Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between 526 million and 790 million CNY, representing a decrease of approximately 49.60% to 66.44% compared to the previous year[4]. - The estimated net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 85 million and 127.5 million CNY, with a potential decrease of 23.46% to an increase of 14.80% year-over-year[7]. - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,567.44 million CNY, with a total profit of 2,260.42 million CNY[8]. - The company reported earnings per share of 0.88 CNY in the previous year[9]. - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to investment income from the issuance of Huazhang Bailian Consumer REIT in the previous year[10]. Performance Forecast Details - The performance forecast data is preliminary and has not been audited by a registered accountant[11]. - There are no significant uncertainties that could affect the accuracy of this performance forecast[11]. - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025[5]. Investor Advisory - The company advises investors to pay attention to investment risks as the final financial data will be disclosed in the audited annual report for 2025[12]. - The company guarantees the truthfulness, accuracy, and completeness of the announcement content[3].

Core Viewpoint - Bailian Co., Ltd. expects a significant decrease in net profit for the year 2025, primarily due to last year's investment gains from the issuance of Huazhong Bailian Consumer REIT [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 526 million to 790 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 49.60% to 66.44% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 85 million and 127.5 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 23.46% to an increase of approximately 14.80% [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding [3][13] - Second-hand home transaction area has increased month-on-month and turned positive year-on-year [3][13] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has increased [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 16,000 units, down 16.2% month-on-month and down 32.2% year-on-year [14][20] - The new home transaction area was 151.5 million square meters, down 9.7% month-on-month and down 39.6% year-on-year [22][39] - Transaction volume and area for first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed varying declines [14][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transaction volume was 20,000 units, up 2.9% month-on-month and up 9.1% year-on-year [49][51] - The transaction area was 188.2 million square meters, up 4.4% month-on-month and up 18.1% year-on-year [51][52] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities exhibited different growth rates in transaction volume and area [45][49] 3. Inventory Situation - New home inventory in 12 cities was 1.373 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [35][38] - The de-stocking cycle for new home inventory was 17.7 months, increasing month-on-month and year-on-year [27][38] - Inventory levels and de-stocking cycles varied across city tiers [26][27] 4. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,044.9 million square meters, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 0.4% year-on-year [59][60] - Total land transaction value was 16.33 billion yuan, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 15.5% year-on-year [10][65] - The average land price per square meter was 1,562.8 yuan, up 1.7% month-on-month but down 15.8% year-on-year [10][61] 5. Policy Insights - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal [3] - Emphasis on stabilizing housing prices and improving market confidence through various policy measures [3][11]

Core Insights - The opening of the second phase of Jinan Haina City Bailian Outlets marks a significant expansion for Bailian Outlets, with a total area of 150,000 square meters and nearly 300 brands, providing a comprehensive "shopping + leisure + tourism" experience [1][3] - Bailian's General Manager highlighted the project's role in transforming the commercial model and enhancing consumer experience, moving from a transaction-focused space to an experiential destination [1][4] Company Strategy - Bailian Outlets has established itself as a leader in the outlet sector, achieving over 1 million square meters of total building area and maintaining an annual sales growth rate of approximately 20% [3][4] - The company aims to expand its footprint across key cities in China, with plans to increase the number of managed stores to 15 and exceed 2 million square meters by 2030 [7][8] Market Trends - The outlet sector is experiencing growth despite a slowdown in traditional retail, aligning with consumer demand for high value and deep experiences [3][4] - The transformation of outlets into leisure and vacation destinations reflects a broader trend in the retail industry towards integrating cultural and tourism elements [7][9] Future Outlook - Bailian plans to leverage light asset models and public REITs to support its expansion, transitioning from a heavy asset approach to a more balanced capital and operational strategy [8][10] - The company is focused on enhancing its brand influence through data empowerment, experience innovation, and ecosystem collaboration, aiming for high-quality development in the retail sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its adherence to accounting standards and the integrity of its financial reporting, asserting that there are no issues with the accuracy of its net assets [1] Group 1 - The company has consistently received standard unqualified opinions from its auditing firms for annual reports [1] - The management team is committed to enhancing the company's intrinsic value and core competitiveness [1] - The company aims for sustainable and stable development in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bailian Co., Ltd. (600827) emphasizes its commitment to diligent management and continuous improvement in business operations to create greater value for investors [1] Group 1 - The management team is focused on building benchmark commercial models and upgrading key projects [1] - The company is actively enhancing its supply chain construction to improve operational quality [1] - There is a strong emphasis on deepening the integration of production and finance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Bailian Co., Ltd. (600827) clarified its independent status in response to investor inquiries, stating that it operates separately from Shanghai Port Group (600018) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bailian Co., Ltd. (600827) emphasizes its robust project investment process and adherence to the review procedures outlined in its Articles of Association, aiming to create differentiated advantages and good returns for investors [1] Group 1 - The company is advancing strategic projects through the expansion of advantageous business formats [1] - It is focusing on the transformation and upgrading of key projects, as well as supply chain construction [1] - The company is implementing multiple initiatives, including benchmark commercial development and deepening financial and industrial collaboration [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that its stock price movements in the secondary market are influenced by market sentiment and macroeconomic conditions, while its production and operations remain normal [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company confirms that there are no undisclosed matters that should be disclosed [1] - The company focuses on enhancing operational quality and long-term sustainable development as the core of its market value management [1] Group 2: Shareholder Interests - The company places high importance on maintaining the long-term interests of all shareholders and the steady growth of company value [1] - The company aims to provide good performance and stable dividends to return value to investors [1]