Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's resilience in foreign trade amidst global trade headwinds, highlighting significant changes in the economic landscape compared to previous trade conflicts, particularly the 2018 trade war [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Resilience and Transformation - China's economic dependence on foreign trade has significantly decreased, with exports to the U.S. dropping to 14.7% and imports from the U.S. falling to 6.3%, indicating a reduced marginal impact from tariffs [2]. - The country has made substantial advancements in technology and military industries, enhancing its self-sufficiency and systemic risk defense capabilities [2]. - Domestic demand policies are being expanded, with a focus on releasing service consumption potential and addressing real estate challenges, which are expected to mitigate external demand fluctuations [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The A-share market has shown resilience compared to the 2018 trade war, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a 6% drop during initial tariff announcements, while the Nasdaq fell by 13% [3]. - Following the initial shock, both Chinese and U.S. markets began to recover, driven by diminishing marginal impacts of tariff increases and effective financial market stabilization measures [3]. - Investors are becoming resistant to tariff-related "numerical games," with market pricing increasingly reflecting internal economic dynamics rather than external shocks [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - Five strategic responses to the tariff challenges have been identified: extraordinary expansion of domestic demand, expectations of monetary easing, accelerated fiscal spending, optimization of real estate policies, and targeted stabilization measures [4]. - Three main investment themes have emerged: technology self-sufficiency and industrial trends (semiconductors, rare earths, military), domestic demand recovery (consumer electronics, cultural tourism, logistics), and dividend assets (transportation, electricity, banking) [4]. - The article suggests that dividend assets are not merely defensive but can also provide growth potential, with consumer and financial dividend assets being closely tied to stable growth policies [4]. Group 4: Asset Allocation and Global Context - The article discusses a new paradigm in asset allocation, where gold is seen as a core hedge against credit risks, with optimistic price targets reaching $3,500 per ounce [5]. - The relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold is shifting, with gold gaining importance as a hedge against dollar credit issues [5]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the AH premium index for Hong Kong stocks, suggesting that a breakthrough could attract cross-market capital [5]. Group 5: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - Initiatives like the Belt and Road and domestic circulation are viewed as proactive strategies to mitigate geopolitical risks rather than mere defensive measures [6]. - The article posits that the upcoming 90-day tariff exemption period represents a psychological game, with potential policy fluctuations affecting risk appetite [6]. - A new consensus is forming around themes of industrial chain restructuring, domestic demand transformation, and technological breakthroughs, which are expected to overshadow short-term market noise [6].

4月11日，浙商证券（601878）股份有限公司（以下简称"浙商证券"）2024年年度报告发布，公司研究 业务表现亮眼。 具体来看，2024年浙商证券的品牌影响力跻身行业前十，客户总数同比增长近10%。在此前公布的2024 年券商公募基金分仓佣金收入排行榜单中，浙商证券也从第16位跃升至第10位，实现了连续五年上升。 在行业减费让利、基金分仓佣金收入下降的背景下，浙商证券研究业务缘何屡战屡进？随着浙商证券研 究事业部的正式官宣，卖方研究转型的路径清晰可见。 产业服务升维 财富研究扬帆 在2022年底的第二十届新财富最佳分析师榜单发布会上，邱冠华成为首位新财富银行业钻石分析师，他 表示，浙商证券研究所将持续由今日"优质成长"向明日"大蓝筹"迈进，全力打造"全国一流钻石研究 所"。随后，浙商证券研究所官宣战略升级，开启研究新篇章。 在此期间，浙商证券在卖方研究业务的基础上，重点进行了产业研究的深度拓展和财富赋能的特色探 索。2023年2月，来自银行、银行理财子公司、公募基金、私募基金的近百位高管相聚嘉兴，浙商证券 财富管理新一届管理团队首度正式公开亮相并发表财富管理战略合作构想，"研究+财富"的战略构想浮 出水面 ...

Core Insights - Zhejiang Securities reported a total operating revenue of 15.816 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.17% to 1.932 billion yuan [1][4] - The company's revenue is heavily reliant on its futures business, which accounted for over 60% of total revenue, but saw a decline of 17.89% in 2024 [6][7] - The investment banking segment also faced challenges, with revenue dropping by 20.93% [7] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For 2024, Zhejiang Securities achieved operating revenue of 15.816 billion yuan, down 10.33% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.932 billion yuan, up 10.17% [1][4] - The total assets of the company at the end of 2024 reached 154.086 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.88% [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.92 billion yuan, a decline of 21.86% year-on-year but a slight increase of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The net profit for Q4 was 667 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 57.61% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 38.78% [4] Business Segment Performance - The futures business generated revenue of 10.365 billion yuan in 2024, down 17.89% from the previous year [6] - The investment banking business reported revenue of 677 million yuan, a decrease of 20.93%, with a gross margin of 33.84%, down 5.89 percentage points [7] - The company's net commission income was 3.611 billion yuan, accounting for 22.83% of total revenue, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 6.21% [7] Dividend Distribution - Zhejiang Securities proposed a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling 454 million yuan, which, combined with mid-year dividends, brings the total cash dividends for 2024 to 680 million yuan, representing 35.21% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8][9]

4月10日晚，浙商证券发布2024年报。2024年，该公司实现营收158.16亿元，同比下降10.33%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为19.32亿元，同比增长 10.17%。公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1.00元（含税），共派发现金红利约4.54亿元（含税）。 | | | | | 単位: 元 巾种:人民巾 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要会计数据 | 2024年 | 2023年 | 本期比 上年同 期增减 | 2022年 | | 营业收入 | 15,815,963,055,09 | 17,638,225,323,48 | (%) -10. 33 | 16, 814, 110, 329. 13 | | 归属于母公司 股东的净利润 | 1.931.881.941.85 | 1.753.537.425.31 | 10. 17 | 1.654.188.226.61 | | 归属于母公司 股东的扣除非 经常性损益的 | 1.911.629,982.52 | 1.741.915,996.61 | 9.74 | 1.638.053.543.56 | | 浄利润 | | | ...

证券代码：601878 证券简称：浙商证券 公告编号：2025-026 2025 年 4 月 11 日，本公司按期兑付了本期短期融资券本息共计人民币 2,022,438,356.16 元。 特此公告。 浙商证券股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 4 月 15 日 浙商证券股份有限公司 2024 年度第三期短期融资券兑付完成公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 浙商证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 11 日成功 发行了浙商证券股份有限公司 2024 年度第三期短期融资券（以下简称"本期短 期融资券"），本期短期融资券发行规模为人民币 20 亿元，票面利率为 2.25%， 短期融资券期限为 182 天，兑付日期为 2025 年 4 月 11 日（详见本公司于 2024 年 10 月 15 日登载于上海证券交易所网站 www.sse.com.cn 的《浙商证券股份有限 公司 2024 年度第三期短期融资券发行结果公告》）。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 拆分来看：1）公司自营业务收入（公允价值变动+投资净收益-联营合营企业 投资净收益）合计为 17.4 亿元，单季度为 7.1 亿元，环比+2.5 亿元。单季度 自营收益率为 2%，环比+0.7pct，同比+1.6pct。 对比来看，单季度期间主动型股票型基金平均收益率为+5.32%，环比-6.61pct， 同比+9.68pct。纯债基金平均收益率为+1.43%。环比+1.19pct，同比+0.65pct。 2）信用业务：公司利息收入为 25.1 亿元，单季度为 7.1 亿元，环比+1.1 亿元。 两融业务规模为 242 亿元，环比+62.2 亿元。两融市占率为 1.3%，同比+0.08pct。 3）质押业务：买入返售金融资产余额为 55 亿元，环比-14.9 亿元。 公司研究 浙商证券（601878）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 轻资本业务提升，受市场影响杠杆有所回落 目标价：12.25 元 事项： 点评： ❖ 全年 ROE 同比降低，杠杆回落明显。从其他负债结构变化来看，公司衍生品 业务能力较强，受市场变化影响，衍生品业务规模有所回落。公司报告期内 ROE 为 5.5%，同比-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities predicts that under a relatively stable domestic demand environment, the revenue and profit growth of major brand apparel leaders are expected to improve on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1 2025, despite fluctuations in external demand [1][2] Group 1: Brand Apparel - Retail performance for apparel, footwear, and textiles showed a cumulative growth of 0.3% in 2024 and 3.3% in January-February 2025, driven by consumer confidence boosted by consumption promotion policies [2] - Haier's revenue is expected to grow positively in Q1 2025 due to benefits from FCC and JD Outlet projects, while Semir Apparel is anticipated to see slower profit growth due to ongoing channel investments [2] - In the sports fashion segment, BiYin is expected to lead revenue growth in Q1 2025, although new brand KC's profit growth is projected to lag behind revenue [2] Group 2: Textile Manufacturing - Despite a high base for Q1 2025 manufacturing orders, leading manufacturers are expected to maintain positive order growth, with most manufacturers having a stable demand outlook [4] - Companies like Huali Group, Kairun Co., and Taihua New Materials are expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in Q1 2025, while others like Weixing Co. and Jiasheng Group are projected to maintain single-digit revenue growth [4] - Profit performance may vary, with some companies experiencing a decline in net profit margins due to new factory launches, while most are expected to maintain stable or slightly improved margins [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on industry leaders with positive operational changes or attractive valuations, such as Haier, Weiguan Medical, Semir Apparel, and others [3] - Hong Kong-listed sports and functional apparel companies are expected to show resilience, with recommendations for Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Li Ning [3] - High-dividend home textile leaders supported by clear subsidy policies include Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles [3]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 浙商证券（601878） 2024 年报点评：自营业务驱动业绩增长，费 类业务小幅收缩 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,638 | 15,816 | 17,032 | 17,808 | 18,620 | | 同比（%） | 4.90% | -10.33% | 7.69% | 4.55% | 4.56% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,754 | 1,932 | 2,165 | 2,298 | 2,541 | | 同比（%） | 6.01% | 10.17% | 12.05% | 6.16% | 10.56% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.66 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 23.13 | 21.71 | 22.48 | 17.96 | 16.24 | [Table_Tag] ...

买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,638 | 15,816 | 17,032 | 17,808 | 18,620 | | 同比（%） | 4.90% | -10.33% | 7.69% | 4.55% | 4.56% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,754 | 1,932 | 2,165 | 2,298 | 2,541 | | 同比（%） | 6.01% | 10.17% | 12.05% | 6.16% | 10.56% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.66 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 23.13 | 21.71 | 22.48 | 17.96 | 16.24 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 浙商证券（601878） 2024 年报点评 ...

非银金融 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 上 市 公 司 | 市场数据： 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 10.64 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 15.87/9.72 | | 市净率 | 1.8 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 1.79 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 48,665 | | 3,223.64/9,754.64 上证指数/深证成指 | | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.69 | | 资产负债率% | 76.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 4,574/4,574 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 2025 年 04 月 11 日 浙商证券 (601878) ——自营股债再平衡，收购国都再进一步 事件：4/10，浙商证券披露 2024 年年报，业绩与快报一致。2024 公司实现营收 158.2 亿元，同比-10.3% ...