Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with multiple business segments continuing to recover, leading to an upward revision of the EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 3.88 and 4.62 CNY respectively, while maintaining the 2026 EPS at 5.38 CNY [2][3]. - The target price has been raised to 69.84 CNY from the previous 55.71 CNY, based on a 18x PE for 2024, reflecting the company's growth potential [3][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.61 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%, with a net profit of 1.80 billion CNY, up 20% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 95.53 billion CNY, a 25% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.90 billion CNY, a 22% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 10.80%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.62%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has established over 600,000 square meters of specialized chemical warehouses and is expanding its logistics capabilities both domestically and internationally [3][4]. Market Position and Industry Outlook - The company has significant room for market share growth, as its revenue in the hazardous chemical logistics market is still relatively low compared to the total market size of 2.38 trillion CNY in 2023 [3][4]. - The increasing regulatory requirements for safety and environmental protection are expected to drive industry consolidation, benefiting specialized third-party logistics providers like the company [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed a year-on-year increase of 25%, with revenue reaching 9.553 billion yuan, up 25.26% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 490 million yuan, up 21.68% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.561 billion yuan, up 14.90% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 179 million yuan, up 19.88% YoY [3] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 slightly decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 10.80%, while the operating expense ratio increased by 0.44 percentage points YoY to 4.35% [2] - The company's non-GAAP net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 4.53%, up 0.10 percentage points YoY [2] Business Performance and Growth - The company's strong performance in Q3 2024 was driven by high demand in the freight forwarding sector, with the CCFI index increasing by 127.32% YoY and 38.34% QoQ [4] - The company has expanded its global presence through acquisitions and new subsidiaries in regions such as Southeast Asia and North America [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 12.493 billion yuan in 2024, 13.890 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.275 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected to reach 644 million yuan, 740 million yuan, and 814 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Metrics and Valuation - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 11% in 2023 to 14% in 2024-2026 [10] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 20.28 in 2023 to 14.76 in 2024, 12.86 in 2025, and 11.68 in 2026 [10] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decline from 2.17 in 2023 to 2.10 in 2024, 1.86 in 2025, and 1.65 in 2026 [10] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 18, 2024, was 58.72 yuan, with a 52-week range of 34.82-72.95 yuan [2] - The company's total market capitalization was 9.50953 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 9.50032 billion yuan [2] - The company's average daily trading volume was 161.74 million yuan, with a monthly turnover rate of 1.67% [2]

证券代码：603713 证券简称：密尔克卫 转债代码：113658 转债简称：密卫转债 密尔克卫智能供应链服务集团股份有限公司 随后，公司财务总监杨波先生对公司财务风险管理办法进行了分享，副总经理王 涛先生、潘锐先生分别对公司主营业务发展现状和亮点进行了介绍： 1、仓配一体化业务（MWT）： 公司在青岛、连云港、防城港等地的仓库投产，除传统的仓配一体化业务外，还 提供仓库堆场、集装箱的衍生服务以提升仓库的盈利能力；为满足客户需求，积极发 展云仓、厂内物流等业务；在快运、冷链、医药等领域为客户提供有竞争力的差异化、 专业化工程物流服务；继续向一带一路西部新区域拓展业务。 2、全球货代业务（MGF）： 2024 年第三季度报告沟通会纪要 | 序号 | 公司名称 | | --- | --- | | 1 | Amundi BOC | | 2 | FIL（大连）科技有限公司 | | 3 | GOLDMAN SACHS (ASIA) L.L.C. | | 4 | Point72 Hong Kong Limited | | 5 | 北京汉和汉华资本管理有限公司 | | 6 | 北京市星石投资管理有限公司 | | 7 | 北 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 76.77 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 57.01 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 3.561 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 million CNY, up 19.88% year-on-year, meeting expectations [1]. - The shipping rates remained relatively strong in Q3, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) averaging 3082 points, a year-on-year increase of 12.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.26%. This favorable shipping rate environment supports the company's global freight forwarding and mobility operations [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in chemical demand, as domestic and international chemical inventories are at relatively low levels. The ongoing policy support in China is anticipated to boost chemical demand, leading to increased operating rates and inventory replenishment, which will enhance the company's trade volume and warehouse capacity utilization [1]. - The integrated logistics service model is expected to drive continuous performance release, with the company expanding its distribution services for chemical products. The new warehouses launched in 2023 are still ramping up capacity utilization, indicating significant profit potential [1]. - Earnings forecasts for the company are optimistic, with expected EPS of 3.84 CNY, 4.77 CNY, and 5.52 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The report assigns a 20x PE valuation for 2024, leading to a reasonable value of 76.77 CNY per share [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 12.349 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 26.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 622 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 44.1% [6][8]. - The EBITDA for 2024E is forecasted at 1.521 billion CNY, with a significant increase in profitability anticipated in the following years [6][8]. - The report highlights a projected increase in EPS from 3.68 CNY in 2022 to 5.52 CNY by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on expected earnings growth and market conditions [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 95.53 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.90 billion yuan, up 21.68% year-on-year [2]. - The logistics business has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in demand during the "golden September" period, indicating a stable growth trajectory in logistics operations [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its competitive strength through strategic acquisitions and the establishment of new subsidiaries, both domestically and internationally, to support its global expansion strategy [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.90%, and a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.88% [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 5.68 billion yuan, 6.49 billion yuan, and 7.46 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.51 yuan, 4.01 yuan, and 4.60 yuan [2][3]. - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 16, 14, and 12 times, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][5]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is focusing on building seven national clusters to implement its strategic plan for 2023-2027, enhancing its operational capabilities and market presence [2]. - It is also diversifying its service offerings by expanding into new business areas such as online logistics platforms and cross-border transportation services, aiming to create a healthy ecosystem across the supply chain [2]. - The logistics sector's overall performance is supported by a steady increase in industrial logistics, with a reported growth of 5.5% in the first eight months of 2024 [2].

| 证券代码：603713 | 证券简称：密尔克卫 公告编号：2024-134 | | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113658 | 转债简称：密卫转债 | 密尔克卫智能供应链服务集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 密尔克卫智能供应链服务集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 17 日发布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地 了解公司 2024 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2024 年 10 月 25 日 下午 13:00-14:00 举行 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交 流。 一、说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2024 年第三季度的经 营成果及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟通，在信息披露允许的 范围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 二、说明会召开的时间、地点 会议召开时间：2024 年 10 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 密尔克卫（603713）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 24Q3归母净利1.8亿元，同比+19.9%，环比+12.1%， 行业景气持续回升 公司公告 2024 年三季报：1）业绩表现：a) 2024 年前三季度归母净利润 4.9 亿 元，同比+21.7%；扣非归母净利润 4.5 亿元，同比+18.1%。b) 分季度看，Q3 归母净利润 1.8 亿元，同比+19.9%，环比+12.1%；Q1、Q2 归母净利润分别为 1.5、1.6 亿元，同比增长 40.6%、9.6%。2）营业收入：2024 年前三季度营业 收入 95.5 亿元，同比+25.3%；2024Q3 营业收入 35.6 亿，同比+14.9%，环比 +15%。3）成本费用端：2024 年前三季度营业成本 84.9 亿元，同比+26.1%； 2024Q3 营业成本 31.8 亿，同比+15.3%，环比+15.1%；2024Q3 三费比率（管 理+销售+财务）4.0%，同比+0.5pts，环比+0.3pts。4）利润率：2024 年前三季 度综合毛利率 11.1%，同比-0.6pts；归母净利率 5.1%，同比-0.2pts。 ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 密尔克卫 (603713.SH) 买入(维持评级) 业绩简评 2024 年 10 月 16 日，密尔克卫发布 2024 年三季报。2024 年前三 季度公司实现营业收入 95.5 亿元，同比上升 25.3%；实现归母净 利润 4.9 亿元，同比上升 21.7%。其中 Q3 公司实现营业收入 35.6 亿元，同比增长 14.9%；实现归母净利润 1.8 亿元，同比增长 19.9%。 经营分析 货代分销高质量发展，2024Q3 公司营收同增 14.9%。2024Q3 公司 营收增长 14.9%，主要源于：1）货代业务增长：2024Q3 受红海事 件影响，集运行业维持高景气，CCFI 指数均值为 1991，同比增长 127.3%，带动公司单箱毛利及货代业务收入增长；2）新仓库爬坡： 内需改善，公司在连云港、烟台、天津等地的新基地快速达产， 对收入形成拉动；3）并购项目并表：2024 年以来公司收购捷晟科 技等分销业务标的，拉动收入增长。 毛利率同比下滑，费用率同比增长。2024Q3 公司毛利率为 10.8%， 同比下降 0.3pct。费用率方面，2024Q3 公司期间费用率为 4.3 ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 密尔克卫 (603713.SH) 买入(维持评级) 业绩简评 2024 年 10 月 16 日，密尔克卫发布 2024 年三季报。2024 年前三 季度公司实现营业收入 95.5 亿元，同比上升 25.3%；实现归母净 利润 4.9 亿元，同比上升 21.7%。其中 Q3 公司实现营业收入 35.6 亿元，同比增长 14.9%；实现归母净利润 1.8 亿元，同比增长 19.9%。 经营分析 货代分销高质量发展，2024Q3 公司营收同增 14.9%。2024Q3 公司 营收增长 14.9%，主要源于：1）货代业务增长：2024Q3 受红海事 件影响，集运行业维持高景气，CCFI 指数均值为 1991，同比增长 127.3%，带动公司单箱毛利及货代业务收入增长；2）新仓库爬坡： 内需改善，公司在连云港、烟台、天津等地的新基地快速达产， 对收入形成拉动；3）并购项目并表：2024 年以来公司收购捷晟科 技等分销业务标的，拉动收入增长。 毛利率同比下滑，费用率同比增长。2024Q3 公司毛利率为 10.8%， 同比下降 0.3pct。费用率方面，2024Q3 公司期间费用率为 4.3 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 reached ¥3,560,526,125.27, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.90%[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥179,247,000.28, up 19.88% compared to the same period last year[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥162,403,073.06, reflecting a 15.61% increase year-on-year[2] - Basic earnings per share for the quarter were ¥1.09, an increase of 19.78% year-on-year[3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 was ¥490,226,000.44, an increase from ¥402,884,372.39 in Q3 2023, representing a growth of approximately 21.6%[15] - The total comprehensive income for Q3 2024 reached ¥551,671,268.74, compared to ¥430,732,371.31 in Q3 2023, indicating an increase of about 28.0%[15] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was ¥72,072,497.37, a significant increase of 137.55% compared to the same period last year[3] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was -¥160,179,907.07, a decline from ¥400,765,960.69 in the first three quarters of 2023[16] - Cash inflows from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 amounted to ¥8,722,511,229.64, compared to ¥7,402,713,239.26 in the same period of 2023, marking an increase of approximately 17.8%[16] - Cash inflows from investment activities totaled ¥607,385,407.47 in the first three quarters of 2024, down from ¥1,323,827,588.56 in the same period of 2023, representing a decrease of about 54.2%[17] - The net cash flow from financing activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was ¥658,855,073.10, slightly down from ¥691,424,077.20 in the same period of 2023[17] - The company reported a decrease in cash received from other operating activities, totaling ¥96,080,691.93 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to ¥266,568,207.94 in the same period of 2023, a decline of approximately 64.0%[16] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period amounted to ¥12,530,196,574.16, marking a 12.65% increase from the end of the previous year[3] - Non-current assets totaled CNY 5,594,563,088.01, an increase from CNY 5,362,229,923.60 year-over-year[11] - Total liabilities increased to CNY 7,716,958,206.66 from CNY 6,757,423,143.86, a rise of 14.2%[12] - Shareholder equity rose to CNY 4,813,238,367.50 from CNY 4,366,110,677.14, an increase of 10.2%[12] Shareholder Information - The company reported a total of 11,262 common shareholders at the end of the reporting period[8] - The top three shareholders, including Chen Yinhai, hold a combined 52.06% of the shares, indicating significant control over the company[8] - There are no significant changes in the participation of major shareholders in margin trading or securities lending activities[8] Operational Highlights - The company has not disclosed any new product developments or technological advancements in this quarter[9] - The company has not reported any mergers or acquisitions during this period[9] - No other important operational information was highlighted for investor attention in this quarter[9] Revenue and Costs - Total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached CNY 9,553,014,724.20, a 25.3% increase from CNY 7,626,521,734.36 in the same period of 2023[12] - Operating costs for the first nine months of 2024 were CNY 8,944,017,032.15, up from CNY 7,128,043,093.82, reflecting a 25.5% increase[12] - Research and development expenses for the first nine months of 2024 were CNY 48,541,024.27, compared to CNY 31,956,083.28 in the same period of 2023, a 52.0% increase[14] Current Assets - As of September 30, 2024, the total current assets amounted to approximately CNY 6.94 billion, an increase from CNY 5.76 billion at the end of 2023, representing a growth of about 20.4%[10] - The cash and cash equivalents reached CNY 1.30 billion, up from CNY 1.23 billion, indicating a growth of approximately 5.5%[10] - Accounts receivable increased significantly to CNY 3.23 billion from CNY 2.11 billion, reflecting a rise of about 53%[10] - Inventory decreased to CNY 466.51 million from CNY 791.07 million, showing a decline of approximately 41%[10] Accounting Standards - The company did not apply new accounting standards or interpretations for the first time in 2024[18]