Core Viewpoint - The electric grid equipment sector experienced a significant surge in stock prices, with multiple companies reaching their daily limit up and setting new historical highs [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 16, the electric grid equipment stocks opened strongly, with companies such as Baobian Electric, Sanbian Technology, and Xinlian Electronics hitting the daily limit up [1] - Siyuan Electric also reached the daily limit up, continuing to set new historical highs [1] - Other companies like Shuangjie Electric, Guodian Nanzi, China West Electric, and Ankao Zhidian also saw increases in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - Sanbian Technology has achieved a four-day consecutive increase in stock price [1] - Baobian Electric has seen a two-day consecutive increase in stock price [1] - Pinggao Electric, Xinlian Electronics, and Siyuan Electric have reached the daily limit increase [1] Group 2 - Shuangjie Electric, Guodian Nanzi, China West Electric, and Ankao Intelligent Electric have also experienced price increases [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high but retreated, with all three major indices turning negative. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.01. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 117.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,300 stocks in the market experienced declines [1][2]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with Changdian Technology hitting the daily limit and reaching a five-year high. Other stocks such as Meige Technology, Kangqiang Electronics, and Shenghui Integration also reached the daily limit. The humanoid robot concept gained momentum, with stocks like Ningbo Huaxiang and Founder Electric hitting the daily limit. The commercial aerospace sector rebounded, with Chengjian Development also hitting the daily limit. The electric grid equipment sector was active, with Siyuan Electric reaching the daily limit [2]. Declining Stocks - The AI application sector experienced a significant decline, with stocks such as Shenguang Group, Vision China, People’s Daily, and Xinhua News Agency hitting the daily limit [2].

Macro Economic Group - In December, M2 growth was 8.5%, exceeding Wind's expectation of 7.9% and up from 8.0% in November. M1 growth was 3.8%, matching expectations but down from 4.9% in November, indicating a slowdown in money velocity [4] - The total social financing (TSF) in December grew by 8.3%, slightly above the expected 8.2% but down from 8.5% in November. The TSF increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 1.82 trillion yuan but down from 2.49 trillion yuan year-on-year [4] - Bank credit in December increased by 910 billion yuan, exceeding the expected 679.4 billion yuan and up from 390 billion yuan in the previous month. However, it was down 800 billion yuan year-on-year [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - Siyi Electric (002028.SZ) reported a revenue of 21.2 billion yuan for 2025, a 37.2% year-on-year increase, with Q4 revenue reaching 7.38 billion yuan, up 46.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.16 billion yuan, a 54.4% increase, exceeding market expectations [12] - Guanghe Technology (001389.SZ) forecasted a net profit of 980 million to 1.02 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 45% to 50.8%. The Q4 net profit was estimated at 280 million yuan, a 50.4% increase, driven by strong demand for server PCB boards [13] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction resulted in 8.4GW of capacity, exceeding expectations and marking a historical high. This sets the stage for significant supply chain orders in the coming years, with a peak delivery expected between 2028 and 2030 [15] - The State Grid has confirmed a total investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on accelerating ultra-high voltage construction and enhancing supply chain capabilities [16] Consumer Group - The Financial Regulatory Bureau emphasized the need for financial support to boost consumption and investment, particularly in sectors like real estate, healthcare, and small businesses. This is expected to benefit consumer sectors such as automobiles and home appliances [18] - Juzhi Bio's second collagen medical device has been approved, enhancing the focus on the collagen market, which is gaining traction in aesthetic and skin repair applications [19] - Liufeng Group reported a same-store sales growth of 15% for Q4 2025, driven by increased customer flow and product pricing strategies, indicating strong growth momentum [19]

Market Overview - The market opened higher but retreated, with all three major indices turning negative. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets had a half-day trading volume of 1.99 trillion, an increase of 117.1 billion compared to the previous trading day [1][6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index was nearly flat, down by 0.01% [2][3]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with Longji Technology hitting the daily limit and reaching a five-year high. Other stocks like Meiying Technology, Kangqiang Electronics, and Shenghui Integration also hit the daily limit [1]. - The humanoid robot concept gained traction, with stocks such as Ningbo Huaxiang and Founder Electric hitting the daily limit [1]. - The commercial aerospace concept experienced a rebound, with Chengjian Development hitting the daily limit [1]. - The electric grid equipment sector was active, with Siyuan Electric hitting the daily limit [1]. - In contrast, the AI application sector saw a significant decline, with companies like Provincial Advertising Group, Vision China, People's Daily, and Xinhua News hitting the daily limit [1]. Market Sentiment - 73.32% of users are bullish on the market outlook [4]. - A total of 2,049 stocks rose, while 3,313 stocks fell, with 49 stocks hitting the daily limit down and 47 stocks hitting the daily limit up [5].

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the ultra-high voltage (UHV) sector is driven by the announcement from the State Grid regarding a significant increase in fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [1] Investment Direction - The focus of investments will be on constructing a new power system, with an average annual increase of 20 million kilowatts in wind and solar energy installations, aiming to raise the share of electricity in final energy consumption to 35% [1] - Accelerating the construction of UHV direct current transmission channels, with cross-regional and cross-provincial transmission capacity expected to increase by over 30% compared to the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Enhancing the electrification level of end-use energy to meet the demand for 35 million charging facilities [1] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities recently indicated that investment in the power grid is expected to maintain stable growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, driven by continuous growth in electricity consumption, with an average annual growth rate of 5%-6% anticipated [1] - The growth rate of electricity consumption is expected to maintain an elasticity range of 1.2-1.25 compared to GDP growth [1] - The market shows a clear expectation of preemptive trading in domestic demand, with the UHV and digitalization sectors expected to face significant pressure by 2025 but have already shown signs of a bottom reversal, indicating potential investment value during the new five-year planning window [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Greater China Electrical Equipment Sector Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Greater China Electrical Equipment sector, focusing on the State Grid's capital expenditure (capex) plans for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030E) [1][2]. Key Points State Grid Capex Plans - State Grid has budgeted its capex to reach Rmb4 trillion in the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is approximately 40% higher than the Rmb2.8 trillion allocated in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) [1][2][9]. - This increase in capex is expected to facilitate the development of a new power grid platform aimed at enhancing clean energy usage [1][3]. Growth Projections - The projected capex translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over the next five years, which is higher than the 5.9% year-on-year growth of PRC power grid capex reported in the first eleven months of 2025 [1][9]. - The capex increase is anticipated to boost non-fossil energy consumption in China to 25% by 2030, up from 16% in 2020 and 20% in 2025 [3]. Infrastructure Development - The capex will be allocated towards building a new power grid platform that integrates main, distribution, and micro-grids, along with enhancing ultra-high voltage (UHV) DC transmission lines to improve inter-regional and inter-provincial power transmission capacity by over 30% compared to the end of the 14th FYP [4]. - There will also be a focus on accelerating the construction of distribution networks and off-grid micro-grid models, as well as developing digital and intelligent infrastructure [4]. Company Feedback - NARI Technology Co. and Pinggao Electric expressed that the Rmb4 trillion capex exceeds their previous estimates, indicating a positive outlook for new orders from State Grid [7][8]. - Both companies expect increased demand for high voltage and power distribution equipment over the next five years due to the capex increase [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the PRC power grid equipment sector, identifying it as a preferred sub-sector within the renewable, utility, and power grid equipment space in PRC/HK [1]. - Buy ratings are reiterated for companies including Sieyuan, Pinggao, XJ Electric, and NARI, based on their expected benefits from the increased capex [1]. Risks - Key risks identified for Pinggao include potential delays in the approval process for UHV transmission line projects, lower-than-expected raw material cost reductions, and lower-than-expected PRC grid capex [12]. - For NARI, risks include lower-than-expected market demand and delays in project schedules [14]. - Sieyuan faces similar risks, including lower-than-expected PRC grid capex and higher raw material costs [16]. Conclusion - The significant increase in State Grid's capex is expected to drive growth in the electrical equipment sector, particularly benefiting companies closely tied to State Grid. The focus on clean energy and infrastructure development aligns with China's broader energy transition goals.

January 15, 2026 05:30 PM GMT M Update Strong 2025 preliminary results underpinned by robust revenue growth, margin expansion Reaction to earnings Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Key Takeaways According to Siyuan's preliminary results, revenue was Rmb21.1bn in 2025, up 37.2% yoy and 3.8% higher than our estimate of 20.4bn. Net profit came ...

Group 1 - The A-share market's smart grid concept stocks continue to perform strongly, with Wan Sheng Intelligent approaching a 20% limit up, and Can Energy Power rising over 13% [1] - The investment in China's power grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, with annual investments around 1 trillion yuan during the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] - The investment forecast for State Grid and Southern Grid in 2026 is expected to reach 700 billion yuan and 189 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.6% and 8.0% [1] Group 2 - European data centers are accelerating construction, revealing power supply and demand contradictions, which further stimulate the demand for offshore wind and power interconnection [1] - The continuous high growth in the demand for European grid renovation is beneficial for main grid transformers and switches [1] Group 3 - The stock performance of various companies in the smart grid sector shows significant increases, with Wan Sheng Intelligent up by 19.44%, Can Energy Power by 13.45%, and He Shun Electric by 12.49% [2] - The total market capitalization of Wan Sheng Intelligent is 7.876 billion yuan, while Can Energy Power stands at 2.447 billion yuan [2] - The year-to-date performance of these stocks indicates strong growth, with Wan Sheng Intelligent at 46.38% and Can Energy Power at 35.06% [2]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电网设备 思源电气（002028） 2025 年业绩快报点评：业绩大超预期，稳步 迈进 next level 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12,460 | 15,458 | 21,205 | 29,560 | 39,025 | | 同比（%） | 18.25 | 24.06 | 37.18 | 39.40 | 32.02 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,559 | 2,049 | 3,163 | 4,523 | 6,059 | | 同比（%） | 27.75 | 31.42 | 54.35 | 43.01 | 33.96 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.00 | 2.62 | 4.05 | 5.79 | 7.76 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 84.66 | 64.42 | 41.74 | 29.18 | 21.79 | [Table_Ta ...