Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.61, based on a 15x PE for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has issued a mid-year earnings forecast indicating performance below expectations, with projected revenue of CNY 3.064 billion (+6.4%) and a net profit of no less than CNY 67 million (-69.8%) for H1 2024. This decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year, changes in consumer habits due to external factors, and delayed cost control measures leading to negative operating leverage [1]. - The company is strengthening its partnership with Meituan by opening satellite stores, with plans to establish 50 new brand satellite stores in 2024. Meituan will provide commission rebates and operational support for these new stores [1]. - The company is introducing lower-priced menu items to attract a diverse customer base, significantly reducing prices for its signature dishes and rice to enhance value perception among consumers [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 6.065 billion, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The operating profit is expected to be CNY 429 million, reflecting a decline of 45.4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at CNY 220 million, down 51.6% [3][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at CNY 0.16, with subsequent projections of CNY 0.23 in 2025 and CNY 0.28 in 2026 [2][3]. - The gross margin is expected to be 62.5% in 2024, with a net margin of 3.6% [3][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.064 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 72 million yuan, a decrease of 67.5% year-on-year [3] - The company is facing pressure on profit margins due to weak demand, with a net profit margin of 2.4% for H1 2024, down 5.36 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is adjusting its expansion strategy, lowering its store opening targets due to the complex external environment [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 6,357 in 2024E, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 180 million yuan in 2024E, reflecting a significant decrease of 60.4% year-on-year [2] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.13 yuan per share for 2024E, with a P/E ratio of 18 [2] Brand Performance - The brand "Tai Er" achieved a revenue of 2.248 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a store operating profit margin of 13.8%, down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - "Song Hot Pot" reported a revenue of 431 million yuan in H1 2024, with a store operating profit margin of 8.6%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company has seen a decrease in customer traffic and profitability across its brands due to external demand weakness [4] Store Expansion Strategy - The company has revised its store opening targets for the year, with "Tai Er" planning to open 80 new stores in mainland China, down from the original target of 80-100 [4] - "Song Hot Pot" plans to open 25 new stores, reduced from 35-40 [4] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 180 million, 231 million, and 302 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to ongoing operational pressures [5] - The dynamic P/E ratios for the company are projected to be 18, 14, and 11 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Jiujiu (9922 HK) to "Overweight" from a previous higher rating, reflecting the company's short-term performance pressure but acknowledging its potential for stable growth post-adjustments [5] Core Views - Jiujiu's H1 2024 performance was under pressure, with revenue increasing by 6 4% YoY to RMB 3 064 billion, but net profit attributable to shareholders plummeting by 67 5% YoY to RMB 72 291 million [3] - The company faced challenges with declining demand, leading to both volume and price drops across its major brands, including Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiujiu [3] - Jiujiu has adjusted its full-year store opening guidance downward due to weak consumer demand and intensified industry competition, with Tai Er and Song Hotpot reducing their expansion plans [4] Performance by Brand Tai Er - H1 2024 revenue increased by 2 7% YoY to RMB 2 248 billion, but same-store sales declined by 15 5% YoY [3] - The brand added 36 new stores, bringing the total to 614 nationwide, but saw a decline in key metrics such as seat turnover rate (down to 2 7 times/day from 3 1 times/day in H1 2023) and table turnover rate (down to 3 8 times/day from 4 3 times/day) [3] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 4 to RMB 71, reflecting menu and pricing adjustments [3] Song Hotpot - H1 2024 revenue grew by 22 5% YoY to RMB 431 million, but same-store sales dropped sharply by 34 7% YoY [3] - The brand added 11 new stores, but experienced declines in seat turnover rate (down to 2 0 times/day from 2 8 times/day) and table turnover rate (down to 2 9 times/day from 3 9 times/day) [3] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 11 to RMB 110 [3] Jiujiu - H1 2024 revenue decreased by 8 1% YoY to RMB 292 million, with same-store sales down by 8 5% YoY [3] - The brand closed 5 stores during the period, but saw a slight improvement in seat turnover rate (up to 1 8 times/day from 1 7 times/day) [3] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 3 to RMB 56 [3] Cost Structure - Employee costs as a percentage of revenue increased significantly by 4 3 percentage points YoY to 29 2% in H1 2024, driven by store network expansion and preparations for a new central kitchen [4] - Raw material costs as a percentage of revenue decreased slightly by 0 4 percentage points to 35 8%, benefiting from reduced procurement costs [4] - The company's net profit margin dropped by 5 4 percentage points YoY to 2 4% in H1 2024 [4] Strategic Adjustments - Jiujiu has opened up franchising for Tai Er and its new brand Shan Waimian to accelerate regional and international expansion [4] - The company is focusing on product quality improvement, menu diversification, and promotional activities to attract customers and increase repeat purchases [4] - Song Hotpot has simplified its brand positioning and is focusing on the Guangdong market, while planning to close some underperforming stores in other regions [4] Financial Forecasts - The report significantly lowers Jiujiu's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with 2024 estimates reduced by 68% to RMB 210 million [5] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 15x, 10x, and 8x respectively, reflecting the current valuation levels [5]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 九毛九 （9922.HK） 九毛九（9922.HK）：短期翻台率难见起 色，门店扩张恐受限，下调至"持有" 公司 1H24 各个主品牌的线下客流都面临较大的压力，翻台率大幅下滑。 客单价下降与翻台率下滑带来显著的经营负杠杆，导致门店经营利润率 恶化。管理层决定采取更审慎的开店策略，并下调 2024 年的开店指引。 我们预计 2H24 翻台率仍将持续承压，且不排除公司进一步下修开店指 引，甚至较大规模关店的可能。基于宏观经济及餐饮行业短期较大的不 确定性，我们抱着谨慎的态度下调九毛九至"持有"评级，并下调目标 价至 2.81 港元。 主要品牌翻台率预计持续承压：我们此前预计公司 1H24 主动下调 太二与怂火锅的客单价有望吸引更多客流，从而抵御餐饮行业需求 下滑的影响。然而，太二及怂火锅 1H24 的翻台率同比皆录得大幅下 降，且 2Q24 低于 1Q24。管理层表示 7-8 月暑期旺季的客流依然较 弱，预计 3Q24 的同店销售下降幅度与 2Q24 相近，但 4Q24 有望在 低基数下边际改善。公司 2H24 将减小折扣力度，更聚焦产品的质 量，希望通 ...

27 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) Transforming despite tough macro backdrop HOLD (Maintain) The 1H24 results were inline but the underlying was slightly positive (e.g. resilient GP margin, as well as the restaurant-level OP margin). We agree that both Tai Er and Song are making loads of efforts to transform, but under such a tough industry and macro environment, we would not be able to turn positive, unless we can really see a compelling impr ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited 九毛九國際控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：9922） 截至2024年6月30日止六個月的中期業績公告 九毛九國際控股有限公司（「本公司」）董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）欣然公佈本公 司及其附屬公司（統稱「本集團」）截至2024年6月30日止六個月的未經審核綜合業 績，連同截至2023年6月30日止六個月的比較數字。 主要財務亮點 截至6月30日止六個月 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------| | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | | | 人民幣千元 （未經審核） | 人民幣千元 （ ...

2024 年 7 月 30 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 评级更新报告 九毛九国际 (9922 HK, 持有, 目标价: HK$2.70) 主要调整 现值 原值 变动 评级 持有 买入 ↓ 目标价 (HK$) 2.70 6.10 -56% 2024E EPS (RMB) 0.17 0.37 -54% 2025E EPS (RMB) 0.25 0.42 -40% 2026E EPS (RMB) 0.30 0.48 -37% 股价表现 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------| | 股价上行/下行空间 | +2% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 15.78/2.61 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 482 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 1,414 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) | 8 | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | GYH J Limited | 38 | | 按 2024 年 7 月 29 日收市数据 | | 资料来源: FactSet Jul ...

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Industry or Company Involved - The discussion pertains to the impact of quantitative easing (QE) on various brands within the industry Core Points and Arguments - There has been a noticeable decline in daily sales statistics across various brands, which can be attributed to the effects of QE [1] - The decline in sales has been felt since the beginning of the year, indicating a longer-term trend rather than a short-term fluctuation [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of QE suggests a broader economic context that may influence consumer behavior and spending patterns, which could have implications for future sales and market strategies [1]

22 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) We see risks in 2H24E after the miss in 2Q24 HOLD (Down) Jiumaojiu issued a profit warning for 1H24, which is still awful compared to our already negative outlook. With risks to linger in the near future (SSSG drop may sustain and store expansion may also slow down, etc.), plus the fairly high valuation (23x FY24E P/E), we now cut our FY24E-26E net profit forecasts by 69%-57% and downgrade the stock to HOLD. ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the stock rating to "Hold" from "Buy" due to a challenging outlook for the second half of 2024 and high valuation concerns [2]. Core Views - The company has issued a profit warning for the first half of 2024, with expected net profit of approximately 67 million RMB, a 70% decline year-on-year [2]. - The same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the second quarter of 2024 has worsened, with declines of 18% for Tai Er, 37% for Song, and 13% for JMJ, compared to previous quarter declines [2]. - The report anticipates continued risks in the near future, including potential slowdowns in store expansion and ongoing declines in same-store sales [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24E is projected at 7,128 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [3]. - Net profit for FY24E is expected to be 209.9 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 56.9% compared to FY23A [3]. - The report revises net profit estimates for FY24E to FY26E down by 69% to 57% [2][4]. Revenue Adjustments - The revenue forecast for FY24E has been adjusted down by 13.5% compared to previous estimates, with a new projection of 7,128 million RMB [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY24E is expected to be 63.3%, slightly lower than previous estimates [4]. Market Valuation - The target price is set at 3.59 HKD, down from a previous target of 8.39 HKD, reflecting a 5.3% potential upside from the current price of 3.41 HKD [2]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 23 times FY24E earnings, which is considered high given the expected sales growth of 6% and a significant decline in net profit [2][6]. Operational Insights - The company plans to implement new business models, including franchising and satellite stores, to improve performance [2]. - Management is focusing on menu improvements, pricing strategies, and employee incentive programs to enhance operational efficiency [2].