中金公司 电车先锋半月谈 摘要 Q&A 请介绍比亚迪最新的智能化战略发布会及其市场反应。 本周比亚迪如期召开了智能化战略发布会，市场对该发布会已有充分预期。发 布会主要关注车型数量、上市节奏和定价。公司策略是快速上车，全系标配超 出市场预期。具体来看，公司具备数据研发资源和产业化能力优势，DeepSeek • 比亚迪发布 21 款车型，预计二季度快速上量，10 万元以上车型全部标配 定价，25 年智驾版与 24 年非智驾版基本无价差，预计 25-26 年高速 NOA 核心硬件方案销售占比达 60%-80%，规模效应有望释放盈利弹性，维持盈 利预测，未来 2-3 年有望保持 20%-30%盈利增速。 • 一月狭义乘用车零售同比下降 12%，受春节、购车潮透支及补贴政策切换 影响，但出口达 38 万辆。预计二月零售仍有压力，三月环比改善，以旧换 新政策有望使 25 年零售销量实现正增长，维持 25 年新能源乘用车销量增 长 25%-30%的判断。 • 柴油发电机行业被康明斯等四家垄断，海外资本开支上行导致产能紧张， 预计供不应求将强化，一季度招标价格已上涨 10%-15%。科泰电源等企业 与海外发动机企业合作稳定 ...

中金公司 风光公用半月谈 摘要 Q&A 2025 年电力板块的整体情况如何，面临哪些挑战和机遇？ 2025 年电力板块的热度相对较低，主要由于去年年底交易出来的 2025 年度交 易电价回落引发了市场担忧。此外，AI 等投资主题吸引了大量资金流入。然而， 我们认为电力板块在面临挑战的同时也存在机遇。绿电运营商受到政策重点扶 • 新能源入市电价政策要求所有新能源电量进入市场交易，通过价格信号促 进理性投资，并建立新能源可持续发展价格结算机制，稳定收益预期，提 振行业投资信心。该政策对 2025 年 6 月 1 日前存量项目友好，新项目需全 部参与市场，差价由工商业用户分摊。 • 为实现十四五能耗目标，国内政策加码敦促下游用户提高绿电消费，如加 速核发绿证、完善碳交易工具。欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）过渡期已启 动，将于 2026 年正式征收，内外压力促使高耗能企业增加绿电使用，提高 消纳支付能力。 • 建议关注破净且估值较低的港股绿电运营商，特别是风电占比较多的龙头 企业，以及 A 股三北地区风电竞争优势企业。新能源政策有望托底价格， 使这些企业最早受益。同时，关注福建世丰赛道，其资产质量优质且具备 较高投资 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中金公司 造纸 1H25 展望 & 太阳纸业深度 • 2025 年造纸行业新增产能投放接近尾声，但供需面难现趋势性大行情。地 产资金流入减少，制造业贷款增加，地方政府鼓励投产，多重因素驱动企 业扩产，需警惕新增产能带来的供给压力。 2025 年造纸行业整体供需面呈现宽松平衡状态。文化纸的新增产能较少，而特 种纸和白卡纸的新增产能较多，导致这些板块存在过剩风险。尽管行业盈利处 于历史低点，许多企业仍在投产，这主要是由于宏观资金链的变化和企业心态 因素。随着地产吸纳资金减少，制造业吸纳贷款占比增加，使得企业能够通过 银行贷款或转债定增等形式获得资金进行扩产。此外，地方政府鼓励投产并提 供优惠条件，也促使企业继续扩展。预计 2025 年的新增产能将逐渐进入尾声， 摘要 Q&A • 2025 年上半年造纸行业市场预期乐观，阔叶浆外盘价格上涨，国内纸企具 备提价底气，龙头企业库存成本下降，业绩有望环比改善，建议逢低吸纳。 但需关注三月份会议后全年走势及下半年新增产能投放压力。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投 ...

该政策对保险行业有何影响？ 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中金公司 险资投资黄金业务试点政策解读 20240208 摘要 • 监管政策放宽允许保险资金投资黄金，旨在缓解当前保险公司面临的资产 配置压力，并为未来拓宽其他资产类别积累经验，是对险资可投资资产类 别的重要尝试。 Q&A 保险资金投资黄金业务试点政策的背景和主要内容是什么？ 2025 年 2 月 7 日，国家金融监管总局发布了关于开展保险资金投资黄金业务试 点的通知。该通知明确了保险资金投资黄金的范围，并确定了首批试点公司， 包括十家大型险企，如人保财险、中国人寿、太平人寿、中国信保、平安财险、 平安人寿、太保财险、太保寿险、泰康人寿和新华人寿。这些公司基本囊括了 国内财险和寿险业内的头部机构。此外，通知要求保险公司投资黄金的账面余 额不得超过公司上季末总资产的 1%，单一交易对手租借规模不得超过试点保险 公司持有的黄金现货合约的 20%。此外，还提出了一些监督管理事项，以控制 保险资金投资黄金的风险。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu987 ...

中金公司 2025 动力煤&炼焦煤观点更新 20240208 摘要 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Q&A 2025 年动力煤和焦煤市场的总体判断是什么？ 在过去四年中，动力煤和焦煤市场表现相当不错。尽管供需紧张局面逐步缓和， 平均价格也在有序下行，但优质公司的盈利仍然非常高，ROE 维持在 10%以上没 有太大问题。2024 年，煤炭板块整体表现稳健，但受市场风格切换影响，其股 票涨跌与自身关系不大。2024 年全年涨幅约为 8.6%，低于沪深 300 的 14.8%。 尽管预计 2025 年均价同比下降 10%左右，但由于这些公司的 ROE 高且杠杆率低， 其基本面仍然优于许多工业企业。在 A 股上市的二十几个板块中，煤炭板块基 • 2024 年煤炭板块涨幅低于沪深 300，但基本面仍优于多数工业企业，预计 2025 年煤价虽同比下降 10%，但高 ROE 和低杠杆使其配置价值较高，在 A 股上市板块中排名前五。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：sh ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國國際金融股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年2月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03908 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recently released "Implementation Plan for Promoting Long-term Capital Market Entry" aims to address the barriers for national social security funds and basic pension insurance funds entering the market, with a series of measures proposed to enhance their investment management and performance evaluation systems [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Capital Markets - The plan is expected to steadily increase the proportion of equity investments by national social security funds, which will have significant implications for the capital market and the real economy [1][2]. - The expansion of social security fund investments is likely to encourage other long-term capital to enter the market more broadly, enhancing market stability and pricing efficiency [1][4]. - Social security funds, as a major source of long-term capital, provide stable and sustainable funding support to the capital market, which can improve market conditions and investor confidence [2][4]. Group 2: Support for Economic Development - Social security funds possess long-term attributes and investment patience, making them capable of supporting innovative enterprises that may face short-term uncertainties, thus aiding in China's economic transformation and high-quality development [2][3]. - The average annual return of social security funds from A-share investments has reached 11.6% over the past 20 years, contributing to a more robust financial foundation for residents' pensions [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Behavior and Market Dynamics - Social security funds are characterized by high investment management capabilities and a focus on the quality and intrinsic value of enterprises, which helps guide market funds towards high-quality investment targets [3]. - The expansion of social security fund investments is expected to create a positive demonstration effect for other long-term capital, fostering a favorable investment atmosphere and trend [4]. - Collaboration between social security funds and other long-term capital sources, such as commercial insurance funds and annuity funds, can lead to resource sharing and risk mitigation, further attracting more long-term capital into the market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes in the asset management divisions of several brokerage firms, including CICC, indicate a trend of internal restructuring within the industry, as firms adapt to evolving market conditions and regulatory requirements [1][3][6]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - CICC announced the departure of Sun Nan, the former head of asset management, who is succeeded by Chen Liang, the current chairman of CICC, effective January 21, 2025 [1][3]. - Other brokerage firms, including Shanzheng Asset Management, Huatai Asset Management, and China Merchants Asset Management, have also reported personnel changes in their asset management subsidiaries [2][6]. Group 2: Asset Management Business Performance - CICC's asset management product, CICC Hengrui Bond A, was established in June 2020 and has seen its scale increase to 170 million yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a 10.67% growth compared to the end of Q3 2024 [3]. - The performance of CICC Hengrui Bond A over the past year was 2.75%, compared to a benchmark of 5.15% [3]. - CICC's asset management revenue for 2023 was 953 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.63%, with net income from asset management fees dropping by 11.72% in the first three quarters of 2024 [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Developments - The asset management sector is experiencing significant differentiation, with many smaller brokerages achieving substantial growth while larger firms like CICC face declines [4][6]. - CICC's asset management business has been slow to progress in establishing a new asset management subsidiary, with no updates since the second round of feedback received in March 2023 [5]. - The company aims to enhance its investment research capabilities, diversify its product offerings, and strengthen compliance and risk management to promote high-quality business development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to facilitate the entry of long-term funds into the market, enhancing the scale of long-term capital in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The plan proposes to steadily increase the investment ratio of stock assets in the national social security fund and to expand the entrusted investment scale of basic pension funds in certain regions [1]. - It establishes a long-term performance assessment mechanism for the national social security fund (over five years) and basic pension funds (over three years), aligning with their long-term investment nature [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Increasing the entry of social security and pension funds into the market is expected to improve the capital market ecosystem and promote high-quality development [2]. - Long-term funds act as stabilizers in the capital market, enhancing internal stability and investor confidence by being less affected by short-term fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Economic Development - Long-term funds contribute to the development of new productive forces and economic transformation by supporting technological innovation and improving corporate governance [3]. - These funds are positioned to engage in infrastructure investment, green growth, and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, ensuring sustainable economic growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - Company has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC and Goldman Sachs as joint sponsors. It is the leading player in China's frozen food industry, focusing on providing delicious, high-quality, and convenient food across various consumption scenarios [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Company is the largest frozen food company in China by revenue, holding a market share of 6.2% in 2023 [1]. - It ranks first in the frozen prepared food market with a market share of 12.7%, approximately four times that of the second-largest competitor [1]. - In the frozen dish products market, the company also ranks first with a market share of 4.9%, exceeding the combined market share of the second to fourth competitors [1]. - The company has developed a product portfolio covering three main categories: frozen prepared foods, frozen dish products, and frozen noodle and rice products [1]. - The company has a strong brand portfolio, including flagship brand "Anjii" and private labels "Frozen Mr." and "Anjii Kitchen," along with strategically acquired brands [1]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% in product sales from 2013 to 2023 [1]. Group 2: Industry Growth - The frozen prepared products industry in China has shown strong growth, with a CAGR of 5.6% from 2018 to 2023, reaching a market size of 55.3 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. - The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2023 to 2028, driven by diverse dining methods and increasing demand for quality products [2]. - The frozen dish products industry is in its early stages but has experienced significant growth, with a CAGR of 60.1% from 2018 to 2023, reaching 80.1 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. - The industry is projected to maintain strong growth with a CAGR of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [2]. Group 3: Product Performance - The frozen noodle and rice products industry has entered a mature phase, with a CAGR of 4.7% from 2018 to 2023, reaching 81.6 billion yuan in 2023 [3]. - The company has 37 products generating over 100 million yuan in revenue [3]. - The "Fresh Lock" series launched in 2019 has significantly expanded the company's retail market presence, achieving over 1 billion yuan in annual sales since 2022, with a revenue growth of 17.6% from 2022 to 2023 and 23.3% year-on-year growth in the nine months ending September 30, 2024 [3]. Group 4: Distribution and Production - As of September 30, 2024, the company has over 760 distributors, contributing a total revenue of 6.4 billion yuan, accounting for over 70% of total revenue from distributors [4]. - Each distributor contributed an average revenue of approximately 5.8 million yuan in 2023, significantly higher than other leading companies in the frozen food industry [4]. - The company operates 13 production bases with an annual production capacity exceeding 1 million tons [5].