智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，尽管2026年预期加工费(TC/RC)走低，但考量硫酸价格上涨，预 期江西铜业股份(00358)的铜冶炼业务仍能维持盈利。若收购SolGold交易顺利完成，预计将自2028年起 推动长期盈利增长。该行将江西铜业H股目标价由39.8港元上调至54.1港元，按现金流折现率及公平市 账率作估值，维持"买入"评级。 ...

花旗发布研报称，尽管2026年预期加工费(TC/RC)走低，但考量硫酸价格上涨，预期江西铜业 （600362）股份(00358)的铜冶炼业务仍能维持盈利。若收购SolGold交易顺利完成，预计将自2028年起 推动长期盈利增长。该行将江西铜业H股目标价由39.8港元上调至54.1港元，按现金流折现率及公平市 账率作估值，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Summary of Jiangxi Copper Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK/600362.SS) - **Industry**: Copper production, including mining, smelting, refining, and processing of copper products such as copper cathode, wire, and rod, along with by-products like gold, silver, and sulfuric acid [28][32] Key Points and Arguments Target Price and Valuation - **Revised Target Prices**: - H-share target price raised to HK$54.1 from HK$39.8 - A-share target price raised to Rmb64.8 from Rmb47.9 [1][4] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Current stock prices imply 2026E P/Es of 10.0x for H-shares and 14.0x for A-shares, compared to historical averages of 13.7x and 23.5x respectively [5] - **DCF and P/B Valuation**: - DCF valuation yields an NPV-per-share of HK$53.2 for H-shares and Rmb47.9 for A-shares [4][30] Earnings Forecasts - **Earnings Revisions**: - 2025E net profit forecast increased by 2% to Rmb8.4 billion - 2026E net profit forecast increased by 19% to Rmb14.0 billion - 2027E net profit forecast increased by 14% to Rmb13.2 billion [3][9] - **Comparison to Consensus**: - 2025/26/27E earnings forecasts are 2%/30%/19% higher than Bloomberg consensus [3] Sensitivity Analysis - **Metal and Sulfuric Acid Price Sensitivity**: - A 10% increase in copper price (US$13,000/t) would increase 2026E net profit by 8% - A 10% increase in gold price (US$4,600/oz) would increase 2026E net profit by 3% - A 10% increase in sulfuric acid price (Rmb900/t) would increase 2026E net profit by 3% [2][10] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Slower grid investment in China or a significant drop in property demand could weaken copper prices - Lower than expected sulfuric acid prices - Rising mining or smelting costs [31][36] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: - Jiangxi Copper H-shares and A-shares rated as Buy - Long-term bullish view on copper prices remains intact, with expectations of benefiting from increasing copper prices [29][33] Additional Important Information - **Market Context**: - The copper smelting business is expected to remain profitable despite lower TC/RC prices due to rising sulfuric acid prices [1] - **Acquisition Potential**: - Ongoing acquisition of Solgold could contribute to long-term profit growth from 2028E [1] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Jiangxi Copper, focusing on its financial outlook, valuation, and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The gold resource sector is experiencing significant developments, including company restructuring, policy support, performance growth, and overseas expansion [2]. Company Restructuring - Hunan Gold (002155) will be suspended from trading starting January 12, 2026, to plan a share issuance for acquiring 100% stakes in Tianyue Mining and Zhongnan Smelting, aiming to integrate gold resources and smelting capacity. This restructuring coincides with international gold prices surpassing $4,600 per ounce, seen as a key move for resource expansion [3]. Industry Policy and Environment - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, 2025, simplifies the process of converting exploration rights to mining rights, providing a "fast track" for gold mining companies and reducing regulatory uncertainty. Additionally, a joint implementation plan for high-quality development in the gold industry focuses on deep mining technology and green mine construction, offering policy support for the sector [4]. Performance and Operating Conditions - In 2025, international gold prices increased by over 70%, leading to significant profit growth for several gold companies. For instance, Shandong Gold (600547) reported a 102.98% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, while Western Gold (601069) saw a 131.94% increase, primarily benefiting from rising gold prices and production boosts. Zijin Mining (601899) expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [5]. Company Project Advancements - Companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Jiangxi Copper (600362) are accelerating overseas gold mine acquisitions. Zijin Mining has completed acquisitions of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok project in Kazakhstan, while Luoyang Molybdenum is set to finalize a Brazilian gold mine deal by January 23, 2026. Collectively, these companies have invested over 66 billion yuan to expand their resource reserves [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Major institutions such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have raised their gold price targets for 2026, with JPMorgan predicting prices could approach $5,000 per ounce and Goldman Sachs increasing its year-end target to $5,400 per ounce, driven by central bank gold purchases and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [7].

Group 1: Company Performance - The company plans to hold a board meeting on March 26, 2026, to review and approve the annual performance announcement for the year ending December 31, 2025, and to propose a final dividend if applicable [2][6] Group 2: Project Advancement - The company continues to layout resource projects through overseas acquisitions and collaborations. The full acquisition of the Cascabel copper-gold project from SolGold and partnerships in the Ainak copper mine and North Peru mining projects are expected to progress, potentially increasing self-produced copper output and resource reserves. The company adheres to a "resource-first" strategy, which is anticipated to enhance long-term resource security [3][7] Group 3: Industry Policies and Environment - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has stated that it will solidly advance the governance of copper smelting capacity, having already halted over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects. This policy may optimize the industry supply-demand structure and provide potential support for leading enterprises. The association will continue to cooperate with relevant departments to strictly control new capacity [4][8]

Group 1 - The China Minmetals Import and Export Chamber announced a conference on March 25, 2026, to discuss export policies and market conditions for rare earth and rare metals, in response to stricter export controls imposed on dual-use items for Japan and other rare metals [1] - The conference aims to help member companies understand the new policies and export considerations, with officials from the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs expected to provide insights [1] - The meeting will also facilitate communication between government departments and enterprises regarding export challenges [1] Group 2 - As of February 12, 2026, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) rose by 1.72%, with notable increases in stocks such as Shenghe Resources (up 7.33%) and Zhongtung High-tech (up 5.88%) [2] - The Penghua Industrial Nonferrous ETF (159162) also saw a rise of 1.93%, marking its fifth consecutive increase [2] - The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index includes 30 large-cap companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 55.71% of the total index weight, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [2]

Group 1 - LME metal futures closed higher, with LME copper rising by $58 to $13,166 per ton, LME aluminum up by $10 to $3,103 per ton, LME zinc increasing by $12 to $3,406 per ton, LME lead gaining $18 to $1,993 per ton, LME nickel up by $390 to $17,880 per ton, and LME tin rising by $352 to $49,635 per ton [1] - Ping An Securities analysis indicates that the domestic aluminum ingot long-term market in 2026 will exhibit characteristics of "stable prices with adjustments, declining signing willingness, and a tight supply-demand pattern," with a positive long-term outlook for aluminum prices supported by macro sentiment recovery and fundamental strengthening [1] - As of February 12, 2026, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) surged by 1.18%, with component stocks such as Tungsten High-tech up by 6.70%, Dongyangguang up by 3.97%, and Huayou Cobalt up by 3.75%, while other stocks like Western Mining and Tongling Nonferrous also saw gains [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, Xinyi Silver Tin, Yun Aluminum, Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Mining, collectively accounting for 55.71% of the index [2]

Recent Events - Hunan Gold (002155) is suspended due to planning a major asset restructuring, intending to acquire 100% equity of Tianyue Mining and Zhongnan Smelting from its controlling shareholder to integrate gold mining resources and smelting capacity [2] - Zijin Mining (601899) is deepening its overseas layout, with its subsidiary Zijin Gold International set to complete the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana by 2025 and plans to spin off in Hong Kong by September 2025; the company will continue to pursue gold mine acquisitions in Africa to increase gold production [2] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) announced plans to acquire 100% of SolGold, which includes the Cascabel copper-gold project in Ecuador [2] Industry Policies and Environment - The new Mineral Resources Law will take effect in July 2025, simplifying the process of converting exploration rights to mining rights, potentially accelerating domestic gold resource development [3] - A high-quality development implementation plan for the gold industry will be jointly issued by nine departments in 2025, promoting breakthroughs in deep mining technology and the construction of green mines [3] - A new gold value-added tax policy will be implemented in November 2025, exempting standard gold transactions from tax but categorizing physical delivery for taxation based on usage, which may concentrate resources among compliant leading enterprises [3] Performance and Operating Conditions - Zijin Mining expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51-52 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 59% [4] - Shandong Gold (600547) reported a net profit increase of 102.98% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while Western Gold (601069) saw a net profit increase of 131.94% year-on-year [4] - Leading companies like Zijin Mining aim for an annual gold production of 100-110 tons by 2028, while Shandong Gold plans to increase its gold mines from one to thirteen [4] Stock Recent Trends - The international gold price has increased by over 65% cumulatively in 2025, surpassing 4600 USD/ounce at the beginning of 2026; several institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have raised their gold price targets for 2026 to over 5000 USD, primarily based on expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risk aversion [5] - Domestic insurance funds have initiated pilot investments in gold, and banks are launching "gold+" strategy products, which may bring additional capital into the market [5]

www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 联络人 作者 企业评级部 | 陈田田 010-66428877 | | --- | | ttchen@ccxi.com.cn | | 刘紫萱 010-66428877 | | zxliu@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 中国有色金属行业 中国有色金属行业展望，2026 年 2 月 在矿端供应偏紧、需求韧性较强的背景下，预计 2026 年有色金属行 业保持较高景气度，全球财政与货币政策调整、贸易摩擦、地缘政 治等因素将对行业发展形成扰动，基本金属价格中枢存在上行或高 位震荡预期；加工费低迷、行业竞争加剧令冶炼加工环节承压，行 业利润将进一步向资源自给率高、成本控制能力强的企业集中，整 体信用水平保持稳定。 中国有色金属行业展望为维持稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个 月行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 核心观点 1 2026 年 2 月 目录 核心观点 1 分析思路 2 行业基本面 2 行业财务表现 14 结论 22 附表 23 中诚信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 2.07% at 1.135 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 122.52% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 4.76% [1]