Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report emphasizes that the price of thermal coal is influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors, while coking coal prices are more market-driven [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 RMB per ton for 2025 [4][15] - Coking coal prices are determined by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. Key stocks to consider include: - Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversification and growth logic: 神火股份, 电投能源, 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points [10][25] - As of January 30, the price of Qin港 Q5500 thermal coal was 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 7 RMB from the previous period [21] - The report notes a significant drop in coal inventory at ports, indicating tightening supply conditions [21][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report outlines a four-step process for the upward movement of thermal coal prices, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven point for coal and power companies [4][15] - The report emphasizes that the overall investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly during the heating season [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery is expected to follow a specific process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven price of around 750 RMB per ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 RMB to 2064 RMB depending on thermal coal price movements [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, and 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, and 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points, with notable gains from companies like 盘江股份 and 山西焦化 [10][25] - The report provides various market indicators, including port prices for thermal coal at 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase, and coking coal prices remaining stable at 1800 RMB per ton [21][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in coal auction listings in Mongolia for 2025, with a total of 40.8832 million tons listed, up by 14.272 million tons. However, the transaction volume is slightly lower than in 2024, at 21.792 million tons, down by 0.576 million tons [2] - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, recommending investments in China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also highlights companies focusing on smart mining, such as Keda Control, and those undergoing turnaround, like China Qinfa [3][7] - The report notes that the core port for coal transactions remains Ganqimaodu, contributing 83% of the total transaction volume [2] Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up by $4.81 (7.3%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up by $4.14 (6.78%) [1] - Natural gas prices showed mixed trends, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.68 per million British thermal units, down by $0.13 (-1.11%). The Dutch TTF gas futures settled at €40.65 per megawatt-hour, up by €1.28 (3.24%) [1] - Coal prices increased, with European ARA port coal prices at $101.50 per ton, up by $3.00 (3.05%), and Newcastle port coal prices at $116.75 per ton, up by $5.25 (4.71%) [1] Auction Performance - The report indicates that ETT led the auction with a transaction of 12.5696 million tons, followed by small TT and ER with 5.3632 million tons and 3.1296 million tons, respectively. The report also notes that coking coal transactions totaled 13.6192 million tons, down by 3.0656 million tons, while thermal coal transactions increased by 3.584 million tons to 8.1728 million tons [6] Key Stocks - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.21 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.32 - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.56 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16.38 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 14.86 [7]

Group 1 - February macro outlook indicates a favorable macro environment for equity markets, with expectations of strong economic and credit data at the beginning of the year [7][9] - The strategy outlook suggests a transition in market styles, with a focus on growth "rest" and a continued bullish stance while adjusting portfolio structures [9][10] - The quantitative strategy emphasizes investing in small-cap stocks and taking long positions before the Spring Festival [10] Group 2 - The February gold stock selection includes companies from various sectors: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit, Shengkong Co. - Consumer Electronics: Baiwei Storage - Computing: Yunsai Zhiliang - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Non-ferrous Metals: Shengtun Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum - Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - Coal: Huaibei Mining - Non-bank Financials: Dongfang Securities [12][14] - The rationale for selected stocks includes: - Shiyun Circuit is expected to benefit from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, potentially leading to significant growth [13] - Shengkong Co. is positioned to gain from the semiconductor cycle, with demand driven by AI and storage needs [17] - Baiwei Storage is set to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with a focus on domestic market share growth [20] - Yunsai Zhiliang is anticipated to see increased demand for cloud services and IDC, driven by AI advancements [22] - Kexin Innovation Source is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the AI liquid cooling market, enhancing revenue and profitability [26] - Shengtun Mining is projected to improve profitability through copper price increases and strategic acquisitions [31] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to benefit from increased copper and cobalt production, alongside new gold mining projects [35] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry is positioned for growth through diversification in machinery sectors and global expansion [40] - Huaibei Mining is highlighted for its high elasticity in coking coal, with price improvements expected in 2026 [46] - Dongfang Securities is set to benefit from regulatory support and potential mergers, enhancing its market position [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand dynamic in the coal market, with expectations of stable to increasing coal prices due to ongoing high demand and tightening supply conditions [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in coal companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, particularly in light of the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,847.47 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 19,430.80 billion yuan [2]. 2. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Yancoal Energy are highlighted for their robust operational performance and strategic growth plans [12][13]. - China Shenhua is expected to achieve a net profit of 495-545 billion yuan in 2025, while Shanxi Coking Coal anticipates a significant decline in profits due to market pressures [8]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen a slight increase, with the average price at the Qinhuangdao port reported at 698 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan [8]. - The international coal price has also risen, with Newcastle coal futures closing at 111.75 USD per ton, marking a daily increase of 2.43% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces in China reached 6.648 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 36.48% [8]. - Supply constraints are expected as many private coal mines prepare for seasonal shutdowns, leading to a reduction in overall coal supply [8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and growth potential, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8][12]. - It also highlights the potential for companies like Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma to rebound as market conditions improve [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly before the holiday, with expectations for a stronger market post-holiday. Supply has tightened due to the upcoming holiday and production targets being met, while demand has increased due to cold weather affecting power plant consumption [10][11]. - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and a significant decrease in Indonesia's production targets for 2026 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are less affected by production limits [10][15]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jin控煤业 (Jin控 Coal Industry): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 山煤国际 (Shan Coal International): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 潞安环能 (Luan Environmental Energy): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [2]. - 华阳股份 (Huayang Co.): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15 [2]. - 兖矿能源 (Yankuang Energy): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中国神华 (China Shenhua): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 14 [2]. - 陕西煤业 (Shaanxi Coal): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中煤能源 (China Coal Energy): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE ratio of 113 [2]. - 新集能源 (Xinjie Energy): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 8 [2]. - 淮北矿业 (Huaibei Mining): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 7 [2]. - 兰花科创 (Lanhua Sci-Tech): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.0% compared to a 0.1% increase in the CSI 300 index [17][20]. - Notable performers include 陕西黑猫 (Shaanxi Black Cat) with a 14.50% increase and 盘江股份 (Panjiang Coal) with a 13.25% increase [23][24]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply due to production limits and increased demand from power plants, leading to a potential price increase in the coal market [10][11]. - The focus on high dividend yield companies is emphasized as a defensive strategy amid uncertain international conditions [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading coal enterprise in East China, focusing on a diversified strategy that emphasizes coal production while expanding into coal chemical, power generation, and aggregate businesses [6][8] - The report highlights the certainty of production increases from the resumption of the Xinhui Mine and the upcoming production of the Taohutu Mine, which are expected to significantly contribute to the company's profitability [9][10] - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns through a planned dividend distribution of no less than 35% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the years 2025-2027 [10][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huabei Mining is a major coal enterprise in East China, with a focus on coal mining, processing, and chemical production, supported by a strong state-owned background [6][17] - The company has a total share capital of 2,693.26 million shares and a market capitalization of approximately 33,827.33 million yuan [1] Business Growth and Diversification - The company is actively pursuing a multi-faceted growth strategy, with coal production as the core, while also expanding into coal chemicals, power generation, and aggregates [8][9] - The Xinhui Mine, with a capacity of 3 million tons/year, is expected to resume production, contributing significantly to net profits in the coming years [29] - The Taohutu Mine, with a capacity of 8 million tons/year, is set to begin production in 2026, further enhancing the company's output and profitability [32] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 429.81 billion, 477.28 billion, and 508.09 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 14.95 billion, 26.24 billion, and 41.02 billion yuan [12][7] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 22.6X, 12.9X, and 8.2X for the respective years, indicating potential value for investors [12][7] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to enter a phase of reduced capital expenditure as major projects near completion, which will enhance its ability to return value to shareholders [10][12] - The planned dividend policy reflects a commitment to shareholder returns, with a minimum payout ratio set at 35% of net profits [10][12]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), with seasonal demand during the "peak winter" leading to a 1.3% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.2% rise in PPI over three consecutive months [5][6] - The coal price is expected to stabilize due to its high correlation with PPI, with a potential low point for coal prices in 2025, influenced by policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [5] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security demands, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5][6] - Despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 30, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 692 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 61 CNY/ton [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.329 million tons, down 81,000 tons week-on-week but up 1.77 million tons year-on-year [3][42] - The coal inventory index is slightly down to 180.4, indicating a minor decrease in coal stocks [3][53] Coking Coal - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is stable at 1800 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 340 CNY/ton [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 771,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4][71] - The coking coal inventory stands at 2.672 million tons, down 7.2% week-on-week [4][71] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily consumption of the six major power plants has decreased to 847,000 tons, down 3.7% week-on-week but up 27.8% year-on-year [42][43] - The inventory of the six major power plants is 13.185 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week [43][44] - The methanol and urea operating rates are at 91.2% and 88.3%, respectively, indicating a slight increase [47][48] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also highlighted [6] - Firms with global resource scarcity attributes, like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, are recommended for investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huabei Mining is a leading coal enterprise in East China, focusing on a development strategy that relies on coal while diversifying its operations, forming a comprehensive coal utilization industry chain from mining to processing and power generation [1] Coal Business - The coal business remains the main source of gross profit for the company, accounting for approximately 60% of gross profit as of June 2025, while the coal chemical business has seen a recovery, contributing about 26% [1] - Production growth is expected from the resumption of operations at the Xinh Lake Mine and the commissioning of the Tao Hutou Mine, with the Xinh Lake Mine expected to contribute significantly to coal output [2][3] Coal Chemical Business - The company’s coal chemical segment is projected to see growth from the ramp-up of a 60,000-ton/year anhydrous ethanol project, which utilizes approximately 450,000 tons of methanol annually [3] - The project is expected to achieve a capacity utilization rate of around 91% by 2025, contributing to sustained profit growth in the coal chemical sector [3] Power Generation - The company is investing in a 2×660MW supercritical coal-fired power generation project, expected to be operational by 2026, which will utilize advanced reheat technology [3] - This project is anticipated to contribute net profits of 1.17/1.76/2.34 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028 under neutral pricing assumptions [3] Sand and Gravel Aggregate Business - The company has a certified production capacity of 27.4 million tons/year in the sand and gravel aggregate sector, with plans to increase this to 40.9 million tons/year following the commissioning of new mines [4] - The sand and gravel business is expected to contribute net profits of 2.12/2.62/3.11 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028 [4] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditure is expected to decrease as major projects transition from construction to operational phases, enhancing the company's ability to return value to shareholders [5] - The company has committed to distributing at least 35% of its net profit to shareholders in cash annually from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing its strong dividend profile [5] - The company is actively managing its market value and enhancing investor returns through various initiatives [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Huabei Mining from 2025 to 2027 are 429.81/477.28/508.09 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 14.95/26.24/41.02 billion yuan [6][7] - The company’s coal business shows strong growth potential, with ongoing expansion in power and non-coal mining sectors, indicating a diversified growth strategy [7]

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: 淮北矿业 (Huabei Mining) - **Industry**: Coal Mining and Related Industries Key Points and Arguments 1. 2025 Performance and Outlook - The company has released its performance forecast for 2025, indicating a significant decline in performance, with a decrease of nearly 70% compared to previous years [2][3][4]. 2. Quarterly Performance Insights - The third quarter of the year was identified as the lowest point for the company, primarily due to production issues related to the transition between old and new mining faces [3]. - The fourth quarter is expected to show improved performance as production issues have been resolved, although specific figures will be disclosed in the annual report [3]. 3. Coal Price Trends - The coal market experienced a downward trend in the first half of the year, with prices hitting a low of 1330 CNY per ton in July. However, prices began to recover in the second half, reaching 1660 CNY per ton by December [4][6]. - The average price for the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the previous year's average of 1890 CNY per ton, indicating a continued price decline [7]. 4. Production Challenges - The company anticipates a decrease in production in 2025 compared to 2024 due to increasing mining difficulties and declining coal quality [7]. - Efforts are being made to optimize production organization to maximize output from high-quality reserves [7]. 5. Coal Chemical Sector Performance - The coal chemical sector is still operating at a loss, but losses have decreased compared to the previous year. The ethanol segment is expected to meet annual production targets [8]. 6. Non-Coal Mining Operations - Non-coal mining operations, including sand and gravel, are expected to stabilize as production capacity is gradually released in the fourth quarter [8]. 7. Power Generation and Pricing - The company’s power generation operations are stable, but electricity prices in Anhui province are expected to decrease by 2 to 4 cents, impacting profitability in 2026 [10]. - A new coal-fired power plant is nearing completion and is expected to begin operations in April [10]. 8. Future Coal Price Predictions - The outlook for coal prices in 2026 is uncertain, heavily influenced by import levels and domestic supply constraints. A balance in imports is crucial for maintaining domestic coal prices [24][25]. 9. Asset Impairment and Financial Adjustments - Annual asset impairment assessments are standard practice, with adjustments expected based on third-party audits [26]. 10. Safety and Production Recovery - The company is working on the recovery of the Xifeng Mine, with plans for one working face to resume production in the first quarter of the year [31]. 11. Expansion and Acquisition Plans - The company is actively exploring acquisition opportunities in coal, chemical, and non-coal mining sectors, with a focus on larger assets (minimum 200,000 tons) [43][51]. 12. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a minimum dividend payout of 35% for the next three years, with potential for increases depending on cash flow and capital expenditures [34][35]. 13. Chemical Product Demand - There is a positive outlook for chemical products, with indications of increased demand and potential for better contract terms in the upcoming year [41]. 14. Negotiations for Equity Transfers - Ongoing negotiations for equity transfers related to the Taohutou project are facing challenges primarily due to price disagreements [55][57]. Additional Important Information - The company is focusing on enhancing its coal-electricity integration strategy, which is expected to stabilize cash flow and improve profitability [21][22]. - The coal market is currently in a down cycle, which may present opportunities for strategic acquisitions at more favorable prices [44]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the company's current status and future outlook in the coal mining industry.