Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in China is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities likely to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the elevation of housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [5]. Industry Data Summary - **New Housing Transactions**: In the week of November 22-28, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction of 2.52 million square meters, a decrease of 1.7% week-on-week. Year-on-year, new housing transactions in November dropped by 35% [6][9]. - **Second-Hand Housing Transactions**: In the same week, 13 cities recorded a total of 1.16 million square meters in second-hand housing transactions, an increase of 4.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date, second-hand housing transactions have increased by 0.7% [14]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of November 28, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 89.846 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4%. The average months of inventory depletion was 23.3 months, a slight decrease [25]. Policy and News Tracking - **REITs Development**: The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of public REITs to include hotels and commercial offices. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot for commercial real estate REITs [34][36]. - **Local Housing Policies**: Qingdao has introduced housing subsidies for talent, offering up to 300,000 yuan for doctoral graduates. Fuzhou plans to provide subsidies for families with multiple children, while Beijing's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the housing supply system [34][35]. - **Land Market Activity**: In Shanghai, nine land parcels were sold for a total of 17.33 billion yuan, while Wuhan's land sales totaled approximately 3.97 billion yuan [34][39]. Company Dynamics - **New City Holdings**: Successfully issued private REITs with a scale of 616 million yuan, backed by the Wuyue Plaza asset [5]. - **Vanke**: Engaged in discussions regarding the extension of a bond due on December 15, 2025, with a remaining balance of 2 billion yuan [5][41]. - **China Jinmao**: Announced plans to sell 100% equity in Jinmao (Sanya) Tourism Co., Ltd. for 2.27 billion yuan [5][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The initiation of commercial real estate REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expected to significantly enhance the development potential of commercial real estate in China, with a market space exceeding 10 trillion yuan [2]. - The planned commercial real estate REITs will complement existing infrastructure REITs, creating a comprehensive public REITs market in China, where the market capitalization of holding-type real estate and infrastructure assets accounts for approximately 60% and 40% globally [2]. - The pilot program for commercial real estate REITs aims to broaden the underlying asset base to include office buildings and hotels, thereby expanding the scope of asset revitalization [2]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered market for commercial real estate asset securitization will facilitate direct financing for enterprises, optimize capital structures, and provide new options for strategic transformation from developers to asset managers [2]. - The commercial real estate REITs are seen as a crucial vehicle for constructing a new development model in the real estate sector, emphasizing the operational and sustainable development of existing assets [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report highlights two major opportunities: the elevation of housing policies and the favorable performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2]. - Recommended companies include: 1. Commercial Real Estate: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New Town Development 2. Quality Housing Enterprises: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Jinmao, Greentown China 3. Undervalued Recovery Enterprises: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments 4. Property Management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, China Overseas Property 5. Second-hand Housing Agencies: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. Market Context - The report notes that while the real estate sector in China is expected to continue facing challenges, core cities are likely to stabilize sooner, indicating a potential turning point for the market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [6][7][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully issued the first consumer private REITs in China, expanding its equity financing channels and establishing a virtuous cycle of investment, financing, management, and exit [4][6]. - The commercial real estate REITs pilot program initiated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to support the high-quality development of the commercial real estate sector [6]. - The company is transitioning from a developer to an asset manager, which is anticipated to enhance its long-term growth prospects [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 88,999 million - 2025: 59,785 million - 2026: 47,421 million - 2027: 44,086 million - The year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected to decline significantly, with a forecasted decrease of 32.8% in 2025 [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be: - 2025: 945 million - 2026: 1,113 million - 2027: 1,707 million - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve from 24.9% in 2025 to 34.7% in 2027 [5][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 1.5% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2027 [5][8]. Market Position and Performance - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company has opened 176 shopping malls with a total gross rental area of 1,630 million square meters and a rental rate of 97.8% [6]. - The company’s tax-adjusted rental income for the first ten months of 2025 was 109.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [6]. - The company’s ongoing focus on enhancing its commercial revenue and gross profit contribution is expected to support stable operations [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has issued the first consumer private REITs in China, expanding its equity financing channels and creating a virtuous cycle of investment, financing, management, and exit [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which is expected to support the high-quality development of the commercial real estate sector [6] - The company’s commercial mall revenue and gross profit share have been continuously increasing, indicating a stable operational performance [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 59,785 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 32.8% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 945 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.6% [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.9% in 2025 to 34.7% by 2027 [5] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is 88,999 million yuan, with a net profit of 752 million yuan [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company operates 176 malls as of Q3 2025, with a rental rate of 97.8% [6] - The company is transitioning from a developer to an asset manager, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth prospects [6] - The company’s debt levels are decreasing, with interest-bearing liabilities down by 7.3% year-on-year [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the commercial real estate REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [3]. Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs), which is expected to significantly enhance the valuation of quality commercial assets [3]. - The potential market for public REITs in China is estimated to exceed 10 trillion yuan, with the current market size at 219.9 billion yuan, of which commercial real estate accounts for 130.9 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth potential [3]. - The pilot program aims to create a multi-tiered market for commercial real estate asset securitization, which will help in revitalizing existing assets, mitigating risks, and facilitating corporate transformation [3]. - The new model of real estate development emphasizes the operational management of existing assets rather than new construction, aligning with the broader economic goals of sustainable development [3]. Summary by Sections Pilot Program Overview - The CSRC has launched a pilot for commercial real estate REITs, which will include a wider range of underlying assets such as office buildings and hotels, thereby expanding the asset revitalization scope [3]. Market Potential - The global REIT market is characterized by a significant proportion of holding-type real estate and infrastructure assets, with market values approximately 60% and 40% respectively [3]. - The report highlights that the commercial real estate REITs pilot will complement existing infrastructure REITs, forming a complete public REITs market in China [3]. Strategic Implications - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is seen as a critical step in transitioning the real estate sector from a developer-focused model to an asset management-oriented approach, which is essential for high-quality development [3]. - The report identifies two key opportunities: the favorable policy environment for quality housing and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a period of monetary easing [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New Town Development [3]. - Quality housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Jinmao, and Greentown China [3]. - Undervalued companies: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments [3]. - Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property [3]. - Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with attention to I Love My Home [3].

Group 1 - The company has approved a direct financing plan not exceeding RMB 20 billion (including equivalent foreign currency) through various financial instruments [2] - The financing methods include corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and other debt financing tools [2] - The board of directors is authorized to manage the specifics of the financing, including types of instruments, issuance conditions, and fundraising purposes [2] Group 2 - A real estate asset-backed securities plan managed by Guojin Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. is set to issue RMB 616 million [3] - All subscription funds have been transferred to the custody account, meeting the target fundraising scale as per the plan's documentation [3] - The asset-backed securities plan is confirmed to meet the establishment conditions and will officially commence on November 28, 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The company has approved a direct financing plan not exceeding RMB 20 billion, which includes various financing instruments such as corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, and REITs [2] - The board of directors is authorized to manage the specifics of the direct financing, including types of instruments, issuance conditions, and fundraising purposes [2] - The "Guojin Asset Management - Wuyue Plaza Holding-type Real Estate Asset-backed Special Plan" has been established with a total issuance scale of RMB 616 million, and it meets the conditions for establishment [3] Group 2 - The special plan's establishment was confirmed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and all subscription funds have been transferred to the plan's custody account [3] - The total number of asset-backed securities subscribed has reached the target set in the plan's documentation [3]

Core Points - New City Holdings announced plans for direct financing not exceeding 20 billion yuan [1] - The company will hold board and shareholder meetings on March 27 and May 26, 2025, to approve the financing proposal [1] - Guojin Securities Asset Management plans to issue a real estate asset-backed special plan with a scale of 616 million yuan [1] - As of the announcement date, all subscription funds have been transferred to the special plan's custody account, meeting the target fundraising scale [1] - The special plan officially established on November 28, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has successfully issued the first consumption-type real estate asset-backed securities (ABS) in China, marking a significant milestone in the industry with a total issuance scale of 616 million yuan and a debt portion of 410 million yuan, with a term of approximately 25 years [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset and Market Position - The underlying asset for the ABS is the Wuyue Plaza located in the core area of the Qingpu District, which benefits from a large customer base of over 400,000 residents from more than 160 surrounding communities [3]. - Since its opening in 2014, Wuyue Plaza has maintained a high occupancy rate and has seen steady growth in key metrics such as foot traffic, revenue, and profit, establishing itself as a regional commercial leader [3][4]. - New City Holdings has a strategic presence in 141 cities with 205 comprehensive projects, achieving a high occupancy rate of 97.7% across 176 operational and managed properties [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - In the first three quarters of the year, New City Holdings reported a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 10.511 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.82% [6]. - The total foot traffic at Wuyue Plaza reached 950 million visits, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with total sales exceeding 51.5 billion yuan, also up by 16.5% [6]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The issuance of the ABS aligns with New City Holdings' strategic shift from "real estate development and sales" to "asset operation," optimizing its asset-liability structure and enhancing the management of commercial real estate [4]. - The company has established a robust mechanism for continuous fundraising through the ABS, allowing for the acquisition of quality assets and promoting sustainable product development [5]. - The successful issuance of this ABS serves as a benchmark for private real estate companies, showcasing New City Holdings' leading capabilities in asset operation and innovative financing [4].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Wuyue Plaza Holding-type ABS" marks a significant milestone as it is the first consumer-oriented holding-type real estate ABS in China and the first issued by a private enterprise listed on A-shares [1] Group 1 - The project was successfully established on November 28, with an issuance scale of 616 million yuan [1] - The underlying asset for this ABS is the Wuyue Plaza shopping center project located in Qingpu, Shanghai [1] - The issuer of this ABS is Xincheng Holdings (601155) [1]