宝丰能源 20260128 摘要 聚烯烃是重要化工品，中国 2023 年表观消费量约为 7,500 万吨，并保 持每年 3-5%的增长。国内聚乙烯存在约 30%的进口依赖，聚丙烯基本 无进口，主要因海外原油成本优势导致聚乙烯价格更具竞争力。 聚乙烯生产工艺主要有油头、煤头和气头路线。油头是主流，占比约 65%，但能耗高；煤头在中国发展较好，因煤炭资源丰富；气头通过轻 质裂解制得。煤制烯烃在油价上涨时具优势，油价低于 60 美元/桶时， 油头路线更具优势。 宝丰能源作为煤制烯烃龙头，单吨盈利优势明显，单吨毛利高于同业 1,500 元以上。2016-2024 年数据显示，其单吨成本比神华低 960 元， 比中煤低 1,440 元，成本优势来自原材料、燃料及动力、人工、折旧等 方面。 宝丰能源通过优化能耗和工艺改进，弥补了原材料采购价格上的劣势， 使其达到了与升华基本相当的水平。在折旧方面，采用 DMTO 三代技术， 单吨投资强度显著降低，内蒙古项目降至 1.6 万元每吨。 Q&A 宝丰能源近期的股价表现如何？其背后的核心原因是什么？ 国内产能方面，2023 年聚乙烯产能约 3,700 万吨，产量 2,800 万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing mixed performance, with the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index showing a slight decline, while the Petrochemical ETF has seen significant inflows and growth in net value over the past two years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 29, 2026, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index decreased by 0.27%, with stocks like Sankeshu and Zhongfu Shenying leading gains, while companies like Hebang Bio and China Petroleum faced declines [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) fell by 0.47%, with a latest price of 1.05 yuan and a trading volume of 2.12 billion yuan, indicating active market participation with a turnover rate of 17.99% [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 16 days, totaling 838 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 1.106 billion and a total scale of 1.166 billion yuan, marking a new high [2]. - Over the past two years, the net value of the Petrochemical ETF has increased by 66.80%, with the highest single-month return recorded at 15.86% and the longest consecutive monthly gain spanning 8 months, achieving a maximum increase of 41.6% [2]. - The average return during the rising months of the Petrochemical ETF is 5.25%, and as of January 23, 2026, the one-year Sharpe ratio stands at 2.22 [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Outlook - According to Guosen Securities, the petrochemical sector is strictly implementing capacity reduction and replacement requirements for new refining projects, focusing on upgrading old facilities and demonstrating new technologies [2]. - The refining capacity in China is approaching the policy threshold of 1 billion tons, leading to the gradual consolidation and elimination of smaller capacities, while larger refineries are expected to increase their market share, optimizing the industry structure [2]. - With limited growth in refined oil demand, the transition towards "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" will be essential for refineries [2]. Group 4: Key Stocks in the Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 56.73% of the index [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On January 28, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after a decline, recovering part of the previous day's losses. The closing price of J2605 was 1684 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the trading volume was 13,284 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1134.5 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%, and the trading volume was 714,203 lots [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coke 2605 contract continued to decline, but the J - value was significantly dull. The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coking coal 2605 contract showed a differentiated trend, with the J - value and K - value turning up and the D - value continuing to decline. The green columns of the MACD of the daily line of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts enlarged for the second consecutive trading day [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On January 28, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1455 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1483 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1640 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1420 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1430 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1660 yuan/ton, all with no change [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: The regulatory policy tightening led to the decline of metal prices with poor fundamentals. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the coal - coke prices rebounded after reaching a low [10]. - Fundamentals: Independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 5 weeks, and the loss amplitude has been expanding for 3 weeks. The coke production has decreased slightly for 2 consecutive weeks after increasing in the first 2 weeks of the year. The port coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the steel mill coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early October last year, while the coking enterprise coke inventory has increased after decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded since January 12, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically remained above 190,000 tons recently. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since the end of January last year, while the coking coal inventory of steel enterprises and ports has been relatively stable [10]. - Forecast: The news has a dual impact on the coal - coke futures prices, but the fundamentals change little, resulting in the relative stability of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise. It is advisable to try the strategy of buying for hedging or investment at low prices after the callback stabilizes [11]. Group 5: Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the total assets of central enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with a total profit of 2.5 trillion yuan, fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan, and tax payment of 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025. The investment in strategic emerging industries was 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.8% of the total investment [12]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12]. - The number and production capacity of open - pit coal mines in China will continue to increase, and their position in the energy supply system will become more important [12]. - By January 25, Wuhai Energy Company completed 1.2284 million tons of raw coal production and 1.0239 million tons of commercial coal sales, achieving a good start [13]. - Haohua Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 419 million yuan and 569 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 45.08% - 59.55% [13]. - Baofeng Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 11 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 73.57% - 89.34% [13]. - In 2025, the raw coal production of large - scale industrial enterprises in Ningxia was 10.28106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13]. - In 2025, Shaanxi added 30.95 million tons/year of coal production capacity, and 10.04 million kilowatts of renewable energy installed capacity [13]. - The iron ore "water - rail intermodal transport" business of Hubei Energy Jingzhou Coal Port was officially launched [13]. - Shanxi is promoting economic development and "major project construction year" work [13]. - Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding signed a contract to build 4 + 2 LNG carriers [14]. - Huaibei Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be about 1.495 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.21% [14]. - China National Energy Group opened a new coal supply channel to the central - China region [14]. - Northeast Power Grid's power consumption load reached a record high in late December 2025 [14]. - The daily power generation of Datang Huayin Electric Power's thermal power units reached a record high [14]. - Shanxi Coking expects to be profitable in 2025, but its net profit will decline by more than 50% year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's effective supply of coking coal was close to 480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The net import volume of coking coal decreased for the first time since 2021, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [14]. - In 2025, the freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port reached 42.433 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, a record high [14]. - The anti - dumping measures for stainless steel welded pipes originating from China in the Eurasian Economic Union will be extended to November 12, 2026 [14]. - Mongolia plans to produce 90 million tons of coal, 1.9 million tons of copper, and 9.4 million tons of iron ore in 2026 [14]. - India and the EU reached a free - trade agreement on January 27 [14]. - India's coal production target for the 2026 - 27 fiscal year is 1.31 billion tons [15]. - A barge collision accident in Indonesia may affect coal barge transportation [15]. - In 2025, Brazil's Vale's iron ore production reached 336 million tons, a new high since 2018 [15]. - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and oil [15]. - In 2025, South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal's coal export volume increased by 11% year - on - year to 57.66 million tons, a four - year high [15]. - India Oil Corporation plans to purchase at least 24 million barrels of Brazilian crude oil in the next two years [15].

1月28日，化工板块攻势不减。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后迅速拉 升，而后持续高位震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.2%，截至收盘，涨2.48%，收盘价续创2022年7 月以来新高。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）午后频现溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.42%，反 映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，纯碱、氨纶、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，和邦生物、浙江龙盛双双涨停， 卫星化学、华峰化学飙涨超8%，鲁西化工、桐昆股份、宝丰能源等亦涨幅居前。 消息面上，近日，工业和信息化部、国家发改委等五部门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导 意见》。自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电 器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步扩展至钢铁、有色金 属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。 方正证券指出，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57%, driven by a "price increase" theme, particularly in resource sectors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market saw over 3,600 stocks decline, with a total trading volume of 2.97 trillion yuan [1] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, led the market, with significant inflows of over 34.3 billion yuan into the sector [3] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) reached a new high, with an intraday price increase of 7.35% and a closing increase of 6.95%, attracting a net subscription of 1.4 million units [3][5] - The Chemical ETF (516020) also performed well, with a closing increase of 2.48%, marking a new high since July 2022 [7] - The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) rose by 1.75%, reflecting strong performance in the semiconductor sector [10] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Economic Factors - International gold prices have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][5] - The aluminum price has surged to a nearly four-year high, with spot gold reaching a new record of $5,283 per ounce [5] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions are expected to influence market dynamics, with a dovish stance likely to support the non-ferrous metals market [5] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a price surge, with a notable increase in prices for products like soda ash and nitrogen fertilizers, indicating a potential turning point for the sector [7][9] - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a price increase, with major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix raising prices significantly for memory products [10][13]

Group 1 - The chemical raw materials sector increased by 3.58% on January 28, with Satellite Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the chemical raw materials sector showed significant price increases, with Satellite Chemical rising by 8.86% to a closing price of 24.21 [1] Group 2 - The chemical raw materials sector experienced a net inflow of 870 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 673 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical had notable net inflows from main funds, with Baofeng Energy receiving 223 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed significant outflows in several stocks, including Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector has regained momentum, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a rise of 1.96% after a brief fluctuation at the opening [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhejiang Longsheng, which hit the daily limit, and other notable gainers such as Hebang Biotechnology, Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengyi Petrochemical, all showing significant increases [1][2] - The chemical ETF (516020) has attracted substantial investment, with net subscriptions of 1.422 billion yuan over the past five days and 2.14 billion yuan over the past ten days [1][2] Group 2 - Recent advancements in the basic chemical industry include breakthroughs in green refrigeration technology and key technologies for the industrialization of high-performance liquid crystal polyarylate fibers [3] - Looking ahead, the chemical industry is expected to experience low prosperity in 2025, with potential recovery in profitability driven by measures against "involution" and rapid growth in new materials due to downstream demand [3] - Investment opportunities in the large chemical sector are viewed positively, particularly in leading companies and sub-industries facing supply changes or significant pressure [3]

化工板块今日（1月28日）重拾攻势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后直 线拉升，盘中场内价格一度涨超2%，截至发稿，涨1.96%。 机构观点来源：①中国银河证券1月25日证券基础化工行业周报《化工品价格表现偏强，关注周期弹性 机会》。 成份股方面，纯碱、石化、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，浙江龙盛涨停，和邦生物大涨超 9%，卫星化学涨超7%，宝丰能源、恒逸石化双双涨超6%。 化工ETF联接A申购费率为：100万元以下，0.8%；100万元（含）-200万元，0.5%；200万元（含）以 上，每笔1000元。赎回费率为：7天以内，1.5%；7天（含）-180天，0.5%；180天（含）-以上，0%。 | | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | | | | | F9 盘用盘后 露出 九种 画线 工具 (0 2 > | | 44. TETF (D) | | | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Petrochemical Industry Index showing an increase, and significant inflows into the Petrochemical ETF, indicating strong investor interest and potential for growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 28, 2026, the China Petrochemical Industry Index rose by 0.54%, with key stocks like Zhejiang Longsheng hitting the daily limit up, and others such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Hubei Biopharma also seeing gains [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 0.39%, with a turnover rate of 4.34% during the trading session [1]. - Over the past 15 days, the Petrochemical ETF has attracted a total net inflow of 745 million yuan, reaching a record high of 1.018 billion shares and a total size of 1.045 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF has seen a net value increase of 62.39% over the past two years [1]. - The highest monthly return since inception was 15.86%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 8 months and a maximum cumulative increase of 41.60% [1]. - The average monthly return during the rising months was 5.25%, and the ETF outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 2.35% over the past year [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates that a turning point in policy and capital expenditure is evident, with the concept of "anti-involution" suggesting improved profitability and healthier long-term development for the industry [1]. - The chemical industry is entering a strategic window, characterized by the exit of high-cost marginal capacity overseas and a restructuring of the global chemical order [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petrochemical Industry Index accounted for 56.73% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical among others [2].

Group 1 - The global chemical industry is transitioning from "overcapacity" to "high-quality supply" by 2026, driven by national growth policies, marginal recovery in overseas demand, and the initiation of a restocking cycle, leading to a stabilization and rebound in the prices of basic chemicals and a significant improvement in industry profit expectations [1][3]. - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has become a core tool for investors to capitalize on the petrochemical industry's recovery, with the index it tracks rising by 15.10% in the past month and 51.39% over the past year as of January 26, 2026 [1][5]. - The ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with over 180 million yuan in net inflows in the past five days and over 270 million yuan in the past twenty days [1][5]. Group 2 - The "High-Quality Development" policy framework has been established, emphasizing the control of new refining capacities and the scientific regulation of ethylene and paraxylene production, marking a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality and efficiency improvements [3][4]. - A global restocking cycle has commenced, with widespread price increases for chemical products, including a 550 yuan/ton increase for butadiene and a 100 yuan/ton increase for bisphenol A, alongside sulfur prices reaching near ten-year highs [3][4]. - Major international companies like BASF and Dow have also raised prices for MDI/TDI, indicating a strong performance in the polyurethane market, supported by increased global oil demand projected at 950,000 barrels per day for 2026 [4][5]. Group 3 - Chemical companies are expected to report positive earnings, with Salt Lake Co. forecasting a net profit of 8.29 to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65%, and other companies like Juhua Co. and Cangge Mining also projecting significant profit increases [5][6]. - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with top holdings including major companies like Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum, covering over 56% of the index, thus providing a balanced exposure to both energy security and growth in new materials [5][6]. - The ETF has a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.20% per year, making it an ideal tool for participating in the current economic upturn in the chemical sector [5][6].