股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.14 猪周期：一轮去产能的大周期 [Table_Industry] 农业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 我们认为 26 年猪价将低于市场预期，行业将进入亏损。猪周期将迎来一轮大的去产 能周期，股价也将迎来空间更大的上涨。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 农业《多家种企业绩回升，看好种植景气回升》 2026.02.01 农业《仔猪价格的秘密》2026.01.31 农业《玉米价格持续上涨，关注种植景气修复》 2026.01.25 农业《维持低 ...

饲料原料：玉米、豆粕价格变化不构成养殖成本显著压力 1月我国玉米现货均价2364.6元/吨，环比+0.69%，同比+10.55%。结合价格走势规律以及潜在供需关 系，该行认为26年玉米价格以区间震荡格局为主，均价或略高于25年同期。1月我国豆粕现货均价 3198.97元/吨，环比+1.94%，同比+3.82%。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，持续重点强调生猪养殖行业的攻守兼备布局机会， 基 于能繁母猪作用值及养殖效率的考虑，26 年猪价同比下行，期间或有所反弹表现;综合考虑政策去产能 以及行业亏损去产能，重点关注成本边际变化显著、资金面良好的优质猪企，推荐牧原股份牧原股份 (002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)、神农集团(605296.SH)、天康生物(002100.SZ)。关注德康农牧 (02419)。此外可关注饲料龙头企业海大集团(002311.SZ)。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 12月CPI环比向好，猪肉现拖累效应 12月我国CPI同比+0.8%(前值+0.7%)，其中食品项同比+1.1%(影响CPI同比上升约0.21pct)，食品中猪肉 同比-14.6%。从环比来看，1 ...

2026 年 02 月 09 日 公司点评 买入/维持 天康生物(002100) 目标价: 昨收盘:7.12 天康业绩预告点评：全产业链韧性支撑底部企稳，并购驱动扩张 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 25/2/10 25/4/23 25/7/4 25/9/14 25/11/25 26/2/5 天康生物 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 13.65/13.65 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 97.21/97.21 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 8.24/6.07 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<天康生物：生猪业务量增本降，饲 料销量保持增长>>--2025-10-31 <<天康生物中报点评：养殖产业链业 务量增利升，饲料和动保保持平 稳>>--2025-09-13 <<中报点评：生猪养殖降本成效显 著，饲料疫苗后周期动力充足>>-- 2022-08-26 饲料和动保等其他业务运行平稳，全产业链韧性支撑底部企稳。2025 年公司饲料业务销量较上年同期略有增长；兽用生物制品业务营收较上年 同期略有下滑，主要受行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, particularly in the beef and dairy markets, driven by domestic and international demand [3] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to stabilize due to capacity control measures, benefiting leading companies with improved cash flow and cost advantages [3] - Poultry supply is expected to remain stable, with potential for increased cash flow returns for leading enterprises as demand recovers [3] - The feed industry is likely to see enhanced competitive advantages for leading companies due to deeper industrialization and specialization [3] - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to continue rising, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 8.15% year-on-year [2] - Dairy cow depopulation is likely to accelerate, with raw milk prices expected to reach a turning point in 2026 [2] - The pig price on February 6, 2026, was 12.05 CNY/kg, down 1.31% week-on-week and down 20.67% year-on-year [13] Poultry - Chicken supply has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [13] - Egg prices in major production areas were 3.44 CNY/jin, up 6.83% week-on-week and up 19.44% year-on-year [13] Feed - Soybean meal prices are at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade factors [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with a current price of 2331 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week but up 8.52% year-on-year [2] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include YouRan MuYe and Modern MuYe [3] - Recommended pig farming companies include HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, and MuYuan Co. [3] - Recommended poultry companies include LiHua Co. and YiSheng Co. [3] - Recommended feed company is HaiDa Group [3] - Recommended pet company is GuaiBao Pet [3]

Group 1 - Jinwei Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 100% equity of Fusheng Mining for 210 million yuan, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary and included in the consolidated financial statements [2] - Mengguli intends to invest 929 million yuan to build a project with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium-ion battery cathode materials, expected to produce 5,000 tons of high-voltage cobalt acid lithium, 10,000 tons of NCA materials, and 15,000 tons of ultra-high nickel ternary materials [2] - Xiamen Tungsten plans to acquire 39% equity of Jiujiang Dadi Mining, which will help increase mineral resource reserves and improve raw material self-sufficiency [3] Group 2 - Andavil's subsidiary received EASA certification for its aviation kitchen plug-in products, marking compliance with European aviation safety standards [2] - CIMC Vehicles disclosed that the US ITC made a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigations regarding Van-Type Trailers, indicating potential damage to the US domestic industry [4] - Source Technology plans to invest approximately 1.251 billion yuan to build a second phase project for the R&D and production of optoelectronic communication semiconductor chips and devices [9] Group 3 - Zhongmin Energy intends to acquire 51% equity of Mintou Pumped Storage for 864 million yuan, with the transaction price based on asset evaluation [10] - Ningbo Yunsheng plans to publicly issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11] - Wenkai Co., Ltd. won a bid for a landscape project worth 50.8162 million yuan [12] Group 4 - China Merchants Shekou achieved a signed sales amount of 7.674 billion yuan in January 2026 [16] - AVIC Optoelectronics reported a net profit of 2.124 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 36.69% [17] - Tiankang Bio reported a sales revenue of 392 million yuan from pig sales in January 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 6.23% [18] Group 5 - Poly Developments reported a signed amount of 15.617 billion yuan in January 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 13.31% [19] - Chengtou Holdings reported a net profit of 290 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.67% [20] - Qianjin Pharmaceutical reported a net profit of 288 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.74% [21]

证券日报网讯2月9日，天康生物（002100）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将继续紧跟国家政 策导向，立足主营业务，稳妥推进技术创新与应用，努力以优异的业绩回报广大投资者的信任。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 郭秀娟 王悦彤） 2月9日，天康生物发布公告称，2026年1月份公司销售生猪30万 头，销量环比增长1.39%，同比增长0.67%；销售收入3.92亿元，销售收入环比增长6.23%，同比下降 6.22%。2026年1月份商品猪（扣除仔猪、种猪后）销售均价11.78元/公斤，环比增长10.51%。 ...

格隆汇2月9日｜天康生物公告，公司2026年1月份销售生猪30.00万头，销量环比增长1.39%，同比增长 0.67%；销售收入3.92亿元，销售收入环比增长6.23%，同比下降6.22%。2026年1月份商品猪（扣除仔 猪、种猪后）销售均价11.78元/公斤，环比增长10.51%。 ...

格隆汇2月9日丨天康生物(002100.SZ)公布，公司本次将以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，回购股份 的资金总额不超过(含)人民币2亿元且不低于(含)人民币1亿元；回购股份的种类为公司发行的A股股 份；回购股份价格不超过(含)人民币36.91元/股，按此次回购资金最高人民币2亿元测算，预计可回购股 份数量为541.86万股，约占公司目前总股本的0.25%；按此次回购资金最低人民币1亿元测算，预计可回 购股份数量为270.93万股，约占公司目前总股本的0.13%。回购期限自董事会审议通过回购股份方案之 日起不超过十二个月，具体回购数量及回购金额以回购期满或回购完毕时实际回购的股份数量和回购金 额为准，回购股份用于后期实施股权激励计划、员工持股计划。 ...

格隆汇2月9日丨天康生物(002100.SZ)公布，公司2026年1月份销售生猪30.00万头，销量环比增长 1.39%，同比增长0.67%；销售收入3.92亿元，销售收入环比增长6.23%，同比下降6.22%。2026年1月份 商品猪（扣除仔猪、种猪后）销售均价11.78元/公斤，环比增长10.51%。 ...