutive quarters [6][9]. Brand and Store Adjustments - In 2024, the company opened 150 new restaurants while closing 69, resulting in a total of 807 restaurants by the end of the year. The new brand "Shanwaimian" showed promising potential with a table turnover rate of 4.3 times per day and an average spending of 87 yuan [9][9]. - The company continued to adjust its brand matrix, with a reduction in the number of stores to 780 in Q1 2025, primarily due to closures in the "Tai Er" brand [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure due to external environmental factors, with a cautious expansion strategy focusing on new stores and menu adjustments [2][3] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, a significant decrease of 87.7% [1][3] - The company plans to optimize its brand portfolio and enhance supply chain capabilities, with new store openings and menu innovations expected to drive future growth [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a core operating profit of 252 million yuan, down 60.1% year-on-year [1] - For the second half of 2024, the company recorded a net profit of -16 million yuan, compared to 231 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The revenue breakdown by brand for 2024 shows that Taier, Jiumaojiu, Song Hotpot, and other brands generated revenues of 4.413 billion, 546 million, 895 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.2%, +11.0%, and +201.4% [1] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 150 new stores in 2024, including 95 Taier stores and 28 Song Hotpot stores, while closing 69 stores [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total number of Taier stores reached 634, with a year-on-year increase of 56 stores [2] - The same-store sales for Taier decreased by 18.8% in 2024, while Song Hotpot saw a decline of 31.6% [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.761 billion, 7.878 billion, and 9.292 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 99 million, 263 million, and 411 million yuan [9] - The company is expected to maintain a cautious approach to expansion while optimizing existing stores and menu offerings [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure due to external environmental factors, with a cautious expansion strategy focusing on new stores and menu adjustments [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 6.074 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 87.7% to 56 million yuan [1][3] - The company is optimizing its brand portfolio and enhancing supply chain capabilities, with new store formats and menu updates expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 60.74 billion yuan, with a core operating profit of 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 60.1% [1] - In the second half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -16 million yuan, compared to 231 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The company plans to achieve revenues of 67.61 billion yuan, 78.78 billion yuan, and 92.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 99 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 411 million yuan [8][9] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 150 new stores in 2024, including 95 for the Taier brand and 28 for the Song Hotpot brand, while closing 69 stores [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total number of Taier stores reached 634, with a same-store sales decline of 18.8% [2] - The company is enhancing its supply chain capabilities with a new center expected to be operational by 2025, which will support core brand ingredient processing and sales [8]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant chain Jiumaojiu reported a slight revenue increase of 1.5% to 6.074 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, but its net profit plummeted by 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan, indicating significant operational challenges and declining consumer interest [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - Net profit fell sharply by 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan [1] - The company proposed a dividend payout of 0.02 HKD per share, totaling approximately 51.62 million yuan, a decrease of 74.6% from over 200 million yuan in 2023 [1] Operational Challenges - The total number of restaurants increased by 81, but the main brand Jiumaojiu saw a net decrease of 6 locations [1] - Same-store sales for Jiumaojiu and Taier dropped by 13.0% and 18.8%, respectively, with the latter's sales falling from 5.09 billion yuan to 3.48 billion yuan, a decline of over 31% [5] - The average consumer spending for Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot decreased by 5.2%, 5.3%, and 8.8%, respectively, reaching levels comparable to those during the pandemic [2][5] Market Competition - The domestic restaurant industry saw a revenue growth of 5.3% in 2024, down from over 20% in 2023, indicating increased competition with 3.574 million new restaurant registrations [2] - The turnover rates for Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot decreased by 5.6%, 16.7%, and 28.6%, respectively, reflecting a decline in customer traffic [3] Strategic Initiatives - Jiumaojiu has opened up franchise opportunities for the Taier brand and is focusing on expanding the new brand "Shanwaimian" through a franchise model [8][10] - The company is attempting to upgrade its existing brands by introducing fresh ingredients and new menu items to counteract the negative perception of pre-prepared dishes [6] International Expansion - Jiumaojiu's international expansion has been slow, with only 30 overseas locations established since 2021, primarily in Southeast Asia and North America [11] - The average turnover rate for overseas restaurants has decreased from 4.4 times to 4.2 times per day, indicating challenges in adapting to local markets [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, although the overall performance remains under pressure due to external conditions [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1, 2.6, and 2.6 times per day for Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiu Mao Jiu respectively, showing year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but the decline showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - Average customer spending was RMB 72, RMB 100, and RMB 56 for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [3][8]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8]. Customer Experience Initiatives - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new products and a "Heartfelt Service Plan." In March 2025, a new "Fresh" store model was introduced to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, enhancing customer loyalty through promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be RMB 0.1, RMB 0.15, and RMB 0.24 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25.4, 16.7, and 10.1 [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, with the main brands experiencing marginal increases in table turnover rates compared to the previous quarter, although year-on-year comparisons remain negative [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the table turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1 for Tai Er, 2.6 for Song Hotpot, and 2.6 for Jiu Mao Jiu, reflecting year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day respectively. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - The average customer spending per visit was 72, 100, and 56 yuan for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [8][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8][3]. Customer Experience Focus - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new initiatives and a "Fresh" store model in March 2025 to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, aiming to increase customer loyalty through various promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.1, 0.15, and 0.24 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2026 [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating on Jiumaojiu (09922) with a 12-month target price of HKD 3.3, based on an expected EV/EBITDA ratio of 8 times for 2025 [1] Sales Performance - Same-store sales decline has narrowed due to a lower base, but short-term pressures remain; Jiumaojiu's same-store sales declined by 18.6% year-on-year, while Taier and Song Hotpot saw declines of 21.2% and 24.2% respectively [2] - Taier's recovery is approximately 60% of pre-pandemic levels, while Jiumaojiu's recovery has decreased from 62% to 60% [2][7] Store Network - Taier closed 24 stores in Q1 2025, aligning with management's plan to close about 10% of stores in the first half of 2025; Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu's store networks remained stable compared to Q4 2024 [2] Average Table Turnover Rate - Taier's average table turnover rate was 3.1 times in Q1 2025, slightly up from 3.0 times in Q4 2024; Song Hotpot's turnover rate was 2.6 times, down from 2.7 times [3][5] Average Selling Price (ASP) - Taier's ASP remained stable at 72 CNY in Q1 2025; Song Hotpot's ASP increased to 100 CNY from 99 CNY in 2024, while Jiumaojiu's ASP rose to 56 CNY from 54 CNY [3][6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry is undergoing a significant transformation from aggressive expansion to strategic contraction, with companies like Jiumaojiu facing severe operational challenges due to market saturation and internal mismanagement [1][3][18]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a decline in restaurant numbers for two consecutive quarters, with significant drops in table turnover rates and same-store daily sales [1][3]. - The revenue for Jiumaojiu decreased from RMB 628.372 million in 2023 to RMB 545.507 million in 2024, indicating a downward trend in financial performance [4]. - The brand "Tai Er Suan Cai Yu" experienced a drop in table turnover rate from 4.0 to 3.1, reflecting a decline in customer traffic [4][12]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Jiumaojiu has initiated a strategic contraction by ceasing operations of its sub-brands and closing underperforming stores, which has negatively impacted overall revenue [3][6]. - The company has acknowledged the need to adjust its store opening strategy based on market conditions, indicating a shift from aggressive expansion to a more cautious approach [14]. - The competitive landscape has forced Jiumaojiu to attempt price reductions to attract customers, but this strategy has not effectively countered the decline in customer interest [6][17]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The restaurant industry is witnessing a divide where leading brands like Haidilao maintain stability through operational efficiency, while others like Jiumaojiu and Xiaobai are forced to shrink due to competitive pressures [16][18]. - The overall market for hot pot and similar dining experiences is becoming increasingly saturated, leading to a decline in price advantages for mid-range brands [1][18]. - The shift from scale competition to efficiency competition highlights the necessity for brands to enhance operational effectiveness to survive in a challenging market environment [18].

Core Insights - The total number of restaurants under the brand classification reached 780 as of March 31, 2025 [1] - The main brands include 610 self-operated and franchised stores of Tai Er, 81 stores of Song Hot Pot, 69 stores of Jiu Mao Jiu, 1 store of Lai Mei Li, 1 store of Shang Xian Yue Mu, and 18 stores of Shan De Shan Wai Mian [1] Brand Performance - The table turnover rates for the main brands are as follows: Tai Er at 3.1, Song Hot Pot at 2.6, and Jiu Mao Jiu at 2.6 [1] - Average customer spending per brand is: Tai Er at 72 yuan, Song Hot Pot at 100 yuan, and Jiu Mao Jiu at 56 yuan [1] Same-store Sales Performance - Year-on-year changes in daily average sales for the main brands are: Tai Er at -21.2%, Song Hot Pot at -24.2%, and Jiu Mao Jiu at -18.6% [1]