Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The report anticipates significant growth in revenue and profit for fiberglass in Q4 2025, while traditional building materials face performance pressure [1] - The overall outlook for the cement industry indicates continued price and profit stabilization, with domestic pressures expected to persist [4][7] - The glass industry is projected to experience ongoing revenue and profit pressure, particularly in the float glass segment due to weak downstream demand [14][20] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see robust growth driven by increased demand for raw yarn and high-end fabrics [28] Summary by Sections Cement - Q4 2025 is expected to see domestic cement performance under pressure, while overseas markets may perform better. The average national cement price is projected at 357 RMB per ton, down 16% year-on-year [7] - The report notes that the cement industry is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with a year-on-year production decline of 7% from January to November 2025 [7] - Non-operating projects may impact profits, with companies accelerating capacity replacement and asset disposals [4][7] Glass - The float glass industry is expected to remain under pressure, with high inventory levels and ongoing losses. The average price for 5mm float glass is projected at 62 RMB per box in Q4 2025, down 17% year-on-year [14] - The photovoltaic glass segment is also expected to face significant revenue and profit pressure due to weak domestic installation demand, with a projected average price of 12.3 RMB per square meter in Q4 2025 [20] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is projected to see continued high growth in revenue and profit, with domestic net demand reaching 5.48 million tons, a 19% year-on-year increase [28] - The average price for mainstream products is expected to be 3,603 RMB per ton in 2025, with a slight decrease in Q4 [28] - High-end electronic fabric prices are expected to rise, benefiting companies with a first-mover advantage [28] Renovation Materials - The renovation materials sector is expected to face continued pressure, with a year-on-year decline in housing starts, completions, and sales area [4] - Companies are exploring new business channels to maintain resilience in performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning a significant asset restructuring to acquire minority stakes in its subsidiary, Tefu International, to enhance its overseas building materials business and improve profitability [4][5][6]. Group 1: Asset Restructuring - The company announced a suspension of trading on January 15, 2026, to plan a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of minority stakes in Tefu International through share issuance and cash payment [4]. - The restructuring aims to increase the company's ownership in Tefu International from 51.55% to 100% by purchasing shares from 24 specific investors at a price of 10.80 yuan per share [6][7]. - The total amount of funds raised through this issuance will not exceed 100% of the transaction price for the asset purchase, and the success of the fundraising will not affect the asset acquisition [6][7]. Group 2: Business Expansion and Financial Impact - Tefu International has established a core business system of "tiles + sanitary ware + glass" and has expanded its production capacity across seven African countries, with a projected tile sales volume of approximately 172 million square meters in 2024, capturing 14.3% of the African tile market [8]. - The overseas building materials segment is expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue and profit, with projected revenue and net profit for Tefu International in 2025 being 8.19 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, respectively, which could add 760 million yuan to the company's net profit [8]. - The company is also investing approximately 94.72 million USD in a float glass production project in Ghana to further expand its overseas building materials business [8]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Price Increase - The price of lithium carbonate has been rising since the second half of 2025 due to supply disruptions and strong demand, which is expected to further boost the company's profits [9]. - The company's associate, Lanke Lithium Industry, achieved a lithium carbonate production and sales volume of 32,000 tons each in the first nine months of 2025, with a revenue of 1.92 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 13.5% [9]. - The net profit margin for Lanke Lithium Industry improved from 24% in the previous year to 32% in 2025, contributing 270 million yuan to the company's net profit, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is planning a major asset restructuring to acquire minority stakes in its subsidiary, Tef International, to enhance its overseas building materials business [6][8] - The overseas building materials segment has shown significant growth, with Tef International projected to contribute substantially to the company's net profit [8][10] - The restructuring is expected to solidify the company's position in the overseas market and improve operational synergies [10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 1.918 billion shares and a market capitalization of 33.927 billion yuan [1] - The stock price has fluctuated between 6.92 yuan and 17.89 yuan over the past year [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with Tef International achieving a revenue of 8.19 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.47 billion yuan in 2025 [8][10] - The overseas building materials business accounted for 46% of total revenue and 58% of gross profit in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 36.8% [8] Future Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.569 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 55.89% compared to the previous year [12] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 16.032 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.24% [12] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a P/E ratio of 22 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 2.7 [12][15] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 0.82 yuan, with a projected ROE of 12.39% [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive investment outlook for Keda Manufacturing and recommends Shengfeng Cement as a key stock for February [2][12]. Core Insights - Keda Manufacturing's acquisition of the remaining 51.55% stake in Tefu International is viewed positively, with projected revenues of 8.187 billion yuan and net profits of 1.474 billion yuan by 2025 [2]. - Shengfeng Cement is favored due to its resilient business model, low production costs, and significant investments in new economic projects exceeding 1.9 billion yuan [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in traditional electronic fabrics and related materials, driven by AI demand and copper price fluctuations [3][15]. - The trend towards space photovoltaic energy is highlighted, with a focus on UTG and TCO glass as essential materials for future energy solutions [4][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Keda Manufacturing's stock resumption is positively received, and the acquisition strengthens its strategic partnerships [2]. - Shengfeng Cement is recommended for its stable core business and cash flow from new investments [2]. Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a mixed performance, with glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors performing well, while cement manufacturing faced slight declines [19][21]. Price Changes in Construction Materials - National average cement price decreased to 345 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in sales rates [16]. - Float glass prices increased to 1,144.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.53% rise, while inventory levels decreased slightly [16][39]. Important Changes - Several companies released performance forecasts, and Keda Manufacturing announced a capital increase plan for the acquisition of Tefu International [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume-based timing signals to assess market sentiment and provide trading signals[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the volume timing signals of major broad-based indices - Signals are categorized as "cautious" or "optimistic" based on volume trends - As of January 30, 2026, all major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward approach to gauge market sentiment but may lack granularity in capturing nuanced market dynamics[23][24] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 Index over a specific period[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - The indicator is calculated as: $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Stock Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages with different window periods (N1 = 50, N2 = 35) to create a "fast line" and a "slow line" - A buy signal is generated when the fast line exceeds the slow line, and a neutral signal is generated when the fast line falls below the slow line[26][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator is effective in capturing upward market opportunities but may fail to predict downturns accurately. It also tends to miss gains during prolonged market exuberance[25] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index and generate trading signals[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 Index closing price with parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233 - Assign values to the indicator based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds: - If the price exceeds more than five moving averages, the sentiment is bullish - Generate a buy signal when the current price exceeds five moving averages[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear framework for trend analysis but may oversimplify complex market dynamics[36] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Model - All major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals as of January 30, 2026[24] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 N-day upward stock proportion indicator was above 60% as of January 30, 2026, indicating high market sentiment[25] - The fast line was above the slow line, suggesting a bullish outlook for the CSI 300 Index[26] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 Index was in a "sentiment prosperity zone" as of January 30, 2026, indicating a bullish sentiment[36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to assess the Alpha environment[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures short-term Alpha opportunities but may not fully reflect long-term trends[37] 2. Factor Name: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituents over time to assess the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides insights into market stability but may be less effective in highly volatile markets[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-sectional Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.14%, in the 69.55th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.45%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.61%, in the 66.93rd percentile of the past two years[38] 2. Time-series Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 0.96%, in the 57.20th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.22%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.17%, in the 64.94th percentile of the past two years[41]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600499 证券简称：科达制造 公告编号：2026-011 科达制造股份有限公司 关于股票交易异常波动的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 1、生产经营情况 经公司自查，公司目前日常经营情况及外部环境未发生重大变化，公司经营活动正常，不存在影响公司 股票交易价格异常波动的重大事宜，不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 2、重大事项情况 公司于2026年1月29日披露了《关于科达制造股份有限公司发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资 金暨关联交易方案的议案》等相关公告，公司拟发行股份及支付现金的方式购买广东特福国际控股有限 公司51.55%股份，并向不超过35名特定投资者发行股份募集配套资金。截至本公告披露日，本次交易 相关的审计、评估工作尚未完成，公司会同有关各方正积极推进本次交易的相关工作。 ● 科达制造股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票在2026年1月29日、30日连续两个交易日内收盘价格 涨幅偏离值累计超过20%。根据《上海证券 ...

证券代码：600499 证券简称：科达制造 公告编号：2026-011 科达制造股份有限公司 科达制造股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票在 2026 年 1 月 29 日、 30 日连续两个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过 20%。根据《上海证券交易 所交易规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动。 因筹划重大资产重组，公司 A 股股票已于 2026 年 1 月 15 日开市起 停牌；2026 年 1 月 28 日，公司第九届董事会第十五次会议审议通过了《关 于科达制造股份有限公司发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨 关联交易方案的议案》等相关议案，公司 A 股股票于 2026 年 1 月 29 日开 市起复牌。经公司自查并向第一大股东梁桐灿及其一致行动人广东宏宇集团有限 公司（以下简称"宏宇集团"）核实确认，截至本公告披露日，本公司、梁桐灿及其 一致行动人宏宇集团均不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 目前，公司上述重大资产重组事项涉及的审计、评估工作及审批程序尚未 完成，相关交易能否最终成功实施存在不确定性，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险！ 一、股票交易异常波动的具体情况 公司股票于 2026 年 1 月 ...

科达制造公告称，公司股票在2026年1月29日、30日连续两个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超 20%，属异常波动。因筹划重大资产重组，公司股票于1月15日开市起停牌，1月29日开市起复牌。公司 拟发行股份及支付现金购买广东特福国际控股有限公司51.55%股份并募集配套资金，目前审计、评估 及审批程序未完成，交易能否成功实施存在不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The specialized equipment sector experienced a slight increase of 0.67% on January 30, with Oat Technology leading the gains, while the overall Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.96% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1]. - Oat Technology (688312) saw a significant increase of 13.17%, closing at 38.85, with a trading volume of 101,100 shares and a transaction value of 376 million [1]. - Other notable gainers included: - Lijun Thermal (603391) up 10.00% to 69.71 [1]. - Tianqi Co., Ltd. (002009) up 10.00% to 28.38, with a trading volume of 949,100 shares and a transaction value of 2.581 billion [1]. - Keda Manufacturing (600499) up 8.79% to 17.69, with a trading volume of 1,414,500 shares and a transaction value of 2.429 billion [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The specialized equipment sector saw a net outflow of 236 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 946 million [2]. - The capital flow for specific stocks included: - Invek (002837) had a net inflow of 101.1 million from institutional investors but a net outflow of 650 million from retail investors [3]. - Tianqi Co., Ltd. (002009) had a net inflow of 36.9 million from institutional investors but a net outflow of 19.7 million from retail investors [3]. - Keda Manufacturing (600499) had a net inflow of 78.3 million from institutional investors, with significant outflows from retail investors [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Keda Manufacturing plans to acquire a 51.55% stake in Guangdong Teflon International Holdings Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, aiming for full control and expansion of its building materials capacity in West Africa [1][2] - The share issuance price is set at 10.80 yuan per share, and upon completion of the transaction, Teflon International will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keda Manufacturing [1] - Teflon International operates 25 production lines across seven African countries and has a strong brand presence in sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to enhance Keda Manufacturing's overall profitability after the acquisition [1] Group 2 - Keda Manufacturing also plans to build a float glass production line in Ghana with a daily melting capacity of 600 tons, utilizing self-raised funds as part of its "big building materials" strategy [2] - Ghana, as a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has a strong regional influence but lacks local glass production capacity, indicating clear market demand [2] - The new project will leverage existing resources from Keda's ceramic base in Ghana, reducing operational costs and benefiting from the experience gained from the Tanzania glass project [2]