%% %% %% %% 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] "碳"寻新机：石化、化工行业双碳展望 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年作为"十五五"开局之年，碳排放双控逐步取代能耗双控，成为新的政策考核指挥棒。 石化、化工行业细分子行业与工艺路线众多，碳排放强度分化明显，整体呈现上游油气＜气头 化工＜油头化工＜煤化工的梯度格局。煤化工虽碳排放强度高，但仍具减排潜力，先进能耗企 业有望在双碳约束下形成竞争优势。短期看，预计碳收益或成本影响有限，但在新政策指挥棒 下，新增产能受限信号较为明确，有望促进存量优质资产价值重估；中长期看，碳收益有望增 厚利润，看好高碳排行业（煤化工行业、氯碱等）内低碳排强度资产。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 魏凯 侯彦飞 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 王呈 徐静 詹林星 SAC：S0490525040004 请阅读最后评级说明 ...

内容概要：下游核心应用领域尼龙6需求韧性凸显，纺织服装、包装薄膜、汽车轻量化、电子电气等赛 道对高品质、差异化尼龙6的需求持续攀升，带动己内酰胺市场需求持续增长，据统计，2025年我国己 内酰胺需求量达681.7万吨，同比增长5.1%，为匹配持续增长的市场需求，国内己内酰胺生产企业纷纷 推进产能扩张，但由于前期产能扩张过快，行业整体处于供大于求的阶段，据统计，2025年我国己内酰 胺产能达807万吨，同比增长16.1%，同期产量完成685万吨，部分产品主要用于出口。 相关上市企业：鲁西化工（000830）、中国旭阳集团（01907.HK）、恒逸石化（000703）、聚合顺 （605166）、华鲁恒升（600426）、兖矿能源（600188）、巨化股份（600160）、兰花科创 （600123）、中国石化（600028） 相关企业：福建永荣控股集团有限公司、湖北三宁化工股份有限公司、福建申远新材料有限公司、广西 恒逸新材料有限公司、浙江巴陵恒逸己内酰胺有限责任公司 关键词：己内酰胺行业市场政策、己内酰胺行业产业链、己内酰胺供需现状、己内酰胺进出口贸易、己 内酰胺竞争格局、己内酰胺发展趋势 一、概述 己内酰胺（C ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13]. Core Insights - The global chemical industry is experiencing a clear trend of "East rising, West falling," with Europe facing challenges from high energy costs, carbon constraints, and industrial relocation, while China has firmly established itself as the leader in global chemical capacity [3][10]. - From 2004 to 2024, global chemical sales are projected to grow from €1.4 trillion to €5.0 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6%, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth rate of 1.9% [7][18]. - China's share of global chemical sales is expected to increase from 10% in 2004 to 46% in 2024, while the shares of the EU, the US, Japan, South Korea, and India will be 13%, 12%, 3%, 3%, and 3%, respectively [7][18]. Summary by Sections Global Chemical Overview - China leads the global chemical industry, with capital expenditures expected to reach €127 billion in 2024, accounting for 46.6% of the global total [7][20]. - Research and development (R&D) investment in China's chemical sector is projected to reach €18 billion in 2024, representing 31.0% of the global total [25][20]. Chemical Cycle and Market Dynamics - The global chemical industry is at a historical low in capital return rates and profit margins, with many companies implementing cost-cutting and restructuring measures in anticipation of a new economic upturn [8][30]. - The shift towards specialty chemicals is noted, as these products typically have lower commoditization and higher added value, allowing companies to avoid intense competition in the commodity chemicals market [30]. Cost Disparities and EU Capacity Exit - The EU chemical industry is projected to have sales of €635 billion in 2024, but its global market share has been declining for nearly 20 years due to high energy costs and regulatory pressures [9][43]. - The EU is expected to close approximately 37 million tons of chemical capacity from 2022 to 2025, representing 9% of its total capacity, with the petrochemical sector facing the highest closure rates [9][74]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading Chinese chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the shifting dynamics of the global chemical industry [10][83].

董伯骏 国海证券化工分析师: 好的，各位投资者大家晚上好。那首先也祝各位投资者新年快乐，那么在咱们这一个这个 还是过年期间，这么一个开工开工日，来参加我们本次这个国海化工主持的会议。我是国 海化工董博俊。那么我们今天，因为整个，这个化工板块，这个最近，包括其实往后面看 我们是非常看好。那么碳排放约束之下，整个化工企业，其实上有一个这个进一步的一个 价格中枢的提振，以及价值的重估。那么在这个时间点，我们也把我们在 1 月 30 号发布 的有机硅行业系列深度报告。 反内卷协同共振，供需平衡逐步修复，那么再给各位投资者，做一个汇报。首先我们先那 个讲一下整体我们有机硅行业的观点。其实我们认为，现在有机硅行业，现在一个是非常 明确的，是迎来这个供需格局的持续的改善。那么在需求端，其实我们也在报告里边做了 一个详细的拆分，包括在电子电器、建筑、纺织等这些传统的领域，现在其实还是在，稳 健的一个增长。那么同时，像光伏用胶和新能源锂电池用胶这两个领域，包括，再一个就 是特特高压和航空航天用胶。 这些新型领域领域，实际上那个需求的增速是比较快的，所以其实它的整个的需求增量， 在这个传统需求稳健的同时。有比较大幅的一个新需求的 ...

生意社02月24日讯 2月24日，鲁西化工集团股份有限公司年产38万吨异辛醇，装置正常开工，异辛醇报价6600元/吨，报价 暂稳。实际成交价协商为主。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 2、指定周期的平均结算价 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 C：升贴水，包括物流成本、品牌价差、区域价差等因素。 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 C：升贴水，包括物流成本、品牌价差、区域价差等因素。 生意社02月24日讯 2月24日，鲁西化工集团股份有限公司年产38万吨异辛醇，装置正常开工，异辛醇报价6600元/吨，报价 暂稳。实际成交价协商为主。 2、指定周期的平均结算价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

生意社02月16日讯 交易商 品牌/产地 交货地 最新报价 尿素 硝铵溶液 含氮32% 聊城芫泽化工产品有限公司 内蒙古 山东省/聊城市 1800元/吨 鲁西化工 1800元/吨 聊城芫泽化工产品有限公司 山东省/德州市 (文章来源：生意社) 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The European chemical industry is facing a systemic crisis due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy costs, coupled with stringent carbon emission and environmental policies, leading to a "death spiral" of high costs and low demand. This situation is expected to result in a wave of shutdowns in the basic olefins, aromatics, chlor-alkali, and liquid ammonia sectors over the next 3-5 years, significantly affecting the global supply-demand landscape [2] - In contrast, the Chinese chemical industry is positioned to absorb the market share vacated by Europe, benefiting from a virtuous cycle of capital expenditure, cost optimization, and demand growth. Chinese companies are expected to capitalize on two main opportunities: (1) domestic chemical leaders will benefit from the systematic exit of the European chemical industry; (2) domestic firms in sectors with high consumption/production shares in Europe will also gain from the local industry's exit [2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as Sinopec, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Decline of European Chemical Industry - Europe has historically led the global chemical industry, but its market share has significantly declined from 16.4% in 2013 to 12.6% in 2023, while China's share increased from 34.0% to 43.1% during the same period [37][40] - The EU27 countries accounted for approximately 66% of the European chemical market, with Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands being the largest contributors [26] - The European chemical industry has seen a notable decrease in trade competitiveness, with exports dropping from 25% of global chemical exports in 2003 to 18% in 2023 [45] Section 2: Systemic Challenges in Europe - The European chemical industry is experiencing a significant decline in competitiveness due to high energy costs, stringent carbon policies, and regulatory burdens, leading to a lack of investment and innovation [90][92] - The energy cost for industrial users in the EU has more than doubled from 2008-2021 to 2022-2024, severely impacting the industry's profitability [106] - The industry is facing a wave of shutdowns, with approximately 20% of ethylene capacity expected to be closed over five years due to high operational costs and declining demand [78][84] Section 3: Opportunities for Chinese Chemical Industry - The Chinese chemical sector is benefiting from a favorable investment environment, with significant capital expenditures leading to optimized costs and increased demand [2] - Chinese companies are well-positioned to take over market share from Europe, particularly in sectors where European firms are exiting due to high costs and regulatory pressures [2] - The report highlights specific companies in China that are expected to thrive in this shifting landscape, indicating a strong potential for growth in the domestic chemical market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the price of n-butanol from Luxi Chemical has decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 6550 yuan/ton, reflecting a downward trend in the market [1][4] - The price drop of approximately 2.3% suggests an increase in supply or a weakening demand in the spot market, leading to a bearish outlook [2][5] - This price reduction may suppress buyers' purchasing intentions and exacerbate market expectations for further declines [2][5] Group 2 - The pricing mechanism for bulk commodities is based on big data and pricing models, which generate a benchmark price used for transaction settlement [2][5] - The settlement price formula is defined as: Settlement Price = Benchmark Price × K + C, where K includes adjustment factors like account period costs, and C includes surcharges such as logistics costs and regional price differences [2][3][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The chemical sector's profitability is under pressure due to rising costs and impairment impacts, but a recovery is expected as capital expenditures near completion and demand stabilizes [3][4] - Key investment opportunities are identified in the agricultural chain, textile chain, export chain, and sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - In Q4 2025, oil prices declined, negatively impacting demand and leading to lower chemical prices, while gas prices increased [3] - The average Brent spot price was $63.98 per barrel, down 15% year-on-year, while NYMEX natural gas futures rose 36% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecasts - The weighted average EPS for 2025 is projected at 0.90 yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with Q4 EPS expected at 0.20 yuan [3] - Significant profit growth is anticipated in sectors such as pesticides, compound fertilizers, potassium fertilizers, chromium chemicals, and fluorochemicals [3] Key Companies and Their Projections - Wanhua Chemical is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.16 billion yuan in 2025, with Q4 profit at 3 billion yuan [3][4] - Salt Lake Industry is projected to reach 8.5 billion yuan in 2025, with Q4 profit at 4 billion yuan [3][4] - Agricultural chemicals like Yangnong Chemical and New Hope Liuhe are expected to see substantial growth, with profits of 1.24 billion yuan and 6.72 billion yuan respectively in 2025 [3][4] Sector-Specific Insights - The textile chain is expected to benefit from high demand growth and improved supply conditions, with companies like Luhua Chemical and Tongkun Group highlighted [4] - The agricultural chain is supported by increasing planting areas and higher transgenic penetration rates, benefiting companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4] - Export-related chemical products are expected to perform well due to low inventory levels and easing monetary policies [4] Material Growth Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Technology noted for their potential [5]