Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as stable for 2025 and 2026 [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry in China includes various sub-industries such as agriculture, food processing, and beverage manufacturing, closely linked to economic development, population structure, and consumer preferences. Despite ongoing economic pressures and weak consumer demand, the industry continues to grow, although revenue growth rates are declining and profitability is weakening [1][6] - The agricultural sector shows a steady increase in grain planting area and production, with major crops like rice, wheat, and corn maintaining a balance between supply and demand. However, some crop prices are under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics and international trade conditions [24][25] - The food manufacturing sector is experiencing stable growth, with overall profitability remaining flat. The industry is characterized by increasing fixed asset investments and a slight increase in total assets [52][53] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry has a total asset value of 8.42 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.59%. The industry’s revenue for 2024 is 9.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.20% year-on-year [7][11] - By the end of September 2025, the industry’s total assets increased to 8.61 trillion yuan, with a revenue of 6.71 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.75% [7][11] 2. Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's total output value reached 162,787.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%. The grain planting area for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 11,931.9 million hectares and 11,940.9 million hectares, respectively [24][25] - Grain production is expected to increase, with total grain output for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 70.65 million tons and 71.49 million tons, respectively [27] 3. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing growth in production, influenced by the recovery of the livestock sector. The total industrial feed production for 2024 is 31,503.1 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [45] - The feed prices are expected to remain low due to fluctuations in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [49] 4. Food Manufacturing - The food manufacturing sector continues to grow, with total assets reaching 2.41 trillion yuan by September 2025, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is 1.63 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease in profit margins [52][53] 5. Livestock Industry - The livestock sector is under pressure, with pork prices gradually declining. The production of beef is increasing, while sheep meat production is decreasing due to weak demand [56][58] - The overall production of meat is expected to grow, with pork production for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 5,706.03 million tons and 5,938 million tons, respectively [58]

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Guidance on Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Brewing Industry (2026-2030)" marks the beginning of a high-quality development path for China's liquor industry, focusing on enhancing raw material supply, technological innovation, and optimizing industry structure [1] Group 1: Upstream Development - The guidance emphasizes the shift from a "procurement mindset" to a "planting mindset" in the liquor industry, highlighting the importance of strengthening raw material supply and cultivation bases [2] - Key tasks include promoting the cultivation of specific brewing raw materials such as sorghum, barley, and wine grapes, and encouraging collaboration between universities, research institutions, and enterprises for high-yield, flavor-rich varieties [2][3] - The construction of raw material bases will focus on quality precision and customized varieties, leveraging biotechnology to meet diverse flavor needs [3] Group 2: Intelligent Manufacturing - The guidance prioritizes the "promotion of intelligent transformation," indicating that smart brewing will enhance traditional techniques rather than replace them [4] - Support for AI applications in various production processes aims to improve efficiency and quality control, with initiatives for smart manufacturing solutions and infrastructure development [4][5] - Companies like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu are already implementing advanced technologies, such as 5G networks and AI decision-making models, to enhance production efficiency and accuracy [5] Group 3: Downstream Channel Innovation - The guidance encourages innovation in sales models, promoting a shift from traditional wholesale to brand agency and chain operations, as well as the development of new retail formats like community e-commerce and live streaming [7] - The liquor industry's immediate retail market is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of over 35%, indicating a significant shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards instant delivery [7] - Companies are increasingly adopting direct-to-consumer strategies through live streaming and community marketing, reducing reliance on traditional distribution networks [8] Group 4: Cultural and Cross-Industry Integration - The guidance supports the integration of brewing culture into various lifestyle products, indicating a broader cultural value of liquor beyond just consumption [8] - The emphasis on "brewing industry +" suggests a focus on cross-industry collaborations and the creation of original intellectual properties [8]

24 February 2026 | 12:16AM HKT Equity Research China Consumer Staples: LNY expert calls: Spirits: Moutai/Wuliangye pivoting to recovery path; Dairy saw disciplined pricing yet unexciting On Feb 23, we hosted an expert call with a large spirits and F&B distributor located in Hunan province. Key highlights: 1) Spirits: Feitian Moutai volume/pricing topped expectations during the CNY period in the expert's region, with Feitian Moutai spirits retail sales volume up >20% yoy offsetting shipment control on non-st ...

23 February 2026 | 1:39AM HKT Equity Research China Spirits Tracker: 2026 LNY retail sales slightly better than expected; Resilient super premium with Moutai/Wuliangye LNY consumption sentiments: Pax mobility: The pax mobility for LNY holiday (Feb 15 - 21), up by c.9% yoy and the whole Chunyun window recorded 5.3bn (Feb 2-20). Strong homecoming flows translated into robust on-premise activity: daily average sales of key retail and catering enterprises rose +10.6% yoy over the first two holiday days (MOFCOM) ...

2月24日，农历马年首个交易日。虽然大盘飘红，但白酒板块却并未迎来"开门红"。万得白酒指数 （866051）早盘高开，随后震荡走低，截至收盘下跌1.32%，多只个股跌幅超过2%。拉长时间看，年初 至今该指数已累计回调3.67%。 尽管行业整体仍处在需求偏弱、渠道库存承压的调整期，但在多家投资机构看来，白酒板块已步入周期 底部区域，对2026年迎来边际修复持乐观态度。也有分析认为，以茅台为代表的超高端品牌，凭借稳健 的基本面和近期批价企稳回升的走势，正成为市场信心的核心锚点。 与此同时，行业分化将愈发显著。 国泰海通证券訾猛团队认为，白酒行业已进入本轮周期底部，渠道情绪已观察到修复迹象，景气改善、 批价上涨、库存去化等边际变化以及宏观政策对股价有较强催化。 《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者在近期的走访中也感受到市场逐步企稳的迹象。一家酒类连锁零售机构 终端店负责人告诉记者，和往年相比，销售还略有增加。茅台、五粮液、国窖1573和往年差不多，红花 郎15明显比往年卖得好。 动销的边际改善，最终也将传导至价格端。第三方报价平台显示，飞天茅台原箱当前市场批价约1700 元/瓶，较2月初上涨70元/瓶，较年初上涨约150元 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1][12] Core Insights - Overall industry sales performance slightly exceeded expectations; liquor met expectations while the restaurant chain outperformed [4] - The food and beverage sector showed strong sales during the Spring Festival, with a positive outlook for post-holiday inventory replenishment [7] Summary by Category - **Liquor**: Overall performance met expectations, with a projected decline in single to double digits. Notable performances from Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while real estate liquor brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu performed better [4] - **Snacks**: Maintained good sales during the Spring Festival, with double-digit growth expected. High-end gift boxes performed well, although high-priced gift boxes showed weaker sales. Positive feedback from bulk snack channels [4] - **Restaurant Chain**: B-end performance of condiments exceeded pre-holiday expectations, with overall sales expected to grow by double digits. Leading frozen food company Anjijia performed exceptionally well [4] - **Dairy Products**: Sales during the Spring Festival showed recovery, with liquid milk returning to positive growth and significant improvements in freshness, while price competition has eased [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the restaurant chain, followed by snacks and certain liquor brands. Recommended liquor stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhui Jiu. For consumer goods, recommended stocks include Anjijia, Angel Yeast, Yihai International, Weidong, and Wancheng Group [7]

国盛证券在其研报中指出，2026年春节旺季呈现稳健复苏、结构性修复、哑铃型分化、头部向下挤压明 显的特点，多地反馈"茅五"动销超预期且同比增长，100—300 元价格带受益春节假期消费。需求端分 场景看，高端礼赠、大众聚饮自饮需求环比修复，商务宴请、团购需求仍有承压；分品牌看，高端名酒 和地产酒为动销主力、次高端酒动销放缓，其中飞天、普五、1935 等头部单品春节动销较旺，主要受 益于产品性价比提升、客群和场景拓展以及企业内部改革，同时300 元以下大众价位段单品动销仍相对 良性，符合节前预计基本面表现为茅台>高端>地产酒>次高端的判断。供给端看，酒企发力探索多元化 经营模式，春节营销有所创新，更加拥抱社媒，向"即饮"和"即时"场景倾斜。 （文章来源：北京商报） 北京商报讯2月24日尾盘，沪指4117.41点上涨0.87%。白酒板块以2223.20点收盘微涨0.27%，其中14只 白酒股下跌。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1466.80元/股，下跌1.25%；五粮液收盘价达105.16元/股，下跌0.85%； 山西汾酒收盘价163.58元/股，下跌1.36%；泸州老窖收盘价达112.50元/股，下跌3.23% ...

今日（2.24），大消费板块冲高回落，盘初一度涨超1%，规模领先的消费ETF（159928）转跌0.64%，盘中成交额已超3.6亿元！资金再度青睐，盘中获2400 万份净申购。最新规模超223亿元，同类持续领先！ 消息面上，春节出行强度提升，春节假期前6日全社会累计跨区域人员流动量增速较春运返乡阶段进一步上行。消费迎来开门红，商品消费需求旺盛、服务 消费活力满满。旅游市场热度高涨，"分段式过年"普及，主题上"南下避寒、北上冰雪"双线并行，出入境旅游双向增长。春节档电影方面，票房明显走弱。 政策面上，高层杂志发表重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》；我国将对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措；加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮 助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资；三部门发布重要五年规划期间支持科技创新进口税收优惠政策。 东吴证券指出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多数上涨， 全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内需方面，动能稳步修复。 产业趋势层面， ...

与高端市场的火热形成呼应的是大众价格带的繁荣。走访时，北京商报记者发现，泸州老窖六年窖龄 酒、海之蓝等300元以下白酒产品也成为消费者追捧的热销产品。方庄附近的烟酒店店员表示："春节期 间高端白酒产品销量亮眼的同时，大众酒销量也在稳步提升。家庭自饮场景下消费者多选择大众酒，进 一步推动了该价格带动销提升，这与我们年前的预判一致。" 随着9天"加长版"假期落下帷幕，白酒旺季消费也逐渐告一段落。今年春节期间，白酒消费市场呈现出 清晰的"哑铃型"分化结构。2月24日，北京商报记者走访北京部分终端市场并结合春节期间调研发现， 高端酒与大众酒两端需求升温，次高端价位却陷入"冰河期"，这一格局的形成，是消费场景深度重构的 集中体现。如今，当春节旺季的喧嚣散去，白酒行业如何在接下来的消费淡季中"弯道超车"，成为所有 从业者必须直面的课题。 高端与大众的"崛起" 在白酒传统消费周期中，春节假期既将行业消费旺季推向小高潮，也预示着淡季的到来。在2026年春节 期间，白酒消费在旺季小高潮中，呈现出明显的分化发展。这种分化不再是简单的品牌此消彼长，而是 沿着价格带形成了清晰的断层。 北京商报记者走访终端发现，春节期间，茅台、五粮液 ...

白酒六省渠道调研要点20260222 春节动销总结： 整体符合预期，分化延续：#高端动销表现突出，茅台、五粮液多地同比增长，价格坚挺；中低端品牌部分地区承 压，去库存为主。 #区域间有所分化，宴席需求带动头部品牌增长，节后库存水平整体可控。 ■ 四川：春节期间白酒动销分化，茅台、五粮动销较好，千元标杆价格下探至800元，#整体动销超去年，市场表 现喜人。 白酒六省渠道调研要点20260222 春节动销总结： 整体符合预期，分化延续：#高端动销表现突出，茅台、五粮液多地同比增长，价格坚挺；中低端品牌部分地区承 压，去库存为主。 #区域间有所分化，宴席需求带动头部品牌增长，节后库存水平整体可控。 ■ 四川：春节期间白酒动销分化，茅台、五粮动销较好，千元标杆价格下探至800元，#整体动销超去年，市场表 现喜人。 主流品牌如水井坊、舍得、红花郎等中低端动销持平或偏弱，库存去化进度较快。 ■ 江苏：茅台、五粮液动销高效，销售计划基本完成，节前招商推动分销进度。 五粮液终端限价严格，批价760-795元，分销政策灵活。 #整体动销好于去年，部分产品供货节奏加快。 ■ 河南：节前茅台动销积极，库存去化明显，#动销同比增长约 ...