Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks experienced an upward trend, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rising by 3.78% to HKD 64.6 and Tianqi Lithium (09696) increasing by 3.58% to HKD 56.35 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 6% earlier in the day, with the main contract reaching CNY 164,380 per ton, reflecting strong market dynamics [1] - The price increase in lithium carbonate is attributed to supply-side disruptions, particularly delays in the resumption of production at the Yichun lithium mica mine, affecting local suppliers [1] Group 2 - The demand side is also contributing to price increases, driven by export tax adjustment policies that have heightened enthusiasm among downstream companies for exporting [1] - The combined effects of supply and demand fundamentals are propelling prices upward in the lithium market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant gains in related ETFs and stocks [1][5]. Market Performance - As of January 21, the non-ferrous metal sector is showing robust performance, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector include: - Shandong Gold up 4.54% - Ganfeng Lithium up 3.10% - Northern Rare Earth up 1.63% [2][5]. Commodity Prices - On January 21, COMEX gold and spot gold both surpassed the $4800 mark, each increasing by over 1%, reaching historical highs [3]. - LME copper is also on the rise, currently up by 0.6% [3]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are heightening, leading to increased risk aversion in the market [3]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's political independence is under scrutiny, particularly with Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony [3]. Policy Developments - On January 20, multiple departments introduced an action plan to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to improve the international competitiveness of the "Shanghai price" [3]. Investment Opportunities - Oriental Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on industrial metals, predicting a strategic opportunity in the copper sector due to supply constraints and improving smelting fees [4]. - The report suggests that the copper market is expected to benefit from a recovery in production from major mines, which could enhance profit margins for smelting companies [4]. Strategic Insights - The current economic climate is characterized by a "spiral down" phase, highlighting copper's strategic importance as a key metal amid global economic shifts [6]. - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the AI revolution, with projections indicating an additional demand of approximately 79-170 thousand tons by 2030 from data center expansions alone [6]. ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is noted for its high copper content (34%) and gold content (12%), making it a leading choice in the sector [8]. - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases [10].

锂矿股早盘上扬，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)涨3.78%，报64.6港元；天齐锂业（002466） (09696)涨3.58%，报56.35港元。 消息面上，继昨日涨停后，碳酸锂期货今早再一度涨超6%。截至发稿，碳酸锂期货主力合约涨超5%， 达164380元/吨。华泰期货认为，昨日碳酸锂涨停走势主要是受到锂矿供给端干扰预期影响，市场对于 宜春锂云母矿产供应复产预期又有所推迟，且涉及面波及当地其他各家。此外，需求端出口退税调整政 策引发下游企业抢出口的热情仍在继续。基本面供需两端共同发力，推动了价格上行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy metals sector experienced a slight increase of 0.44% on January 20, with significant contributions from companies like BQX New Materials, while the overall market indices showed minor declines [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1]. - BQX New Materials led the energy metals sector with a closing price of 73.99, reflecting a rise of 6.77% [1]. - Other notable performers included Zangge Mining, which rose by 1.61% to 91.45, and Tianqi Lithium, which increased by 1.50% to 59.49 [1]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - BQX New Materials had a trading volume of 283,400 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 2.103 billion yuan [1]. - Tianqi Lithium recorded a trading volume of 485,000 shares with a transaction value of 2.862 billion yuan [1]. - The total trading volume and values for other companies in the sector varied, with Shengton Mining and Ganfeng Lithium also showing significant transaction values of 2.556 billion yuan and 3.803 billion yuan, respectively [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 521 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 193 million yuan [2]. - The sector's capital flow indicated that speculative funds had a net inflow of 328 million yuan [2]. - Specific companies like Shengxin Lithium and Tianqi Lithium experienced varied capital flows, with Shengxin Lithium seeing a net inflow of 14 million yuan from institutional investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a collective pullback in major indices, with significant declines in copper and gold prices, while emerging sectors like AI data centers are driving long-term demand for non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, major indices have collectively retreated, with copper prices experiencing a sharp drop and gold prices slightly declining [1]. - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), fell by 0.2%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 2.31%, and the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) dropped by 2.34% [1]. - The trading volume was active, with a turnover of 216 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.49%, indicating potential fund accumulation [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand Drivers - Non-ferrous metal ETFs have seen continuous net inflows over the past 18 days, totaling 10.774 billion yuan [1]. - Emerging fields like AI data centers are becoming core demand drivers for non-ferrous metals, with significant reliance on copper and aluminum for power and cooling systems [1]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported in the long term due to "AI capital expenditure growth" and global energy transition trends [1]. Group 3: Industrial Product Price Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, market expectations for short-term interest rate cuts have been dampened following statements from Trump, leading to weakened financial support for industrial product prices [2]. - Increased domestic inventory and lower downstream processing rates have contributed to negative feedback for major industrial products like copper and aluminum [2]. - Despite short-term volatility, strong support for industrial products is anticipated due to internal and external policy expectations, with some inventories at historically low levels [2]. Group 4: ETF Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, leading to a sharp increase in lithium carbonate prices, which have surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton and are projected to reach 200,000 yuan per ton in 2026 [4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance Comparison - Ganfeng Lithium has diversified its lithium resource sources and expanded downstream into battery production, while Tianqi Lithium primarily benefits from its mining assets [5][10]. - In terms of revenue, Ganfeng Lithium has shown a consistent upward trend, surpassing Tianqi Lithium in 2019 and maintaining a lead in recent years, with a revenue of 146 billion yuan compared to Tianqi's 74 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [8][10]. - Despite Ganfeng's revenue growth, Tianqi Lithium has outperformed in terms of profitability, particularly due to its mining operations, which yield higher margins compared to Ganfeng's battery business [37][41]. Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Analysis - Ganfeng's revenue from lithium products reached 345.8 billion yuan in 2022, accounting for 83% of total revenue, while its battery segment generated 64.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 220.3% year-on-year growth [13]. - In 2024, Ganfeng's revenue dropped to 45.2% of its 2022 figures, with lithium product revenue at 120.2 billion yuan, a 50.9% decline, while battery revenue decreased by 23.5% to 59 billion yuan [14]. - Tianqi Lithium's mining operations generated significant profits, with a gross profit of 130 billion yuan in 2022 and a gross profit margin of 84%, while Ganfeng's lithium compound gross profit was 215 billion yuan with a margin of 85.9% [34][37]. Group 3: Resource Diversification and Market Dynamics - Ganfeng Lithium has established a diversified resource supply system, achieving over 50% self-sufficiency in lithium resources by 2025, while Tianqi's self-sufficiency exceeds 200% due to its extensive mining operations [25][30]. - The global lithium resource supply is projected to reach approximately 1.438 million tons by 2025, with a notable increase in the production of spodumene (lithium ore) compared to brine lithium [23]. - The volatility in lithium prices has led to fluctuating profit margins for both companies, with Ganfeng's battery business becoming increasingly important for maintaining profitability during periods of low lithium prices [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements and production timelines of solid-state batteries from various companies, highlighting the competitive landscape and technological progress leading up to 2026 and beyond [4]. Group 1: Company Developments - CATL launched the world's first sulfide solid-state battery pilot line in Hefei in May 2025, achieving an energy density of 450Wh/kg, with plans to expand production capacity to 50GWh by 2026 [6]. - Guoxuan High-Tech introduced its "Guan" quasi-solid-state square aluminum shell cell with an energy density greater than 300Wh/kg and initiated a pilot line with a 90% yield rate in May 2025 [8]. - EVE Energy's solid-state battery, "Longquan No. 2," achieved an energy density of 300Wh/kg and is aimed at high-end applications like humanoid robots and low-altitude aircraft [8]. - Aoxin Technology plans to launch its polymer solid-state battery with an energy density of 400Wh/kg by the end of 2025, targeting high-end new energy vehicles [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium announced the mass production of lithium sulfide, completing the last link in the solid-state battery ecosystem, with plans to launch solid-state batteries by the end of 2025 [9]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The solid-state battery industry is expected to enter a critical year in 2026, with many companies racing to achieve mass production [4]. - The article outlines the competitive landscape, with over 30 companies making significant strides in solid-state battery technology, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the sector [4]. - The anticipated commercialization of solid-state batteries is projected for around 2030, as supply chains mature and production processes are refined [6].

Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks continue to decline, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) down 3.62% at HKD 61.2 and Tianqi Lithium (09696) down 2.44% at HKD 54.05 [1] - On January 19, lithium carbonate futures main contract fell over 3%, currently at CNY 148,000 per ton [1] - Last week, the main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a volatile downward trend, hitting a limit down of CNY 146,200 per ton, with a daily decline of approximately 9% [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Futures, the rapid price increase in the first half of the week led to sufficient market expectations for increased export demand, but strong regulatory measures caused a quick market sentiment reversal [1] - Overall macroeconomic sentiment adjustment and a decline in the commodity market accelerated the drop in lithium prices [1]

Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks continue to decline, with Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) down 3.62% at HKD 61.2 and Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) down 2.44% at HKD 54.05 [1] - On January 19, lithium carbonate futures main contract fell over 3%, currently at CNY 148,000 per ton [1] - Last week, the main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a volatile downward trend, hitting a limit down of CNY 146,200 per ton, with a daily decline of approximately 9% [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Futures, the rapid price increase in the first half of the week led to sufficient market expectations for increased export demand, but strong regulatory measures caused a quick market sentiment reversal [1] - The overall macro sentiment adjustment and the decline in the commodity market accelerated the drop in lithium prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].