截至2月2日，国内主流车企2026年1月产销数据陆续披露。整体市场呈现"传统自主强势领跑、新势力普 遍承压"的鲜明格局：上汽、吉利、奇瑞等头部车企销量同比多实现20%以上增长，自主品牌座次因新 能源与出口表现差异出现重构。 与此同时，9家主流造车新势力则遭遇集体环比下滑。业内分析指出，短期政策切换、淡季效应等因素 扰动终端，但自主车企核心竞争力持续提升，新势力"马太效应"加剧，行业高质量发展的长期逻辑未 变。 ● 本报记者 龚梦泽 自主品牌座次重构 奇瑞集团凭借出口优势跃居前列，1月销售汽车20.03万辆，其中出口11.96万辆，同比增长48.1%，连续 9个月出口突破10万辆。新能源板块同样稳步推进，1月销量5.21万辆，形成"出口+新能源"双轮驱动格 局。旗下主要品牌中，奇瑞品牌销量13.56万辆，捷途品牌4.27万辆，星途、iCAR、智界品牌分别销售 5276辆、3419辆、4506辆，产品矩阵覆盖从主流到高端的全细分市场。 广汽集团自主板块爆发式增长，推动整体销量达11.66万辆，同比增长18.47%。这是昊铂埃安BU和传祺 BU完成组建后首次披露月度销量，成效立竿见影：昊铂埃安BU销量超2.16万辆 ...

2026年1月，在政策切换与年终促销透支的双重作用下，国内车市经历深度调整。 据乘联分会初步推算，1月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为180万辆，环比下降20.4%，同比微增0.3%。多家传统车 企和造车新品牌发布的销量数据也显示，今年1月汽车市场整体呈现销量环比下滑、同比上扬的局面。 上汽集团1月销量达32.74万辆，同比增长23.94%，为当月销量规模最高的车企。 吉利汽车集团1月乘用车销量达27.02万辆，同比增长1.29%，环比增长14.08%，成为目前唯一实现同环比正增长的 企业。 比亚迪1月销量国内下滑、海外增长。当月总销量约21万辆，其中海外市场销量超10万辆，同比增长51.47%。海 外市场的快速拓展正成为比亚迪重要的增长引擎。比亚迪品牌及公关部门总经理李云飞年初透露，公司计划在 2026年向中国以外地区销售130万辆汽车。 （文章来源：新京报） 新势力车企中，小米汽车1月交付量超3.9万辆，首次超越零跑汽车。赛力斯、极氪、蔚来1月销量同比分别增长 104.85%、99.7%和96.08%，成为当月表现亮眼的高增长梯队。 吉利汽车集团 14.08% 270167 1% 比亚迪 210051 -30. ...

Core Insights - The domestic automotive market in January 2026 experienced a significant adjustment due to policy changes and year-end promotions, with a retail market size of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.4% but a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] Group 1: Traditional Automakers - SAIC Motor Corporation achieved sales of 327,400 vehicles in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.94%, making it the top-selling automaker for the month [1] - Geely Automobile Group reported sales of 270,200 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 1.29% and a month-on-month increase of 14.08%, being the only company to show positive growth in both metrics [1] - BYD's total sales reached approximately 210,000 vehicles, with domestic sales declining but overseas sales exceeding 100,000 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.47% [1] - Chery Group's total sales across five brands exceeded 200,000 vehicles, showing a year-on-year decline of 10.7% [2] - GAC Group's sales were 116,600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 18.47% [2] - Great Wall Motors sold over 90,300 vehicles, achieving a year-on-year growth of 11.59% [2] Group 2: New Energy and Emerging Automakers - Xiaomi Automobile delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January, surpassing Leap Motor for the first time [2] - Emerging automakers such as Seres, Zeekr, and NIO reported year-on-year sales growth of 104.85%, 99.7%, and 96.08% respectively, indicating strong performance in the high-growth segment [2] - The sales data for several new energy vehicle companies showed significant fluctuations, with some experiencing declines while others achieved substantial growth [4]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In January 2026, major domestic automotive groups reported strong sales performance, with several companies achieving year-on-year growth in sales [2][5][19] - SAIC Motor Corporation sold 327,413 vehicles in January, marking a 23.9% increase year-on-year [5] - Geely Automobile's sales reached 270,167 units, a 1% increase year-on-year, with a 14% month-on-month growth [8] Group 2: Brand-Specific Performance - SAIC's self-owned brands accounted for 65.3% of total sales, with a 39.6% increase in sales of self-owned brands [5] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 124,252 units, representing 46% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 3% [8][9] - BYD's total new energy vehicle sales were 210,051 units, a decline of 30.11% year-on-year, but overseas sales surged by 51.47% [12] Group 3: Export and Overseas Market Growth - Chery Group maintained its position as the top exporter of Chinese automobiles, with exports reaching 119,605 units, a year-on-year increase of 48.1% [15] - SAIC's overseas sales reached 105,000 units, a 51.7% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growing importance of international markets [6] - BYD's overseas market expansion is becoming a significant growth driver, with nearly half of its total sales coming from exports [12] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - Geely plans to launch 1-2 new products each quarter in 2026, aiming for an annual sales target of 3.45 million units [9] - GAC Group has set ambitious overseas sales targets for 2026, aiming for 250,000 units, with a goal of reaching 100,000 units in the Asia-Pacific market by 2027 [19] - Dongfeng Motor plans to introduce five new models in 2026 to support its growth in the new energy sector [24]

2026 年 2 月 2 日 公司研究 4Q25 盈利承压，关注高端化+全球化推进 ——长城汽车（601633.SH、2333.HK）2025 年业绩快报点评 要点 2025 年业绩快报披露，4Q25 低于预期：2025 年公司营业收入同比+10.2%至 2,227.9 亿元，归母净利润同比-21.7%至 99.1 亿元，扣非后归母净利润同比 -36.5%至 61.6 亿元；其中，4Q25 公司收入同比+15.5%/环比+13.0%至 692.1 亿元，归母净利润同比-43.5%/环比-44.4%至 12.8 亿元，扣非后归母净利润同 比-49.4%/环比-63.9%至 6.8 亿元。我们测算，2025 年公司扣非后单车盈利同 比-40.8%至 0.47 万元，4Q25 扣非后单车盈利同比-52.1%/环比-68.2%至 0.17 万元。4Q25 盈利环比下降主要受年终奖计提+报废税递延导致。 高端化战略成果显现，品牌价值稳步提升：2025 年公司汽车销量同比+7.3%至 132.4 万辆，新能源汽车销量同比+25.4%至 40.4 万辆（渗透率同比+4.4pcts 至 30.5%）；4Q25 公司汽车销量同 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights significant target price increases for several companies, with 百利天恒 leading at 375.97%, followed by 泽璟制药 at 88.56% and 长城汽车 at 83.66% [1][2]. Target Price Increases - 百利天恒 (CITIC Securities) has a target price increase of 375.97%, with a latest price of 1322.00 CNY [2]. - 泽璟制药 (Huatai Securities) shows a target price increase of 88.56%, with a latest price of 166.16 CNY [2]. - 长城汽车 (CITIC Securities) has a target price increase of 83.66%, with a latest price of 38.00 CNY [2]. - Other notable increases include 工业富联 (Huatai Securities) at 73.31% and 宁德时代 (Dongwu Securities) at 71.71% [2]. Broker Recommendations - A total of 265 companies received broker recommendations from January 26 to February 1, with 青岛银行 receiving the highest number at 8 recommendations [3]. - 先导智能 and 万辰集团 each received 5 recommendations [3]. Rating Adjustments - During the same period, 8 companies had their ratings upgraded, including 上海家化 (Guolian Minsheng Securities) from "Hold" to "Recommend" [4]. - 中兴通讯 (Dongguan Securities) was upgraded from "Cautious Recommend" to "Buy" [4]. - 特变电工 (Huatai Securities) was upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" [4]. Rating Downgrades - Two companies had their ratings downgraded, including 金辰股份 (Zheshang Securities) from "Buy" to "Hold" [5]. - 华设集团 (Guotai Junan Securities) was downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" [5]. First Coverage - A total of 75 instances of first coverage were reported, with 陕西旅游 receiving a "Outperform Industry" rating from China International Capital Corporation [6]. - 柏楚电子 was rated "Hold" by Guotai Junan Securities, and 博汇纸业 received a "Buy" rating from Guohai Securities [6].

Investment Highlights - The article emphasizes a positive outlook for the passenger car sector, anticipating a recovery in demand in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of industry subsidy policies [3][8] - For the entire year, the focus is on domestic companies that are resilient to policy fluctuations and those with strong export capabilities, recommending companies like JAC Motors and Geely [3][8] Commercial Vehicle Insights - In 2025, the wholesale volume of heavy trucks reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with domestic sales at 799,000 units, up 32.8% [4][26] - The article forecasts that heavy truck domestic sales in 2026 could reach 800,000 to 850,000 units, a 3% increase year-on-year, and continues to recommend leading companies in the sector [4][26] Bus Sector Update - The article notes that the 2026 vehicle replacement policy exceeded expectations, with a projected bus sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [5][25] - It highlights the importance of focusing on leading bus manufacturers such as Yutong and King Long [5][25] Motorcycle Market Outlook - The motorcycle industry is expected to see total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to reach 1.26 million units, up 31% [5][23] - The article recommends leading motorcycle manufacturers like Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [5][23] Performance Metrics - The article provides insights into the performance of various vehicle segments, noting that the passenger car index decreased by 4.8% this week, while the commercial vehicle index increased by 2.2% [12][18] - Key individual stock performances are highlighted, with NIO showing a 3.2% increase and Seres experiencing an 11.8% decline [12][18]

Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]

| | | （一）可转债发行上市概况 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准长城汽车股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司 债券的批复》（证监许可[2021]1353号）核准，长城汽车股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"或"本公司"）于2021年6月10日公开发行3,500万张可转换公司债券，每张面值100 元，发行总额35亿元。 可转债转股情况：2026年1月1日至2026年1月31日期间，共有6,000元"长汽转 债"已转换成公司股票，转股数为153股。自2021年12月17日至2026年1月31日， 累计共有4,953,000元"长汽转债"已转换为公司股票，累计转股数为129,880 股，占可转债转股前公司已发行股份总额的0.0014%。 未转股 可转债情 况：截至2026 年 1月31日，尚 未转股的 可转债金额 为 3,495,046,000元，占可转债发行总量的99.8585%。 2023年股票期权激励计划首次授予期权行权结果：2023年股票期权激励计划首 次授予第一个行权期可行权股票期权数量为18,948,783股，行权方式为自主行 权，行权期为2025年5月12日至2026年1月25日。2026年1月行权0股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance forecast of various A-share listed companies, indicating a significant divergence in earnings growth across different sectors, driven by technological advancements, cost control, and industry cycles [4][62]. Group 1: Companies with Strong Earnings Growth - **New Yisheng (300502.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86%, driven by rising demand for high-speed optical modules due to global computing power investments [6]. - **Han's Laser (688256.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion, turning from a loss of 0.452 billion in the previous year, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI computing power [8]. - **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17%, supported by strong investment in computing infrastructure [10]. - **Runze Technology (300442.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance [12]. - **CITIC Securities (601995.SH)**: Expected net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%, driven by steady growth in core business segments [15]. Group 2: Companies with Earnings Below Expectations - **Great Wall Motors (601633.SH)**: Expected net profit of 9.912 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, impacted by increased marketing expenses and intense competition [34]. - **GAC Group (601238.SH)**: Expected net profit of -8 billion to -9 billion, turning from a profit of 0.824 billion in the previous year, due to fierce competition and adjustments in product structure [36]. - **GCL-Poly Energy (002506.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -0.89 billion to -1.29 billion, turning from a profit of 0.068 billion, affected by structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry [38]. - **Boli Tianheng (688506.SH)**: Expected net profit of -1.1 billion, turning from a profit of 3.708 billion, due to increased R&D expenses [39]. - **Daiyue City (000031.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -2.7 billion to -2.1 billion, continuing losses from the previous year, influenced by asset impairment provisions [42]. Group 3: Industry Trends - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Industries driven by technology, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, are showing strong growth, with companies like New Yisheng and Rongchang Bio leading the way [62][63]. - **Cost Control**: The energy and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a clear divide, with companies like Datang Power benefiting from lower coal prices and effective cost management [64]. - **Downward Pressure from Industry Cycles**: The real estate, agriculture, and photovoltaic sectors are under significant pressure, with companies like Vanke and Tianbang Food facing substantial earnings declines [65][66].