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2026年2月大类资产配置月报:核心叙事的变与不变-20260203
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-02-03 11:31
- The report introduces a **macro scoring model** that evaluates macroeconomic factors to guide asset allocation. The model's construction involves scoring domestic and global factors such as credit, inflation, and monetary cycles. For February, the model indicates a positive outlook for A-shares, U.S. equities, copper, and crude oil, while downgrading the timing view on 10-year bonds to neutral[29][31][32] - A **U.S. equity timing model** is presented, which monitors indicators like economic momentum and fiscal dependency. The model highlights that the U.S. economy's reduced reliance on fiscal stimulus and improved internal dynamics strengthen the bullish outlook for U.S. equities[33][34][36] - The **gold timing model** suggests a shift from trend-based to range-bound thinking due to microstructural rebalancing and signs of improving U.S. economic momentum. The latest gold timing indicator value is -0.45, showing slight improvement from the previous month[38][41][42] - The **crude oil timing model** reflects a cautious stance, with the oil sentiment index at -0.08, remaining below the neutral threshold. The model attributes this to a lack of strong fundamental drivers for a sustained upward trend in oil prices[39][42][45] - The **asset allocation strategy** uses quantitative signals to allocate risk budgets and adjusts macro risk exposures based on macro factor systems. The strategy achieved a 2.7% return in January, a 10.9% return over the past year, and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%[6][42][43] - The report provides the **optimized asset allocation proportions** for February, with notable changes including an increase in allocations to the CSI 800 (6.7%) and S&P 500 (9.9%), while reducing allocations to 10-year bonds (63.6%) and copper (3.2%)[46]
监管频频出手!逾10家券商年内收罚单,经纪业务成重灾区
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2026-02-03 08:39
Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is intensifying its regulatory scrutiny on brokerage firms, maintaining a high-pressure stance against illegal activities in the capital market, with a focus on ensuring long-term healthy development [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - In January, 14 brokerage firms and their branches received regulatory penalties, primarily related to margin trading, brokerage, and investment banking violations [1]. - Jianghai Securities, Financial Street Securities, and Xinda Securities were among the firms that received the most penalties [1]. - The regulatory crackdown is seen as beneficial for the long-term health of the capital market [1]. Group 2: Specific Violations - Brokerage firms faced the highest number of penalties in the brokerage business sector, with Jianghai Securities' Harbin Hongjun Street branch receiving warnings for inadequate compliance in client follow-up and management issues [2]. - Jianghai Securities was also penalized for third-party involvement in investor solicitation and for employing unqualified personnel in securities-related roles [2]. - Other firms like Hualin Securities and Zheshang Securities were penalized for issues related to complaint handling and compliance in transaction audits, respectively [3]. Group 3: Margin Trading and Investment Banking Violations - Margin trading violations have drawn regulatory attention, with Xinda Securities' Wenzhou branch penalized for insufficient control measures and failure to monitor abnormal trading behaviors [4]. - Jinyuan Unified Securities was the only firm penalized for investment banking violations, failing to fulfill its supervisory duties regarding a client’s compliance and information disclosure [4]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued warnings to sponsors from China International Capital Corporation for inadequate due diligence in an IPO project [5]. Group 4: Overall Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment for the securities industry has become increasingly stringent, with over 300 penalties issued last year affecting nearly 80 brokerage firms, particularly in the brokerage business sector [5].
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持东鹏饮料“买入”评级,看好公司平台化布局
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-02-03 06:30
Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned for clear growth in 2026, driven by its platform layout and strong market position in the energy drink sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage is the leading player in the domestic energy drink market, with stable growth in its energy drink segment and expansion in new product categories [1] - The company benefits from scale advantages and cost optimization, which are expected to drive performance beyond expectations [1] Group 2: Market Comparison - The report references Nongfu Spring, a comparable industry leader, which has a solid and steady growth in its mineral water business and a rapidly growing sugar-free tea segment [1] - Nongfu Spring's 2026 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 29 times, indicating a strong market position [1] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage's leading position in functional drinks and the high growth potential of its electrolyte water segment suggest a continuously improving industry ceiling [1] - The company is projected to achieve a 2026 valuation of 30 times earnings, corresponding to a market value of 172.5 billion, indicating a potential upside of around 30% [1] - The recommendation for Dongpeng Beverage is to maintain a "buy" rating [1]
白严离任浙商证券资管旗下7只基金
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-02-02 08:03
Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Zheshang Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. announced the departure of fund manager Bai Yan, who has been replaced by Cheng Jiawei for several funds [1][4][5][6]. Fund Performance Summary - **Zheshang Huijin Monthly Enjoy 30-Day Rolling Holding Short-Debt A/C**: Established on November 19, 2021, with a year-to-date return of 0.38% and a cumulative net value of 1.1483 yuan [1]. - **Zheshang Huijin Junhong Two-Year Open-End Bond A/C**: Established on October 30, 2020, with a year-to-date return of 0.08% and a cumulative net value of 1.1244 yuan [2]. - **Zheshang Huijin Jinxuan Money Market Fund**: Established on August 26, 2022, with a cumulative return of 4.37% [2]. - **Zheshang Huijin Juying Short-Debt A/C**: Established on June 25, 2019, with a year-to-date return of 0.15% and a cumulative net value of 1.1751 yuan [2]. - **Zheshang Huijin Juyi One-Year Open-End Bond A/C**: Established on August 1, 2016, with a year-to-date return of 0.22% and a cumulative net value of 1.3731 yuan [3]. Fund Manager Changes - Bai Yan has been dismissed as the fund manager for multiple funds, including Zheshang Huijin Monthly Enjoy, Zheshang Huijin Junhong, Zheshang Huijin Juying, and Zheshang Huijin Juyi [4][5][6]. - Cheng Jiawei has been appointed as the new fund manager for the aforementioned funds [4][6].
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持中际联合“买入”评级,2025年报业绩预告符合预期
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-02 06:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Zhongji United's 2025 performance forecast meets expectations, with an anticipated year-on-year growth of 59%-75% in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company is enhancing its order structure and optimizing customer coverage and product recognition in response to the rapid growth of the wind power industry, leading to a continuous increase in order scale [1] - Internally, the company is strengthening its capabilities through various measures such as optimizing product structure, technical breakthroughs, process improvements, and cost reduction, which further enhances its profitability [1] Group 2 - The company is positioned as a leader in high-altitude safety equipment for wind power operations, benefiting from the high demand in the domestic wind power market and expanding into overseas and multiple sectors, which opens up growth opportunities [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its future performance and market position [1]
浙商证券:维持中际联合“买入”评级,2025年报业绩预告符合预期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 06:14
Core Viewpoint - Zhongji United's 2025 performance forecast aligns with expectations, projecting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 59%-75% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is experiencing continuous growth in order scale due to optimized order structure and enhanced customer coverage and product recognition [1] - Internal capability building is strengthened through various measures such as product structure optimization, technical breakthroughs, process improvements, and cost reduction, leading to a decrease in overall comprehensive cost rate and further enhancement of profitability [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The company is positioned as a leader in high-altitude safety equipment for wind power operations, benefiting from the high prosperity of the domestic wind power market and expansion into overseas and multiple sectors, which opens up growth opportunities [1]
完美世界股价跌5.1%,浙商证券资管旗下1只基金重仓,持有3.26万股浮亏损失3.13万元
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2026-02-02 05:52
截至发稿,陈顾君累计任职时间6年15天,现任基金资产总规模4.57亿元,任职期间最佳基金回报 47.96%, 任职期间最差基金回报-7.57%。 声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布,不代表新浪财经观点,任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考,不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问,请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑:小浪快报 数据显示,浙商证券资管旗下1只基金重仓完美世界。浙商汇金新兴消费(009527)四季度持有股数 3.26万股,占基金净值比例为2.29%,位居第九大重仓股。根据测算,今日浮亏损失约3.13万元。 浙商汇金新兴消费(009527)成立日期2020年5月29日,最新规模2338.1万。今年以来收益3.12%,同类 排名5847/9000;近一年收益23.03%,同类排名5054/8193;成立以来收益19.07%。 浙商汇金新兴消费(009527)基金经理为陈顾君。 2月2日,完美世界跌5.1%,截至发稿,报17.88元/股,成交7.04亿元,换手率2.09%,总市值346.87亿 元。 资料显示,完美世界股份有限公司位于北京 ...
浙商证券:以第一性原理思考当前行情
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-31 14:31
Core Viewpoints - The current bond market is expected to remain volatile, with a possibility of the 10-year government bond yield breaking below 1.80%, but the downward space may be limited without substantial positive factors like reserve requirement ratio cuts or increased trading volume of government bonds [3][11][15] - The equity market maintains an optimistic outlook, with calendar effects likely benefiting small-cap stocks and sustaining strong performance [3][8][15] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a slight strengthening trend recently, driven by renewed expectations of loose monetary policy, but the performance has been asymmetric, with mid to long-term bonds performing better while ultra-long 20-year and 30-year bond yields have risen [4][12] - A recalibration of perceptions regarding the bond market is necessary, as bonds may now be viewed as weak assets despite some positive catalysts, contrasting with the previous bull market from 2021 to early 2025 [4][12] - The 30-year bond's recognition needs to be reassessed, as its performance has been tied to specific macroeconomic factors, and the current yield spread is at a relatively low level historically [5][13] - The difficulty in capturing market waves has increased, with rapid pricing adjustments occurring within 1-2 trading days, necessitating enhanced trading capabilities [5][12] February Calendar Effects - The bond market in February has historically shown mixed performance, with 4 years of gains and 6 years of losses from 2016 to 2025, influenced by cash demand during the Spring Festival [6][14] - The equity market in February exhibits a style divergence favoring small-cap stocks, driven by a lack of verifiable financial data and a shift in market logic towards future growth narratives [7][14] - The timing of the Spring Festival can significantly impact February's equity market performance, with later festivals correlating with stronger market movements due to the convergence of seasonal and policy factors [7][14]
浙商证券(601878) - 浙商证券股份有限公司第四届董事会第四十一次会议决议公告
2026-01-30 08:30
本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 浙商证券股份有限公司(以下简称"浙商证券"或"公司")第四届董事会 第四十一次会议于 2026 年 1 月 23 日以书面方式通知全体董事,于 1 月 27 日发 出补充通知,会议于 2026 年 1 月 30 日以通讯表决方式召开。会议应出席董事 9 人,实际出席董事 9 人。会议的召开符合《公司法》和《公司章程》规定。 经审议,作出决议如下: 证券代码:601878 证券简称:浙商证券 公告编号:2026-009 浙商证券股份有限公司 第四届董事会第四十一次会议决议公告 三、审议通过《关于单独设立公司巡查办公室的方案的议案》 表决结果:9 票同意,0 票反对,0 票弃权。 特此公告。 浙商证券股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 1 月 31 日 一、审议通过《关于经理层 2022-2024 任期激励核定的议案》 表决结果:9 票同意,0 票反对,0 票弃权。 本议案提交董事会前已经公司董事会提名与薪酬委员会审议通过。 二、审议通过《关于将"纪检监察室"更名为"纪检室"并明 ...
浙商汇金量化精选混合增聘陈顾君
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-01-30 08:17
中国经济网北京1月30日讯 昨日,浙商证券资产管理有限公司公告,浙商汇金量化精选混合增聘陈 顾君。 浙商汇金量化精选混合A/C成立于2019年03月25日和2025年09月30日,截至2026年01月29日,其今 年来收益率为2.50%、2.47%,成立来收益率为71.29%、2.46%,累计净值为1.7129元、1.7110元。 | 基金名称 | 浙商汇金量化精选灵活配置混合型证券投资基 | | --- | --- | | | 金 | | 基金简称 | 浙商汇金量化精选混合 | | 基金主代码 | 006449 | | 基金管理人名称 | 浙江浙商证券资产管理有限公司 | | 公告依据 | 《证券投资基金信息披露管理办法》 | | 基金经理变更类型 | 增聘基金经理 | | 新任基金经理姓名 | 陈顾君 | | 共同管理本基金的其他基 | 庞雅菁 | | 金经理姓名 | | (责任编辑:康博) 陈顾君历任上海海通证券资产管理有限公司量化研究员,曾任浙江浙商证券资产管理有限公司量化 研究员、基金经理助理,现任基金经理。 ...