Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the petrochemical industry, specifically focusing on polyethylene, polypropylene, and coal prices, as well as the company's operations in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Price Correlation**: The cost of polyethylene is mainly influenced by propylene prices, while propylene and naphtha prices are linked to crude oil prices. However, the correlation has weakened over the past two years, with naphtha supply being squeezed due to reduced overall oil demand [1] 2. **Historical Price Relationship**: Historically, crude oil prices have been about three times that of coal prices. Crude oil serves as a functional substitute for coal in various applications, which explains this relationship [2] 3. **Impact of Oil Price Decline**: A decline in oil prices is expected to exert downward pressure on coal prices, but the overall impact on profit margins may be mitigated by a decrease in costs [3] 4. **Energy Security**: The importance of domestic energy production routes has been emphasized, highlighting the strategic significance of energy security in the current environment [4] 5. **Market Dynamics**: The short-term impact of oil price fluctuations on product prices is expected to be less significant than the impact on crude oil prices. The market for products is anticipated to remain stable despite potential pressures [5][6] 6. **Cost Advantages**: Inner Mongolia's production costs are approximately 300 RMB lower than those in other regions, with expectations for further optimization as production stabilizes [7][8] 7. **Sales and Market Reception**: The company has not observed significant market pressure from increased production capacity, as they have established downstream channels and signed contracts to ensure smooth sales [9] 8. **Export Trends**: Polypropylene exports have been increasing, particularly to Southeast Asia and South America, where local production capacity is limited [10] 9. **Domestic Production Capacity**: Despite new domestic production, the overall import levels have remained stable, indicating that domestic production has not significantly displaced imports due to increasing demand [11][12] 10. **Future Production Plans**: The company is preparing for the approval of projects in Xinjiang and has plans for significant production capacity expansion in Inner Mongolia over the next five years [14][15] 11. **Market Confidence**: The company expresses optimism about its financial performance in 2023, driven by the gradual release of profits from the Inner Mongolia project and stable product pricing [17] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The company is actively monitoring the impact of external factors such as tariffs and market demand on its operations and pricing strategies [1][9] - There is a focus on the need for continuous investment in production capabilities to maintain competitiveness against international suppliers [13] - The company is also considering potential share buyback or increase plans in response to market conditions [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with estimates ranging from 2.35 to 2.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 65.38% to 75.93% compared to the previous year and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.48% to 38.81% [7] - The Inner Mongolia project is gradually ramping up production, contributing to substantial improvements in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter performance [7] - The company plans to donate up to 600 million yuan to the Ningxia Yanbao Charity Foundation, which may affect reported earnings but is expected to result in higher actual operating performance [7] Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 55.372 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 67.9% [6] - Expected net profit for 2025 is 13.523 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 113.4% [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 36.0% by 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 24.6% [6] Project Developments - The Inner Mongolia project, with a total capacity of 3 million tons of coal-to-olefins, is set to become a major growth driver for the company in 2025 [7] - The Xinjiang project has received necessary environmental and safety approvals, opening up long-term growth opportunities for the company [7]

宝丰能源解释称，报告期内，公司内蒙古300万吨/年烯烃项目投入试生产，烯烃产品产销量同比显著增加；气化 原料煤、动力煤价格同比回落，烯烃产品利润率同比提升。 根据公司年报，上述300万吨/年烯烃项目包含260万吨/年煤制烯烃和配套40万吨/年植入绿氢耦合制烯烃项目。项 目投产分为3步：第一系列100万吨/年烯烃生产线于2024年11月投产，第二系列100万吨/年烯烃生产线于2025年1 月投产，第三系列100万吨/年烯烃生产线将于2025年3月底投产。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 李未来 北京报道 第一季度刚过，宝丰能源（600989.SH）就迫不及待地发布业绩预增公告。预计一季度实现净利润23.50亿元至 25.00亿元，与上年同期相比增加9.29亿元到10.79亿元，同比增长65.38%到75.93%。 约一个月前，宝丰能源发布了去年的业绩，总体表现良好，营业收入329.83亿元，同比增长13.21%，净利润63.38 亿元，同比增长12.16%。其中占营业收入比重较大的烯烃产品表现优异，毛利率达34.19%，比上年增加3.94个百 分点。 不过，随着业绩增长，宝丰能源债台 ...

内蒙项目逐步投产，业绩有望再上一个台阶。公司内蒙古 260 万吨/年煤制烯烃及配套40 万吨/年绿氢耦 合制烯烃项目建设稳步推进，第一系列 100 万吨/年烯烃生产线于2024 年11 月投产、第二系列100 万吨/ 年烯烃生产线于今年1 月投产，第三系列100 万吨/年烯烃生产线于今年3 月底投产，公司烯烃产能达到 520 万吨/年，预计随着内蒙项目产能逐步释放，公司业绩有望再上一个台阶。宁东四期烯烃项目场地 平整、地基强夯等工程按计划完成；新疆烯烃项目取得项目环评、安评等支持性文件专家评审意见。 事件：公司发布2025 年一季度业绩预告，预计2025Q1 实现归母净利润23.5-25亿元，同比增长 65.38%-75.93%，业绩同比大幅增长。 2025Q1 业绩同比大幅增长，内蒙项目放量贡献业绩。2025Q1 公司预计实现归母净利润23.5-25 亿元， 同比增长65.38%-75.93%，主要系公司内蒙古300万吨/年烯烃项目投入试生产，烯烃产品产销量同比显 著增加；气化原料煤、动力煤价格同比回落，烯烃产品利润率同比提升。据百川盈孚，当前聚乙烯、聚 丙烯市场均价分别为7568、7181 元/吨，25Q ...

证券代码：600989 证券简称：宝丰能源 公告编号：2025-014 宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利 润23.50亿元至25.00亿元，与上年同期相比增加9.29亿元到10.79亿元，同比增长65.38%到75.93%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年3月31日。 经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润23.50亿元至25.00亿元，与 上年同期相比增加9.29亿元到10.79亿元，同比增长65.38%到75.93%。 宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司 2025年一季度业绩预增公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： （二）业绩预告情况 报告期内，公司内蒙古300万吨/年烯烃项目投入试生产，烯烃产品产销量同比显著增加；气化原料煤、 动力煤价格同比回落，烯烃产品利润率同比提升。 四、风险提示 公司本次预计业绩是公司财务部门基于自身专业判断进行的初步核算，未经注册会计 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 29136 | 32983 | 55334 | 62189 | 66938 | | 同比增长 | 2% | 13% | 68% | 12% | 8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 6786 | 7828 | 12748 | 14879 | 16346 | | 同比增长 | -12% | 15% | 63% | 17% | 10% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 5651 | 6338 | 10747 | 12600 | 13876 | | 同比增长 | -10% | 12% | 70% | 17% | 10% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.77 | 0.86 | 1.47 | 1.72 | 1.89 | | PE | 20.1 | 17.9 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 8.2 | | PB | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | ...

证券分析师 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：15.48 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -13.42 | -10.74 | -11.17 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -6.90 | -5.45 | -8.71 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 3.《宝丰能源(600989 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：15.48 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -13.42 | -10.74 | -11.17 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -6.90 | -5.45 | -8.71 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 3.《宝丰能源(600989 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 一季度归母净利同环比提升，内蒙古烯烃逐步放量 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 基础化工·化学原料 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 余双雨 | 021-60375485 | yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523120001 | 事项： 事件：宝丰能源发布 2025 年一季度业绩预增公告。宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 预计 2025 年一季度实现归母净利润 23.50 亿元至 25.00 亿元，与上年同期相比增加 9.29 亿元到 10.79 亿 元，同比增长 65.38%到 75.93%。业绩预增的主要原因系内蒙古 300 万吨/年烯烃项目投入试生产，烯烃产 品产销量显著增加；气化原料煤、动力煤价格回落，烯烃产品利润率 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 一季度归母净利同环比提升，内蒙古烯烃逐步放量 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 基础化工·化学原料 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 余双雨 | 021-60375485 | yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523120001 | 事项： 事件：宝丰能源发布 2025 年一季度业绩预增公告。宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 预计 2025 年一季度实现归母净利润 23.50 亿元至 25.00 亿元，与上年同期相比增加 9.29 亿元到 10.79 亿 元，同比增长 65.38%到 75.93%。业绩预增的主要原因系内蒙古 300 万吨/年烯烃项目投入试生产，烯烃产 品产销量显著增加；气化原料煤、动力煤价格回落，烯烃产品利润率 ...