证券研究报告·公司深度研究·其他电源设备Ⅱ 东方电气（600875） 东方巨擎，筑能源之基 2026 年 02 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 60,677 | 69,695 | 80,756 | 90,713 | 99,988 | | 同比（%） | 9.60 | 14.86 | 15.87 | 12.33 | 10.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,550 | 2,922 | 3,501 | 4,524 | 5,440 | | 同比（%） | 24.23 | (17.70) | 19.80 | 29.23 | 20.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.03 | 0.84 | 1.01 | 1.31 | 1.57 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 32.96 | 40.05 | 33.43 | 25.87 | 21.51 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

（原标题：工业机械巨兽订单排到2030年 中国燃气轮机企业迎超级红利） 拥有装备制造业"皇冠上的明珠"之称的燃气轮机，正因AI等新兴应用场景而需求爆发。 2月中旬，西门子能源发布的2026财年第一财季财报透露了一个信息：受益于大型数据中心自建电厂的需求增长，其燃气轮机业务在报告期内获得 87.5亿欧元订单，创下历史新高，至此该公司截至2025年底积压的燃气轮机订单高达600亿欧元。 在财报电话会上，西门子能源总裁兼首席执行官克里斯蒂安·布鲁赫（Christian Bruch）称："公司燃气轮机的交付时间已经排到了2029年、2030 年，且2028年的供应也会十分有限。" 公开资料显示，目前全球从事燃气轮机研究、设计、生产、销售的主要企业仅有20多家，市场份额为欧美等海外企业垄断。其中，西门子能源、 GE Vernova以及三菱重工被视作该领域的三巨头，合计占据了80%的市场份额。 2026年1月、2月，随着GE Vernova以及西门子能源的财报浮出水面，燃气轮机成为这两家公司业绩增长的主要动力。 根据GE Vernova的数据，2025年，该公司全年新签订单金额为593亿美元，同比增长34%，主要得益于电 ...

【中信证券新材料/机械/电新】核电行业重点推荐——高端制造估值重估，短期业绩高增远期空间广阔 ‼核心观点：①核电为低位、低估值、高科技属性大容量板块，同时国内外利好催化密集；②大部分标的长期估值 受限，但短期板块将业绩高增，同时四代堆/小堆/核应用/出口/乏燃料将贡献增量；③聚变资本开支基准有望迎事 件切换，大幅拔高远期估值。 ‼高利润率高成长，估值长期受限。 25年我国核 【中信证券新材料/机械/电新】核电行业重点推荐——高端制造估值重估，短期业绩高增远期空间广阔 ‼核心观点：①核电为低位、低估值、高科技属性大容量板块，同时国内外利好催化密集；②大部分标的长期估值 受限，但短期板块将业绩高增，同时四代堆/小堆/核应用/出口/乏燃料将贡献增量；③聚变资本开支基准有望迎事 件切换，大幅拔高远期估值。 ‼高利润率高成长，估值长期受限。 25年我国核电发电占比约4.82%，世界平均水平10%，发达国家普遍在20%以上，AI需求引发行业复兴，空间广 阔。 行业壁垒导致核岛核心设备毛利率在30%以上。 在历史业绩稳健增长、毛利率较高的背景下，零部件企业估值提升长期受限，我们认为核心原因是市场对核电"远 期成长"信心不足 ...

每经AI快讯，2月24日，火电指数盘中强势上涨3%，成分股表现活跃。其中，豫能控股涨停，晋控电力 上涨7.69%，电投绿能上涨7.02%，新能泰山上涨5.99%，东方电气上涨5.84%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，海外重燃主机厂扩产节奏克制，供需硬缺口将长期延续。该行估计 2025年全球重燃意向订单已超80GW，而实际可交付产能仅约50GW，三菱重工测算GTCC联合循环重燃 市场需求或接近100GW，供需矛盾显著。核心原因在于头部厂商扩产周期(3-5年)滞后于AIDC、调峰等 需求爆发。从三大主机厂看，GEV、西门子能源、三菱重工在手订单饱满，排产均至2029年。 东方电气（600875）(01072)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.82%，报35.34港元，成交额3.55亿港元。 美银证券此前表示，东方电气燃气轮机出口有潜在扩张空间。该行预测，公司2025至2027年净利润的年 复合增长率将达13%，受惠于中国电力资本开支上升周期。此外，设备订单随平均售价回升进行销售确 认，将驱动公司净利润稳步增长。 ...

财通证券发布研报称，海外重燃主机厂扩产节奏克制，供需硬缺口将长期延续。该行估计2025年全球重 燃意向订单已超80GW，而实际可交付产能仅约 50GW，三菱重工测算GTCC联合循环重燃市场需求或 接近100GW，供需矛盾显著。核心原因在于头部厂商扩产周期(3-5年)滞后于AIDC、调峰等需求爆发。 从三大主机厂看，GEV、西门子能源、三菱重工在手订单饱满，排产均至2029年。 智通财经APP获悉，东方电气(01072)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.82%，报35.34港元，成交额3.55亿港元。 美银证券此前表示，东方电气燃气轮机出口有潜在扩张空间。该行预测，公司2025至2027年净利润的年 复合增长率将达13%，受惠于中国电力资本开支上升周期。此外，设备订单随平均售价回升进行销售确 认，将驱动公司净利润稳步增长。 ...

其中我们再重点推荐仍有预期差标的： 发电设备整机出海：当前进度燃气发动机＞燃气轮机 1、 燃气发动机：从generac报表可见海外柴发缺货问题，具备柴发生产能 【天风电新】再call北美AI缺电：相关标的再梳理 【天风电新】再call北美AI缺电：相关标的再梳理 节后我们继续重点看好北美AIDC缺电，短期26-27年看好燃气发动机、SOFC快速上量，中期看好燃气轮机、类燃 机、电力设备需求增长、产业链估值上修。 #公司近期已开始接到燃气发动机相关订单、逐步上量。 预计公司26-27年净利润3.8、7亿净利润，当前估值37、20X。 节后我们继续重点看好北美AIDC缺电，短期26-27年看好燃气发动机、SOFC快速上量，中期看好燃气轮机、类燃 机、电力设备需求增长、产业链估值上修。 其中我们再重点推荐仍有预期差标的： 发电设备整机出海：当前进度燃气发动机＞燃气轮机 1、 燃气发动机：从generac报表可见海外柴发缺货问题，具备柴发生产能力的【潍柴动力】、【动力新科】我们预 计将不仅受益北美柴发出海加速，燃气发动机26H2开始均有望贡献增量利润。 当前两家公司27年PE均在15X左右，并存在出货量及利润上修空间 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent issuance of guidelines by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aimed at establishing a unified national electricity market by 2030, with a target of 70% market-based trading by that year [5] - The European natural gas inventory has dropped to a low level due to extreme cold and supply disruptions, with the average daily net withdrawal in January 2025 reaching a five-year high [5] - The report suggests that the electricity sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following several rounds of supply-demand tensions [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of February 13, the utility sector declined by 1.2%, underperforming the broader market, with the electricity sector down by 1.13% and the gas sector down by 2.27% [4][12] - The top-performing companies in the electricity sector included Zhongmin Energy and Huaneng International, while Nanshan Energy and Guikang Power saw significant declines [16] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 19 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 712 CNY/ton as of February 13 [4][21] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased to 5.45 million tons, down by 180,000 tons week-on-week [28] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was 3.148 million tons, down by 609,000 tons/day, with a usable days increase to 28.38 days [30] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 3,759 CNY/ton, down 15.03% year-on-year and 5.20% week-on-week [56] - The EU natural gas supply for week 5 of 2026 was 6.19 billion cubic meters, up 13.4% year-on-year [62] - The average daily consumption of natural gas in the EU was estimated at 11.33 billion cubic meters, up 26.0% year-on-year [5] Key Industry News - The report discusses the establishment of a national electricity market system with specific reform tasks outlined for achieving a fully market-based electricity resource allocation by 2035 [5] - The report notes that the European natural gas inventory has fallen to 50.36%, significantly below the average levels of previous years, raising concerns about potential shortages [5] Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, the report recommends focusing on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [5] - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gas turbine industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the increasing power demand from AI applications, particularly in the North American market [2][6]. Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The global demand for gas turbines is expected to rise, with a forecasted additional requirement of 31GW of power for AI data centers in the U.S. over the next five years [6]. - The electricity consumption of global data centers is projected to increase from 415TWh in 2024 to 945TWh by 2030, with the U.S. accounting for 45% of this demand [6]. - The North American market is focusing on traditional power generation equipment such as gas turbines, gas internal combustion engines, and diesel generators to meet the surging electricity needs [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Jerry Holdings and Yingliu Technology have seen their stock prices soar, with Jerry Holdings' stock increasing by 96% in 2025 and an additional 38.94% in the first two months of this year [5]. - Yingliu Technology's stock has risen over 50% this year, while Dongfang Electric's stock has increased by more than 30% [5]. - Jerry Holdings has secured four contracts in North America since November 2025, with a total contract value of approximately 34 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Advantages of Gas Turbines - Gas turbines are favored for their quick startup, easy deployment, stable power generation, energy efficiency, low maintenance, and cost-effectiveness, making them an optimal choice for AI data center power supply [7]. - The efficiency of gas turbine combined cycles can exceed 60%, and they have the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The global gas turbine sales are expected to increase, with the number of MW orders projected to rise from 58GW in 2024 to 71GW in 2025, and the number of units ordered expected to grow from 471 to 964 [8]. - Major manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have their order deliveries scheduled until 2029, indicating strong future demand [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights recent developments regarding Dongfang Electric (600875), focusing on business expansion, market dynamics, and external environmental changes [1] Business Progress - In late January 2026, Dongfang Electric secured new projects in various fields, including hydropower unit upgrades, coal-fired unit modifications, molten salt storage demonstration projects, and electrochemical energy storage equipment, indicating active engagement in both new energy technology applications and traditional business upgrades [2] - On February 12, 2026, the company established a joint venture with Anhui Energy, receiving a cash injection of 947 million yuan to optimize cash flow and governance structure. Additionally, the controlling shareholder, Dongfang Electric Group, completed a share buyback exceeding 100 million yuan, increasing its stake to 51.37%, reflecting confidence in long-term development [2] Industry Policies and Environment - Citigroup noted that Dongfang Electric is in discussions with data center clients in the U.S. and Southeast Asia regarding potential sales of gas turbines, which may present overseas opportunities despite unclear order details. The North American data center construction exacerbates power shortages, while breakthroughs in Chinese gas turbine technology support exports [3] - On February 12, 2026, the State Council issued guidelines to establish a unified national electricity market by 2030, aiming for 70% of electricity transactions to be market-based, which could benefit the power equipment industry in the long term. Additionally, the implementation of the Atomic Energy Law on January 15, 2026, encourages controlled nuclear fusion, providing potential order expectations for related companies [3] Executive Changes - On February 9, 2026, the company announced the completion of share reduction plans by executives Wang Jun and Hu Xiukui, with the total shares reduced representing a minimal proportion of the company's total equity (maximum of 0.00047%), having limited impact on the overall equity structure [4] Recent Stock Performance - On February 12, 2026, Dongfang Electric's A-shares hit the daily limit, closing at 33.65 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 116.374 billion yuan. Bank of America Securities initiated a "buy" rating with a target price of 33 HKD, forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 13% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, primarily based on thermal and nuclear power order deliveries and gas turbine export potential. However, Citigroup cautioned that the company's gas turbine prices and gross margins are lower than international competitors, necessitating attention to technological gaps and compliance risks [5] Future Development - The International Energy Agency predicts that the global nuclear fusion market could reach 496.55 billion USD by 2030, positioning Dongfang Electric, as a leading power equipment manufacturer, to benefit from the energy transition trend. The company expects its effective orders to exceed 100 billion yuan (101.1 billion yuan) in 2024, with an increasing proportion of clean energy equipment, laying a foundation for future growth [6]