3 月金股报告 ——指数震荡，风格再平衡 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 分析师：王永健 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 （2）国内政策流动性宽松，筑牢市场底部。2 月 25 日央行开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作 并净投放 3000 亿元，连续第 12 个月加量续作，确保春节前后的流动性合理充裕；人 民币汇率持续走强稳定了跨境资金流动预期。 科技大类中，高端制造领涨；周期品中，建材钢铁走强。 （1）科技类资产内部，中游高端制造领涨。国防军工、机械设备、电力设备等中游 高端制造表现突出。其中，地缘政治动荡推动国防军工的走强，产业突破亦为其注入 了新的增长动力；海外制造业回暖、国内设备更新周期为机械设备提供支撑；电力设 备受益于 AI 产业海外缺电叙事与两会前的产业政策预期。 （2）周期大类中，建筑材料、钢铁、煤炭占优，有色金属回调。建筑材料中以玻璃 纤维主题领涨，主要受益于供给端优化、AI 算力和新能源需求预期的外溢。此外，在 地产政策托底预期与高股息属性共振下，钢铁与煤炭板块亦有突出表现。相反，受美 联储降息预期反复、海外地缘扰动与商品震荡走势传导，前期涨幅过大的 ...

煤炭ETF（515220）业绩比较基准为中证煤炭指数收益率，管理人为国泰基金管理有限公司，基金经理 为吴中昊，成立（2020-01-20）以来回报为173.17%，近一个月回报为6.21%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月27日，截止午间收盘，煤炭ETF（515220）涨1.45%，报1.186元，成交额3.12亿元。煤炭ETF （515220）重仓股方面，中国神华截止午盘涨0.29%，陕西煤业涨0.60%，兖矿能源涨1.53%，中煤能源 涨3.29%，山西焦煤涨1.12%，华阳股份涨1.55%，美锦能源涨2.99%，潞安环能涨2.61%，淮北矿业涨 0.52%，平煤股份涨0.92%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 版费 行业 相关研究 近券研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 产地供给恢复缓慢、进口 缩,看好煤价继续上 -煤炭行业周报（2026.2.7-2026.2.13） 本期投资后了 ● 动力煤方面，截至 2 月 13 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 556、638、718 元/吨，环比上涨 23、25、23 元/吨。供 给端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 165.76 万吨，环比上周增加 7.2 万吨，增幅 4.54%，同比增加 6.57%。需求端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区 本周日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and an expected reduction in imports, which is anticipated to support continued increases in coal prices [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42% [1]. - The report suggests that the current tight supply conditions, coupled with increased demand from downstream sectors, will likely sustain coal prices in the near term [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for significant market participation by 2030 and full establishment by 2035 [8]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, with a focus on intelligent operations and strict enforcement of safety regulations [8]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with specific grades reporting no change in price [9][11]. - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [10]. Inventory and Supply - The Bohai Rim ports reported a decrease in coal inventory, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026, down 1.96% from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the number of vessels anchored at the Bohai Rim ports decreased, reflecting tighter supply conditions [21]. Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, while international freight rates showed mixed trends [28]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal market is expected to perform well post-holiday, driven by domestic price increases as demand shifts towards domestic coal procurement due to rising overseas prices [1][7] - The focus for the coal market this year is on overseas developments rather than domestic factors, with potential "black swan" events in the overseas market, particularly related to U.S. demand and Indonesian production cuts, being crucial for price movements [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of Indonesian coal supply and its impact on global coal prices, suggesting that significant production cuts could lead to a tight global coal market and higher prices [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3940.86 points, up 1.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points during the week of February 9 to February 13, 2026 [77] - Domestic coal production was largely halted during the holiday, but overseas coal prices continued to rise, leading to an expectation of increased domestic prices as demand shifts [1][7] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Supply constraints have led to stable price increases before the holiday, with port inventories declining and daily consumption at power plants decreasing [11][27][30] - **Coking Coal**: Prices remained stable as downstream inventory replenishment ended, with a focus on the impact of Mongolian coal imports [35][42] - **Coke**: The market is expected to remain stable post-holiday, with attention on downstream demand recovery [53][75] Key Companies - The report highlights several companies as key investment targets, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a "Buy" rating and projected EPS growth [9] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) also rated "Buy" [9] - New Energy (601918.SH) and Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with "Buy" ratings [9] - Companies with overseas operations such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia are noted for their potential benefits from overseas market dynamics [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the coal market post-Chinese New Year, driven by supply constraints and inventory depletion, with expectations of significant price increases [9][11]. - Domestic coal prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, while port coal prices are accelerating upward [12][11]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will return to a balanced supply-demand state in 2023-2024, with prices expected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [11][12]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jinko Coal Industry (601001): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Shanxi Coal International (600546): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 17 [2]. - Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 15 [2]. - Yancoal Energy (600188): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 12 [2]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 14 [2]. - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - China Coal Energy (601898): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - CGN Mining (1164.HK): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE of 108 [2]. - Xinji Energy (601918): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 8 [2]. - Huaibei Mining (600985): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 7 [2]. - Lanhua Sci-Tech (600123): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.9% compared to the 0.4% increase in the CSI 300 index [20][17]. - The thermal coal sub-sector showed the highest increase of 3.0%, while the coking coal sub-sector experienced a decline of 3.9% [20][17]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal supply is tightening due to the Chinese New Year holiday, with a significant decrease in port inventory levels compared to the previous year [11][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot market exposure and recommends focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and high cash flow [12][11].

Core Viewpoint - Huabei Mining (600985) is facing significant challenges in the coal and coal chemical industry due to ongoing downturns, and the company is implementing strict cost-reduction measures to maintain operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company currently operates 16 production mines and has 1 mine under construction, with a total resource reserve of approximately 6 billion tons [1] - The average mining lifespan is estimated to be around 40 years based on current production capacity [1] Group 2: Geological Challenges - The Huabei mining area presents complex geological conditions, including developed faults, poor coal seam stability, significant water hazards, high gas content, and substantial geostress, which increase mining technical difficulties and safety production costs [1] Group 3: Cost Management Strategies - In response to the industry's challenges, the company is committed to implementing the "20 measures for cost reduction and revenue increase" and the "seven controls and one strengthening" initiative to minimize costs related to repairs, outsourcing, logistics, and other major expenses [1] - The company aims to reduce the sales cost per ton of coal by over 20 yuan compared to 2025 by the year 2026 [1] Group 4: Employee Information - The company has indicated that details regarding employee numbers will be available in the upcoming annual report [1]

Group 1 - The company, Huaibei Mining, reported that as of January 31, 2026, the total number of shareholders is 42,186 [2]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) experienced a decline of 1.12%, closing at 1.151 yuan with a trading volume of 303 million yuan [1] - Major holdings in the coal ETF showed mixed performance, with China Shenhua down 2.42%, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 2.44%, and Yanzhou Coal Mining down 0.80%, while Shanxi Coking Coal increased by 0.28% [1] - The coal ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Coal Index return, managed by Guotai Asset Management, with a return of 172.28% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a return of 6.49% over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huabei Mining Co., Ltd. has announced a valuation enhancement plan due to its stock price being below the net asset value per share for 12 consecutive months, aiming to improve overall company value and shareholder returns [4][5][18]. Group 1: Management Changes - The company has received resignation letters from Chief Engineer Zhu Shikui and Deputy General Manager Nie Zheng, effective upon delivery, and their departure will not affect normal operations [2]. Group 2: Valuation Enhancement Plan - The plan was triggered by the stock price being below the audited net asset value per share, with specific thresholds set for the periods from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [5]. - The board approved the valuation enhancement plan on February 12, 2026, with unanimous support [5]. - The plan includes focusing on core business areas, enhancing operational management, improving investor relations, and encouraging shareholder buybacks [4][5]. Group 3: Business Development Strategies - The company aims to strengthen its coal industry by accelerating the construction of new mines and enhancing resource reserves through acquisitions [6]. - In the coal power sector, it is advancing significant projects, including a 2×660MW supercritical coal-fired power generation project [6]. - The company is expanding its renewable energy initiatives, including wind and solar projects, and enhancing gas utilization for power generation [8]. - In the chemical sector, it focuses on high-end, diversified, and low-carbon development, aiming to optimize production and innovate products [9]. - The non-coal mining sector is being developed with new projects and resource expansion plans [10]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company is committed to improving operational efficiency and reducing costs through various management strategies and tools [11]. - It aims to lower coal production costs by over 20 yuan per ton and reduce chemical and power product costs by more than 3% [12]. Group 5: Shareholder Returns and Communication - The company has distributed a total of 12.9 billion yuan in cash dividends since 2018, with an average payout ratio of about 38% [13]. - Future plans include increasing the cash dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35% over the next three years [14]. - The company emphasizes transparency in information disclosure and aims to enhance communication with investors [15][16]. - It encourages major shareholders to increase their holdings to boost market confidence [17].