Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - Viscose staple fiber is the most important regenerated fiber, with China being the main producer. In 2023, global viscose fiber production was approximately 6.3 million tons, with China accounting for 4.12 million tons, or 65% of the total [2][17] - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a reduction in capacity in recent years, with a high concentration (CR3 > 70%). The total domestic capacity decreased from 5.17 million tons in 2021 to 4.81 million tons in 2024 [3][28] - The current industry state is characterized by "high operating rates and low inventory," indicating potential price and profit recovery as the traditional demand peak season approaches [4][32] Summary by Sections 1. Viscose Staple Fiber as a Key Regenerated Fiber - Viscose fiber, particularly viscose staple fiber, dominates the regenerated fiber market, accounting for 80% of global production in 2023. In China, viscose staple fiber represents about 95% of the viscose fiber market [2][12] - The production process of viscose staple fiber involves significant environmental concerns, leading to constraints on new capacity due to environmental policies [3][25] 2. High Industry Concentration - The viscose staple fiber industry in China has a high concentration, with the top three companies (Sateri, Zhongtai Chemical, and Sanyou Chemical) holding a combined market share of 72% as of 2024 [3][28] - The industry has undergone consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the market share of leading companies [3][28] 3. Current Industry Dynamics - The viscose staple fiber industry is currently experiencing high operating rates (88.6% as of September 5, 2025) and low inventory levels (12.8 thousand tons), which are below the average levels from 2020 to 2024 [4][32] - The average inventory level is expected to decrease further as the traditional demand peak season approaches, indicating a potential for price recovery [4][32] 4. Downstream Demand - The primary applications of viscose staple fiber are in yarns and non-woven fabrics, with yarns being the main consumption area. From 2014 to 2024, the apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China grew from 2.93 million tons to 4.35 million tons, with a CAGR of 4.0% [5][37] - Non-woven fabric demand has significantly increased, with consumption rising from 351 thousand tons to 1.23 million tons between 2019 and 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 28.5% [5][37] 5. Focus on Leading Companies - Sanyou Chemical is noted for its differentiated product offerings, with an annual production capacity of 800 thousand tons, and holds a market share of approximately 17% [6][47] - Zhongtai Chemical benefits from an integrated circular economy model, with a production capacity of 880 thousand tons, making it the second-largest producer in China [6][47]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in China's naphtha production, with a reported output of 6.33 million tons in July 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1] - Cumulative naphtha production from January to July 2025 reached 46.181 million tons, showing a slight decline of 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating a comprehensive analysis of the naphtha industry in China [1] Group 2 - The article mentions several listed companies in the naphtha sector, including Sinopec (600028), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), and Donghua Energy (002221) among others [1] - Zhiyan Consulting has released a report titled "Market Supply and Demand Situation and Future Trend Analysis of China's Naphtha Industry from 2025 to 2031," which provides insights into the industry's future [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of industry research and consulting services in aiding investment decisions, showcasing Zhiyan Consulting's expertise in the field [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for viscose staple fiber is expected to grow steadily due to high cotton prices and strong downstream textile consumption [14][15] - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen capacity consolidation since 2021, leading to increased industry concentration [6][26] - The industry is currently experiencing high operating rates and low inventory levels, contributing to a rising price trend for viscose staple fiber [7][39] - The report recommends "Sanyou Chemical" as a key investment target and "Zhongtai Chemical" as a beneficiary of the price increase in viscose staple fiber [43][44] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [5][14] - The retail sales of clothing and textiles in China reached 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.10% [5][15] - The introduction of new spinning equipment, particularly vortex spinning, is expected to further drive demand for viscose staple fiber [19] Supply Side - The effective capacity of viscose staple fiber has decreased from a peak of 5.13 million tons in 2021 to 4.885 million tons in 2024, a decline of 4.8% [6][25] - The industry has seen minimal new capacity additions since 2021, with a current operating rate of 87.6% as of August 2025 [7][31] - The top three companies in the viscose staple fiber industry hold a combined market share (CR3) of 69.77%, indicating a high level of concentration [26][34] Price Dynamics - The price of viscose staple fiber has been increasing, supported by a favorable supply-demand balance, while the price of its main raw material, dissolving pulp, has been declining [39][41] - The price difference between viscose staple fiber and dissolving pulp has widened, indicating improved profitability for industry leaders [39][41] - The report anticipates that the price of viscose staple fiber will continue to rise due to strong downstream demand and seasonal factors [39][41]

Summary of Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Research Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three companies, Sidelong, Zhongtai Chemical, and Tangshan Sanyou, increasing their market share from 27% in 2014 to 72% in 2024, with Sidelong holding 37% [1][2] - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China is projected to grow from 3 million tons in 2014 to over 4.2 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [1][8] - The total production capacity of viscose staple fiber has gradually decreased since 2022, with a reduction of about 9% expected by the end of 2024, bringing total capacity to approximately 4.82 million tons, down from a peak of 4.85 million tons [1][5] Supply-Side Dynamics - The supply-side situation is characterized by capacity contraction, strict policy controls, and market structure optimization. Since 2022, there has been no new capacity added, and the overall capacity has decreased by about 10% over the past three years [2][5] - Policies have been implemented to restrict supply-side development, including the elimination of outdated capacity (approximately 550,000 to 560,000 tons) and raising energy consumption standards [6][2] - The industry currently operates at a high utilization rate of 85%-86%, with low inventory levels, which supports price increases during the traditional peak season [1][9] Demand-Side Trends - The demand for viscose staple fiber is closely linked to the textile and apparel sector's performance. The demand structure has shifted, with the proportion of cotton blended yarn decreasing and non-woven fabric demand increasing [3][8] - By 2024, cotton blended yarn is expected to account for 55% of downstream demand, down 22% from 2015, while non-woven fabric's share is projected to rise to 18% from just 3% in 2015 [8] - The price of viscose staple fiber is expected to rise due to the correlation with cotton prices, which have been increasing as cotton inventories reach a seven-year low [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with the top three companies now holding over 72% of the market share. The market concentration has increased from less than 30% in 2014 to 72% in 2024 [7][2] - Other companies with production capabilities include Jilin Chemical Fiber (120,000 tons) and Nanjing Chemical Fiber (80,000 tons), but the overall market remains highly concentrated [7][11] Price Trends - Over the past 20 years, viscose staple fiber has experienced four major price increases driven by various factors, including market acceptance, demand growth, and policy changes [10] Key Companies - Major companies in the viscose staple fiber sector include Sanyou Chemical, Zhongtai Chemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Nanjing Chemical Fiber, with Sanyou Chemical having the largest external sales at approximately 820,000 tons [11]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongtai Chemical increased by 2.06% on September 1, reaching 4.96 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 12.846 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 15.08%, with a 1.64% rise over the last five trading days, 6.21% over the last 20 days, and 5.08% over the last 60 days [2] - As of August 20, the number of shareholders for Zhongtai Chemical was 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period, with an average of 28,714 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 0.55% [2] Group 2 - Zhongtai Chemical's main business includes the production and sales of PVC resin and caustic soda, with revenue composition as follows: PVC 39.69%, caustic soda 14.99%, viscose yarn 14.83%, and other chemical products [2] - For the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical reported operating revenue of 13.955 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million CNY, an increase of 20.00% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.222 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 259 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Chemical (002092.SZ) reported a decline in revenue but a 20% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to improved gross profit margins despite ongoing losses [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 13.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194.1 million yuan, an improvement from -242.7 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - Investment losses significantly impacted overall performance, with investment income at -110.8 million yuan, accounting for 70.19% of total profit, primarily due to losses from joint ventures [2][4] Product Performance - The gross profit margins for core products PVC and viscose yarn were under pressure, with PVC's margin dropping to 9.31%, a decline of 33.24 percentage points compared to the first half of 2021 [6] - The textile industrial segment's viscose yarn revenue decreased by 5.2% to 2.07 billion yuan, with its gross margin falling to 0.37%, down 18.36 percentage points from the same period in 2021 [6] Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory balance reached 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.33%, with inventory write-down losses amounting to 51.23 million yuan, representing 32.44% of total profit [3] - Operating cash flow net amount dropped to 1.235 billion yuan, a significant decline of 54.72% year-on-year, while financing cash flow surged to 1.634 billion yuan, an increase of 296.91% [7][8] Debt and Liquidity - Zhongtai Chemical faced heavy debt burdens, with total liabilities rising to 51.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and an asset-liability ratio of 64.85%, up 3.48 percentage points [8] - The company had a cash balance of 7.249 billion yuan, with short-term borrowings of 5.216 billion yuan, indicating a liquidity gap of 9.7 billion yuan [8]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongtai Chemical has decreased by 2.01% on August 28, trading at 4.88 CNY per share with a total market capitalization of 12.639 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 13.23%, with a 2.31% rise over the last five trading days and a 4.05% increase over the last 20 days [2] - As of August 20, the number of shareholders for Zhongtai Chemical is 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period [2] Group 2 - Zhongtai Chemical's main business includes the production and sales of polyvinyl chloride resin and ion membrane caustic soda, with revenue contributions of 39.69% from polyvinyl chloride, 14.99% from caustic soda, and 14.83% from viscose yarn [2] - The company reported a revenue of 13.955 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million CNY, an increase of 20% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Zhongtai Chemical has distributed a total of 2.222 billion CNY in dividends, with 259 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]

Company Overview - Zhongtai Chemical is located in Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone, established on December 18, 2001, and listed on December 8, 2006 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of chemical products, including polyvinyl chloride resin and ion membrane caustic soda [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical achieved operating revenue of 13.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.00% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 2.222 billion yuan, with 259 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of August 25, Zhongtai Chemical's stock price increased by 2.10%, reaching 4.86 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 12.587 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 12.76%, with a 2.53% increase over the last five trading days [1] - The stock has experienced a 1.02% decline over the past 20 days and a 4.52% increase over the past 60 days [1] Shareholder Information - As of August 20, the number of shareholders is 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per person is 28,714, an increase of 0.55% from the previous period [2] Industry Classification - Zhongtai Chemical belongs to the basic chemical industry, specifically in the chemical raw materials and chlor-alkali sector [2] - The company is associated with several concept sectors, including cement, coal chemical, low-priced stocks, and Xinjiang revitalization [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Chemical has reported continuous losses for three consecutive years, with significant declines in both revenue and net profit, primarily due to a challenging market environment in the chlor-alkali industry and its textile business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical achieved operating revenue of 13.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 194 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 243 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - For the full year of 2023, the company reported an operating revenue of 37.118 billion yuan, down 28.15%, and a net loss of 2.865 billion yuan [2]. - In 2024, operating revenue further declined to 30.123 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.84%, with a net loss of 977 million yuan [2]. Industry Context - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing low overall market conditions, with significant price declines in PVC products impacting Zhongtai Chemical's performance [3][4]. - The price of liquid caustic soda fell dramatically from 3,000 yuan per ton in Q4 2024 to 852 yuan per ton by August 2025, leading to reduced profit margins for companies in the sector [3]. - The PVC powder market has shown a downward trend, with the average price for SG-5 (PVC powder) at 4,939 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, down 11.23% year-on-year [3]. Regulatory Issues - Zhongtai Chemical faced penalties for information disclosure violations, including financial fraud, leading to a fine of 5 million yuan and a warning from regulatory authorities [6][7]. - The company was found to have engaged in non-operating fund occupation transactions totaling 7.718 billion yuan between 2021 and 2022, significantly impacting its financial reporting [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition and eliminating outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in industrial product prices and positively impact PPI and CPI [6][11][17] - The report highlights the significant influence of the energy and chemical sectors on PPI, with their price fluctuations directly affecting overall industrial inflation levels [16] - The industry is under pressure from declining product prices and reduced capacity utilization, leading to a strong demand for anti-involution measures [17] - The current valuation of the chemical industry is at a historical low, providing substantial upside potential as the sector is expected to recover from its cyclical bottom [17][19] Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Inflation Recovery - The report emphasizes that the chemical sector is a crucial lever for inflation recovery, as evidenced by the PPI's continuous decline and the need for policy intervention to combat deflationary pressures [6][11] 2. Reasons to Focus on Chemicals - The energy and chemical sectors account for 25%-30% of PPI, making their price recovery vital for overall inflation [16] - The industry faces significant profitability challenges, with nearly 25% of chemical companies reporting losses in 2024 [17] 3. Paths for Anti-Involution in Chemicals 3.1. Active Approach: Industry Self-Regulation - Certain sub-industries, such as polyester filament and sucralose, are attempting to improve profitability through supply-side collaboration, benefiting from high concentration and low profitability [27][29] - The report identifies key chemical products likely to benefit from self-regulation, including polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and organic silicon [29][31] 3.2. Passive Approach: Policy-Driven Industry Improvement - The report outlines a dual-track policy framework focusing on optimizing existing capacity and strictly controlling new projects to enhance the competitive landscape [27][31] - Historical experiences suggest that effective policy measures will include phasing out outdated facilities and enforcing stricter environmental regulations [27][31]