Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The commercial retail and social services indices reported declines of 4.18% and 3.45% respectively during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, ranking 26th and 23rd among 31 primary industries [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Key Industry Developments - HBN, established in 2019, is recognized as the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy skincare segment, with a market share of 0.8% in the Chinese improvement skincare market as of 2024 [24][25] - HBN's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with high-efficacy skincare products accounting for 78.6% of total revenue [29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [6][49] - Investment Theme 2: Highlighting retail companies that adapt to emotional value and intelligent trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasizing beauty and personal care brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][50] - Investment Theme 4: Targeting differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Meilitiantian [6][51]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Li Ning, Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and others [9][21][29]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a low overall fund holding ratio, with a total market value of approximately 9.76 billion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, slightly down from 10.31 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2025. However, the proportion of heavy holdings increased from 0.13% to 0.25% [1][12]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector, predicting it will outperform the broader apparel market in the long term. Companies like Li Ning and Anta Sports are expected to manage inventory effectively and benefit from upcoming marketing initiatives [2][17]. - The report emphasizes the healthy inventory levels in the industry, anticipating that stable replenishment from downstream will lead to increased orders for upstream manufacturers [3][18]. - The report suggests focusing on quality stocks with stable growth or potential for performance reversal, particularly in the brand apparel segment, where companies like HLA and Luolai Living are highlighted for their growth prospects [4][19]. Summary by Sections Fund Position Analysis - The textile and apparel sector's fund holding ratio remains low, with significant increases in holdings across sub-sectors such as home textiles, textile manufacturing, and accessories [1][12][15]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with declines noted in both textile manufacturing and brand apparel segments [24][25]. Key Company Recommendations - Li Ning is recommended due to its expected brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with projected profits of 2.74 billion yuan in 2025 and a growth forecast for 2026 [2][17]. - Anta Sports is highlighted for its strong operational capabilities, with expected profits of 13.2 billion yuan in 2025 and growth in 2026 [2][17]. - Shenzhou International is recommended for its cost-effectiveness and positive customer trends, with a projected PE ratio of 11 times for 2026 [3][18]. - HLA is expected to see stable profit growth, with a projected PE ratio of 12 times for 2026 [4][19].

作者：行情君 本文源自：市场资讯 2月1日10点，国际金价报4860.3美元/盎司，国际钯金报1698.5美元/盎司，国际银价报84.42美元/盎司， 国内金价报1125.0元/克。 根据国内主要品牌金店报价，周大福价格最高为1625元/克，老凤祥价格最低为1498元/克；周生生今日 黄金价格1618元/克，六福珠宝今日黄金价格1625元/克，谢瑞麟今日黄金价格1625元/克，金至尊今日黄 金价格1625元/克，潮宏基今日黄金价格1625元/克，菜百首饰今日黄金价格1552元/克，老庙黄金今日黄 金价格1546元/克，中国黄金今日黄金价格1552元/克，周六福今日黄金价格1620元/克。 ...

Group 1: Event Overview - The investor relations activity took place on January 29, 2026, at the company headquarters, attended by 8 representatives from various institutions including Western Securities and Zhongtai Securities [1]. - The event included a tour of the company exhibition hall, Zhenbao Museum, and a visit to the Chaohongji jewelry stores and "Zhen" experience center [1]. Group 2: Q&A Session Highlights - Participants engaged in discussions regarding the company's brand matrix, performance forecasts, and the "One City, One Intangible Cultural Heritage" initiative [1]. - Topics also included store opening status, overseas store conditions, product structure changes, new product planning, e-commerce business, women's bag business, and the impact of gold price fluctuations [1]. - The communication adhered strictly to regulations, with no incidents of information leakage reported [2].

老凤祥B 老凤祥 潮宏基 周大生 老铺黄金 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 3.49 -0.04 -1.05% 1.05% 0.77% 0.48% 0.09% 0.37% 0.65% 1.22% 3.49 3.50 3.51 3.53 3.54 3.55 3.57 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 1万 2万 3万 华夏时报记者 周梦婷 北京报道 国际现货黄金价格再攀新高。1月28日，伦敦金现再次大涨，突破5200美元/盎司，并在下午一度突破 5300美元/盎司。与此同时，国内黄金珠宝首饰企业们足金饰品价格也都涨到了1600元/克的新高度，像 老凤祥（600612）足金饰品已经达到1620元/克。然而，黄金高涨并没有浇灭消费者买金热情，1月28日 下午4点多，记者实地走访北京王府井（600859）附近金店发现，像周大福、周大生（002867）、潮宏 基（002345）等门店皆有顾客光顾，且店员也对记者表示，"这段时间黄金首饰产品卖的挺好的。" 过去两年中，现货黄金价格持续上涨，一度给周大福等以按克计价产品为主的金饰企业带来业绩压力。 随着金价上涨逐渐常态化，如何实现可 ...

证券日报网讯1月29日，潮宏基（002345）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2025年营业收入请留意 后续披露的定期报告。 ...

潮宏基黄金价格月度统计（1月1日-1月29日，单位：元/克） | 当日价 | 1706 | | --- | --- | | 日涨幅 | 5.44% | | 最高价 | 1706 | | 最低价 | 1357 | | 顶位差 | 0 | | 底位差 | 349 | | 平均值 | 1461 | 1月29日，潮宏基黄金价格报1706元/克，与上一日（1618元/克）相比，上涨了88元/克，涨幅5.44%，与 本月初（1357元/克）相比，上涨了349元/克，涨幅25.72%。较本月最高价相差0元/克，较本月最低价相 差349元/克，均价1461元/克。 摘要1月29日，潮宏基黄金价格报1706元/克，与上一日（1618元/克）相比，上涨了88元/克，涨幅 5.44%，与本月初（1357元/克）相比，上涨了349元/克，涨幅25.72%。较本月最高价相差0元/克，较本 月最低价相差349元/克，均价1461元/克。 ...

1月28日晚间，黄金牛股们集体提示短期涨幅较大，可能存在下跌的风险。 快速拉升后警惕回调 在A股市场上，贵金属和有色金属板块持续引领涨停潮，鉴于近期涨幅过大，黄金概念股于昨日晚间集 体提示风险。 股价已实现"5连板"的中国黄金1月28日晚间公告称，公司已股票连续4个交易日涨停，期间累计涨幅 46.42%，上证指数同期累计涨幅0.70%，公司股价上涨幅度已显著偏离指数，股票交易存在市场情绪过 热情形，可能存在短期涨幅较大后的下跌风险。 中国黄金称，该公司主营业务未发生变化，主要从事黄金珠宝首饰研发、加工、零售、批发及回购等， 未拥有探矿权、采矿权。 "10天7板"的四川黄金亦公告称，股价已连续2个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，连续10个交 易日的收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过100%，属于异常波动和严重异常波动。 导语 伦敦金现逼近5600美元，刷新历史纪录。 连日来，贵金属、有色金属行情持续爆发。Wind数据显示，黄金珠宝指数本周涨幅18.77%、本月涨 45.18%，而同期沪深300涨幅分别为0.33%和1.90%。21只贵金属成分股中，有20只本周以来涨幅超过 10%，其中，8只涨幅超过30%。 不 ...