Core Viewpoint - The recent quarterly reports from listed companies reveal a significant shift in investment strategies among prominent private equity managers, with an increased focus on cyclical industries and a need to monitor fundamental developments, policy benefits, and industrial upgrades as core themes [1][4]. Private Equity Holdings - Gao Yi Asset's Feng Liu significantly reduced holdings in Hikvision by 58 million shares, retaining 280 million shares valued at 8.826 billion yuan, making it the fourth-largest shareholder [1]. - Renqiao Asset's Xia Junjie maintained positions in several stocks while slightly reducing holdings in Xingfu Electronics and increasing stakes in Beijing Renli [1]. - Ningquan Asset's Yang Dong entered as the eighth-largest shareholder in Fuanna with 6.0512 million shares valued at 4.2 million yuan [2]. - Ruijun Asset's funds became top shareholders in Dinglong Co., while also increasing stakes in other companies [2]. Increased Focus on Cyclical Industries - Gao Yi Asset's Deng Xiaofeng reduced holdings in Zijin Mining by approximately 18.6 million shares, still holding 180 million shares valued at 5.3 billion yuan, with a significant gain of about 1.5 billion yuan from the position [3]. - The same fund also reduced its stake in Yun Aluminum, holding 28.5 million shares valued at 1.164 billion yuan [3]. Policy Benefits and Industrial Upgrades - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4,000 points, reflecting improved market sentiment and recognition of the value reassessment cycle in Chinese equity assets [4]. - Fengjing Capital noted that economic data remains resilient, with expectations for moderate improvement in fixed investment growth due to policy initiatives [4]. - Ning Shui Capital emphasized the importance of policy benefits and industrial upgrades as core investment themes while advising caution regarding high valuations [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's international expansion in titanium dioxide (TiO2) and the potential for capacity expansion at the mining end, despite the current pressure on Q3 earnings [1] - The company reported a revenue of 19.451 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.674 billion yuan, down 34.68% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates a recovery in titanium dioxide prices as demand stabilizes, while titanium concentrate prices are expected to remain high due to a tight supply-demand balance [2][3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.088 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.88 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 21.4 times [4] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 28.308 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.231 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4] - The gross margin is projected to decline to 21.5% in 2025 but is expected to recover to 26.9% by 2027 [4] Market and Operational Insights - The average market price for titanium dioxide in Q3 2025 was 13,386 yuan per ton, down 8.3% from Q2, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - The company is actively pursuing internationalization by expanding its overseas market share and establishing production bases abroad, including potential acquisitions and new subsidiaries in Malaysia and the UK [3] - The integration of two mining projects is expected to enhance raw material security and support future capacity growth [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.67 billion yuan, down 34.7% year-on-year [6][12]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 6.11 billion yuan, a decline of 13.7% year-on-year and 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 290 million yuan, down 65.7% year-on-year and 58.6% quarter-on-quarter [6][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [6][12]. - The titanium dioxide industry is under pressure domestically, but the company is expected to stand out in international markets [12]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown significant declines in 2025, with Q3 net profit dropping by 65.7% year-on-year [6][12]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness and expanding its global presence through strategic acquisitions [12]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, having distributed over 19.3 billion yuan since its listing [12]. Industry Context - The titanium dioxide industry is experiencing an imbalance in supply and demand, with prices continuing to decline [12]. - The company is actively pursuing an overseas expansion strategy to mitigate the impact of domestic market challenges, including anti-dumping investigations from various countries [12]. - The company is also investing in new energy sectors, which are expected to contribute positively to its profitability in the future [12].

Core Insights - The global titanium dioxide market is experiencing significant dynamics, including fluctuations in corporate performance and international policy adjustments, leading to an evolving competitive landscape in the industry [1] Price Adjustments - A new round of price increases for titanium dioxide has been initiated by several companies, including Longbai Group and Haifengxin, with domestic prices raised by 300 CNY/ton and international prices by 40-50 USD/ton, marking the sixth price surge since mid-August [2] Corporate Performance - Longbai Group reported a notable decline in performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 19.436 billion CNY, down 6.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.674 billion CNY, down 34.68%. The third quarter alone saw a dramatic drop in revenue to 6.105 billion CNY, a 13.71% decrease, and net profit plummeting to 289 million CNY, a 65.66% decline [3] International Expansion - Longbai Group is accelerating its overseas expansion by establishing subsidiaries in Malaysia and the UK, with investments of 5 million USD and 50 million USD respectively. Additionally, it plans to acquire assets related to Venator UK's titanium dioxide business for 69.9 million USD, aiming to enhance its international market share and optimize the global supply chain [5] Trade Policies - The Eurasian Economic Commission has imposed a five-year anti-dumping tax on titanium dioxide from China, with rates set at 14.27% for Longbai Group and 16.25% for other Chinese producers. Some companies have received exemptions based on price commitments [6][7] Industry Consolidation - Huiyun Titanium Industry has acquired a 35% stake in Detian Chemical for 30.625 million CNY, reflecting a trend of industry consolidation under cost pressures and aiming to enhance upstream resource control and market competitiveness [8] Price Increases by Competitors - Chemours announced a price increase for titanium dioxide products in the Asia-Pacific region, effective December 1, 2025, with increases of 100 USD/ton for plastics and 150 USD/ton for coatings and paper products, likely driven by rising raw material costs and regional demand changes [10] Anti-Dumping Measures in Brazil - Brazil's foreign trade committee has decided to impose a five-year anti-dumping tax on Chinese rutile titanium dioxide, with rates between 1,148.72 and 1,267.74 USD/ton, while allowing certain technical exceptions for specific products used in melamine decorative laminate base paper [13]

Core Viewpoint - Longbai Group reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to falling titanium dioxide prices and low industry demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 19.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.87% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was 1.618 billion yuan, down 35.97% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 6.109 billion yuan, a decline of 13.73% year-on-year and 2.76% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit for Q3 was 272 million yuan, a significant drop of 68.12% year-on-year [1]. Industry Analysis - The decline in Longbai Group's performance is attributed to a decrease in titanium dioxide prices, with the average price for the first three quarters of 2025 at 14,120.02 yuan/ton, down 11.01% year-on-year [2]. - Q3 2025 saw an average price of 13,386.09 yuan/ton, reflecting a 13.10% year-on-year decrease and an 8.26% quarter-on-quarter decline [2]. - National production of titanium dioxide for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.3651 million tons, down 3.48% year-on-year [2]. - Q3 production was 1.06 million tons, a decrease of 9.61% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 was -1,317.96 yuan/ton, a decline of 181.51% year-on-year [2]. Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 237.08 million yuan, to enhance shareholder returns [3]. Strategic Moves - Longbai Group's subsidiary, Bailian Europe, plans to acquire assets related to titanium dioxide from Venator UK for 69.9 million USD, indicating a strategic move towards global expansion [3][4]. - The acquisition includes land, buildings, machinery, and inventory, with an estimated tax liability of about 14.19 million USD [3]. Earnings Forecast - Due to the downturn in the titanium dioxide industry, the company's revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 26.504 billion, 29.329 billion, and 29.609 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.946 billion, 2.609 billion, and 3.317 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 1.09, and 1.39 yuan per share [5]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating a potential recovery in profitability due to capacity expansion and overseas acquisitions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in titanium dioxide profitability and reduced titanium concentrate production caused by mine maintenance [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.674 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.70 yuan, down 34.7% year-on-year, which was below expectations [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 6.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year and 2.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was 1.188 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 fell to 19.4%, a decline of 6.4 and 5.1 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively, due to falling titanium dioxide prices and rising sulfuric acid costs [1] Development Trends - The company announced plans to acquire Venator's UK titanium dioxide assets, which includes a 150,000 tons/year chlorination titanium dioxide plant for a transaction price of $69.9 million, aiming to enhance its global industrial layout [2] - The establishment of a subsidiary in Malaysia is also planned, which is expected to further promote international development and increase global market share [2] - New titanium concentrate production capacity is anticipated to drive profit growth, with an expected capacity of 2.48 million tons by 2026 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the decline in titanium dioxide profitability, the company has lowered its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 23% and 15% to 0.91 and 1.50 yuan per share, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21.0 and 12.7 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] - The target price is maintained at 23 yuan, indicating a 20% upside potential, with P/E ratios of 25 and 15 times for 2025 and 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Longbai Group reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the titanium dioxide market and overall industry performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Longbai Group achieved revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 289 million yuan, down 66% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 19.4%, a decrease of 6 percentage points year-on-year and 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.436 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.674 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions - The titanium dioxide market remains at a low point, with prices for various titanium products showing significant declines: titanium concentrate at 1,707 yuan/ton (-23% YoY), sulfuric acid titanium dioxide at 13,725 yuan/ton (-12% YoY), and chlorinated titanium dioxide at 17,492 yuan/ton (-11% YoY) [2]. - The company faced pressure from increased supply of titanium iron ore and weak downstream demand, which negatively impacted the price differentials in the industry [2]. Export Dynamics - In Q3, titanium ore and concentrate imports were nearly 1.2 million tons, down 12% year-on-year, while titanium dioxide exports were approximately 430,000 tons, down 8% year-on-year but up 3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The temporary cancellation of anti-dumping duties by India is expected to provide short-term benefits for domestic exports, with increased activity anticipated as overseas Christmas stocking begins [2]. Strategic Developments - Longbai Group's subsidiary, Bailian Europe, plans to acquire assets related to titanium dioxide from Venator UK for $69.9 million, which includes land, equipment, and intellectual property [3]. - This acquisition aims to enhance production efficiency, reduce costs, and expand the company's global footprint in the titanium dioxide market [3]. Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 2.03 billion, 3.40 billion, and 3.89 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "recommended" investment rating [4].

Market Overview - The chemical raw materials sector experienced a decline of 1.15% on October 28, with Shilong Industrial leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3988.22, down 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13430.1, down 0.44% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the chemical raw materials sector included: - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. (603067) with a closing price of 19.82, up 6.90% [1] - Shanshui Technology (301190) at 23.85, up 4.93% [1] - Boyuan Chemical (000683) at 6.50, up 4.84% [1] - Major decliners included: - Shilong Industrial (002748) at 15.50, down 8.39% [2] - Longbai Group (002601) at 18.20, down 4.91% [2] - Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618) at 10.58, down 4.60% [2] Capital Flow - The chemical raw materials sector saw a net outflow of 718 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 630 million yuan [2] - The sector's overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors remained active [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. (603067) with a net inflow of 57.74 million yuan from main funds [3] - Boyuan Chemical (000683) with a net inflow of 46.66 million yuan from main funds [3] - Hongxing Development (600367) with a net inflow of 16.16 million yuan from main funds [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Longbai Group's stock price has dropped by 5.02%, currently trading at 18.18 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 43.383 billion yuan [1] - Longbai Group, established on August 20, 1998, and listed on July 15, 2011, is primarily engaged in the production and sales of titanium dioxide, zirconium products, and aluminum sulfate [1] - The main revenue composition of Longbai Group includes titanium dioxide (64.99%), sponge titanium (11.17%), iron-based products (8.77%), and other segments [1] Group 2 - According to data, Guotai Fund holds a significant position in Longbai Group through its fund, Guotai CSI Sub-Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF (516220), which reduced its holdings by 2,700 shares in the second quarter [2] - The current holding of Guotai CSI Sub-Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF is 198,100 shares, accounting for 2.75% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund has a total scale of 1.17 billion yuan and has achieved a return of 22.97% this year, ranking 2,595 out of 4,218 in its category [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.45 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.67 billion RMB, down 35% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the titanium dioxide sector, showing resilience in profitability during the industry's downturn [1][4]. - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion and has announced a dividend of 0.1 RMB per share for Q3, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 290 million RMB, down 66% year-on-year and 59% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to rising raw material costs [1][2]. - The average price of titanium dioxide in Q3 2025 was 13,230 RMB/ton for the sulfate method and 17,300 RMB/ton for the chloride method, showing a year-on-year decline of 13% and 6% respectively [2][3]. - The company's comprehensive gross margin decreased by 4.7 percentage points year-on-year to 22.3% for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Market Outlook - The titanium dioxide market remains weak, but the company is expected to benefit from its integrated cost advantages and ongoing development of its mining projects [3][4]. - The company plans to acquire overseas titanium dioxide assets to mitigate the impact of anti-dumping measures from the EU, enhancing its international presence [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 2.1 billion RMB, 3.0 billion RMB, and 3.5 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - The target price is set at 21.59 RMB, based on a 17x PE for 2026, reflecting the company's strong profitability resilience [4][11].